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The "end of the world" hypothesis has returned to widespread circulation on social media platforms and a number of Arab media outlets, with the approach of Friday, November 13, 2026, a date that was linked to a scientific study published 66 years ago, which dealt with the future of population growth on the planet Earth.
The circulating novel is based on a study published by three researchers in the American scientific magazine Science on November 4, 1960, under the provocative title: (Doomsday: Friday, November 13).
In their study, the researchers concluded that the continuation of global population growth according to the pattern they observed over the course of about two thousand years will lead, according to their mathematical model, to the number of humans theoretically reaching infinity in November 2026.
But were researchers really talking about humanity's extinction? Does this date bear any scientific indication of the occurrence of a cosmic catastrophe or an event that would end life on Earth?
Where did the story start?
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The roots of the study go back to the Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster, who prepared the research in cooperation with researchers Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amyot, all of whom worked in the Department of Electrical Engineering at the University of Illinois in the United States.
The researchers relied on a set of historical estimates of the world's population, which included 24 estimates extending from the beginning of the Common Era until 1958, and through them they tried to understand the way in which the human population has developed throughout history.
The researchers did not content themselves with assuming that the population is increasing at a constant rate, but rather proposed a mathematical model based on the idea of accelerated growth, or what is known as hyper-exponential growth, whereby the population not only increases, but the pace of increase itself accelerates over time.
The model assumed that the ability of humans to communicate, cooperate, and form communities and alliances allows them to develop means that help them overcome some environmental constraints, thus increasing their ability to survive and reproduce.
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After applying the equation to historical data, the researchers concluded that the mathematical model reaches the Singularity point in the year 2026.87, that is, approximately mid-November.
Thus, the date November 13, 2026 appeared in the title of the study, as the date when the model expects the population to become infinite, if growth continues according to the same assumptions.
The title of the study may seem at first glance to be an announcement of a prophecy about the end of the world, but the intent was completely different.
The researchers did not talk about an asteroid colliding with the Earth, the sun exploding, or devastating earthquakes and volcanoes, nor did they set a date for humanity’s extinction due to a natural disaster.
Rather, they used the concept of “Doomsday” to describe the hypothetical mathematical point at which population growth, according to their equation, reaches an infinite value, which is impossible to verify in the physical world.
In other words, infinity here is not an actual number of people who will live on Earth, but rather a mathematical result that appears when we extend a certain model into the future while assuming that its conditions continue unchanged.
Reading the original study reveals that the researchers were aware that this model could not be applied without taking into account the influence of the environment, resources, and circumstances surrounding the population, which are factors that can affect birth and death rates and change the course of growth.
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What is the relevance of Michel Tekla's article published in 1964?
Among the press materials that returned to circulation in this context is a clipping from the Egyptian newspaper (Watani) dating back to November 29, 1964, bearing the signature of writer Michel Takla, and a headline talking about the end of the world on November 13, 2026.
Egyptian media republished an image of the old clipping, which contributed to re-igniting interest in the story more than six decades after its publication.
But it is important to distinguish between a newspaper article and an original scientific study. The study dated November 13, 2026 was issued in 1960 by von Foerster and his colleagues, and is not a study prepared by Michel Tekla.
Various accounts have also appeared in recent press coverage regarding the content of Takla’s article, as some coverage linked it to the study of population growth, while other coverage attributed to it hypotheses about solar activity, climate change, and natural disasters.
Therefore, it is not correct to combine these hypotheses into a single scientific theory, or to consider them all as results issued by von Foerster’s study, without referring to the full text of the original article and comparing it to the scientific source.
"solar activity"
Among the stories that appeared in some of the coverage related to Michel Tekla's article was talk about exceptional solar activity on November 13, 2026, and the resulting magnetic disturbances and natural disasters.
However, real solar storms should not be confused with claims that a specific solar catastrophe will occur on a specific day.
Solar activity is a well-known natural phenomenon, during which the Sun goes through cycles in which its level of activity changes, and sometimes coronal mass emissions and solar flares occur that may affect the Earth's magnetic field.
Strong solar storms can cause disruptions to communications, satellites and navigation systems, and can affect electricity grids.
But the existence of these risks does not mean that the Sun will destroy the Earth on a specific date.
The population study published in Science magazine in 1960 does not provide any evidence of a relationship between the date of November 13, 2026 and the activity of the sun or the occurrence of geological and climatic disasters.
“No indications of an exceptional event on November 13.”
In an attempt to verify the allegations circulating about the existence of an astronomical danger threatening the Earth on November 13, 2026, astronomer Imad Mujahid said that solar activity is peaking during the current year, but this phenomenon has been known to scientists for decades, and does not represent a sudden event or unexpected development.
Mujahid explained to the BBC that solar activity goes through natural cycles, and that solar storms are phenomena that have occurred since the beginning of the universe, but scientific and technological development has allowed scientists to monitor, follow up, and predict them to a better degree than before.
He added that there is no known or expected astronomical event on November 13 that would raise concern or fear about the safety of the Earth.
Regarding the possibility of determining a date for the end of the world using mathematical equations or astronomical models, Mujahid ruled out this, stressing that there are no indicators in astronomy or cosmic sciences that indicate the approaching end of the world.
He pointed out that the allegations circulating regarding this date are not based on statements or warnings issued by astronomy specialists, but rather are transmitted by entities and people through various platforms, without a scientific basis to support them.
These clarifications come in the context of distinguishing between known natural phenomena, such as solar activity cycles and solar storms, and explanations that link them to unproven predictions about the end of the world.
Why were the 1960 accounts not met?
The main problem in projecting the old equation onto the reality of 2026 lies in assuming that the previous population growth pattern will continue without fundamental changes.
But over the past decades, the world has witnessed major demographic, social and economic transformations, which were directly reflected in rates of birth, mortality and population increase.
According to demographic data, the global population growth rate peaked in the 1960s, before it began to gradually decline.
This means that the actual path of population growth did not continue according to the mathematical curve that researchers used in 1960.
The world population, which was estimated at three billion people when the study was published, exceeded eight billion people, but it did not come anywhere close to reaching the infinity assumed by the equation.
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For its part, recent United Nations estimates present a completely different picture than the scenario assumed by the old study.
According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report issued by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the world population is expected to rise from about 8.2 billion people in 2024 to approximately 10.3 billion people in the mid-1980s, before it begins to gradually decline to reach about 10.2 billion people by the year 2100.
UN estimates indicate that the possibility of the world population reaching its peak during the current century has become greater, as a result of the faster-than-expected decline in fertility rates in a number of countries with high population density.
These expectations reflect an important shift in the nature of demographic challenges. In many countries, the issue is no longer linked only to the fear of population increase, but also includes low birth rates, high average lifespans, and an increasing number of elderly people.
Therefore, recent population trends do not support the hypothesis underlying the 1960 equation.
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