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"Obviously, we lost the election." Former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic admitted defeat after counting votes in the parliamentary election on October 25.
The "Student List" initiated by students won a majority in parliament, ending Vucic's 14-year rule. Although the candidates on the list had almost no political experience, a large number of Serbian people took to the streets to celebrate. One student wrote on social platforms: "Serbia is free."
From Prime Minister to President, the Progressive Party of Serbia (SNS) led by Vucic has gradually built Serbia into one of the toughest pro-China countries in Europe. Beijing has also described the relationship between the two countries as "iron friendship." This election means a huge change in Serbia's political landscape. The outside world is paying attention to where China-Serbia relations will go after the pro-China leaders step down.
Some analysts pointed out to BBC Chinese that Beijing "may lose one of its most reliable political partners in Europe." However, the two countries have close investment ties and there will be no "fundamental shift" in foreign policy. How the relationship between Serbia and the EU develops will be the key to observing the direction of China-Serbia relations.
From train station tragedy to changes in Congress
This current parliamentary election was originally scheduled to be held in 2027.
But on November 1, 2024, a concrete canopy collapsed at the train station in the northern Serbian city of Novi Sad, killing 16 people and triggering large-scale student demonstrations that lasted for nearly two years. Protesters are demanding that the government review project safety and hold people accountable, stressing that the movement has "no leaders". Under pressure from the demonstrations, Vucic resigned as president, announced early elections in September, and turned to compete for the post of prime minister.
In May last year, protesting students organized "Student List – Students Are Winning" (Student List – Students Are Winning), with 250 amateurs led by cardiology professor Ilija Srdanovic to compete for all 250 seats in the National Assembly.
Preliminary vote counting results showed that the "Student List" received 53% of the votes and won 141 seats, gaining a majority in parliament; the Serbian Progressive Party led by Vucic received 39% of the votes and won 104 seats.
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According to the 11-point campaign platform of the "Student List", anti-corruption and policy transparency are its top priorities. Specific measures include establishing a dedicated police department, reviewing the assets of public officials, improving the transparency of public and national project procurement, and freeing public broadcasters from political control.
"Serbia faces a clear choice: either continue to decline amid corruption, or build a new state based on respect for the constitution and the law and serving every citizen," the platform reads.
According to the Serbian constitution, the new parliament must convene within 30 days and form a new government within 90 days. The leader of the majority party in the parliament will be nominated as the prime minister candidate.
However, there are many challenges facing the new camp: Most of the candidates are scholars, lawyers, doctors, athletes and farmers, with almost no experience in governing. The organization operates completely in a decentralized mode. The outside world still does not know how they will form a cabinet.
Vucic’s “iron friendship” with China
Under Vucic's leadership, Serbia has become China's most important partner in the Western Balkans. It was one of the first European countries to sign a cooperation document on the Belt and Road Initiative with China. The two countries established a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2016 and signed the first free trade agreement between China and Central and Eastern European countries in 2024.
In recent years, Chinese-funded enterprises have participated in many major infrastructure projects such as railways, highways, and energy in Serbia. The Novi Sad train station that triggered the wave of demonstrations is one of the stations along the Hungary-Serbia railway project under the framework of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Chinese customs statistics show that the bilateral trade volume between China and Serbia will reach US$6.48 billion in 2025, and China is Serbia’s second largest trading partner after Germany.
In addition to economy and trade, leaders of the two countries have frequent visits to each other. Vucic visited China in 2023; in 2024, Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Serbia, describing Serbia as a "true friend and good partner" and saying that the two countries' "iron friendship will last forever." During Vucic's second visit to China in May this year, Xi Jinping personally awarded him the "Medal of Friendship". Xinhua News Agency reported at the time that Vucic had "tears in his eyes", reflecting "the tenacity of the relationship between the two countries."
The overwhelming victory of the "Student List" is undoubtedly a heavy blow to Vucic's political camp. Whether this political change will shake the "iron friendship" between Serbia and China has become the focus of attention from the outside world.
Eva Seiwert, a senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Germany, pointed out to BBC Chinese that Vucic has always played a central role in developing Serbia-China relations, but the relationship between the two countries does not rely on him personally. She analyzed that Serbia has close economic ties with the EU and is relatively open to Beijing politically. Chinese companies have been able to set up production facilities and establish supply chains near the EU gateway, involving strategic areas such as mining and manufacturing.
Politically, Serbia has always been "one of China's most reliable partners" in Europe: Serbia supports Beijing on sensitive issues such as Taiwan, while China supports Serbia on the Kosovo issue. Severt believes that Vucic's defeat will definitely damage China's position in the Western Balkans, "because Beijing may lose one of its most reliable political partners in Europe."
Will Beijing change its strategy towards Serbia?
As of now, Beijing has not made a public statement on the election results.
Sevet analyzed that since Beijing has established considerable economic interests in Serbia, the investment "cannot be easily reversed" and there will be no "fundamental break" in relations between the two countries. However, the "Student List" has always emphasized in its political platform the fight against corruption, disclosure of all state contracts and open tendering, while focusing on protecting agricultural land and water resources. She pointed out that the most important change in the future may be that the new government adopts a "more cautious and critical attitude" towards Chinese projects. Actual development still depends on the new government's policy priorities and whether it can effectively implement its commitment to strengthen accountability.
Dr. Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, a member of the academic committee of the Martens Center in Brussels who currently lives in Bangkok, told BBC Chinese that since Beijing still hopes to maintain its influence in the region, it is likely to try to cooperate with the new leadership to find ways to cultivate mutual trust.
"This takes time, and Beijing is willing to accept this process and is willing to invest resources in this process." Feng Rusha said.
She also believes that the "student list" emphasizes the pursuit of justice and accountability, and the new government may re-examine existing cooperation agreements and strengthen scrutiny of Chinese investments in Serbia.
"So the key question is: Can Beijing continue to maintain its economic and diplomatic influence in Serbia in the face of a government that places greater emphasis on transparency?"
The EU factor becomes the biggest variable
Vonjusha pointed out that the development of relations between Serbia and the EU will also influence the direction of China-Serbia relations.
For years, Serbia has been seeking to join the EU while cooperating with Beijing: it became a candidate country in 2012 and launched accession negotiations in 2014, but progress has been slow due to rule of law, corruption issues and differences with the EU.
Feng Rusha pointed out that Vucic deliberately maintained a balance between the two lines in the past to consolidate his ruling position.
The new government's diplomatic stance is still unclear. Apart from stating that it will not participate in Western sanctions against Russia, it has not taken a position on major diplomatic issues.
However, a poll released by the Serbian non-governmental organization CRTA in September this year showed that 42% of the "student list" voter respondents believed that joining the EU is the best way to protect national interests, and only 9% chose to form an alliance with Russia and China.
Neighboring Hungary may serve as a reference. In April this year, the Tisza party led by Péter Magyar ended Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule in the parliamentary election. At that time, some analysts predicted that Hungary would gradually get rid of its excessive pro-China tendencies and "reintegrate into the European mainstream."
Vonjusha believes that "if joining the EU is still a feasible goal, Serbia may be more willing to reduce its dealings between different forces and move closer to the EU."
Dr. Richard Turcsanyi, project director of the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS), also analyzed to BBC Chinese that the winning political alliance did not focus much on international affairs, but he expected that the new government would improve relations with the EU and adhere more to EU values and principles in governance. "This may lead to a cooling of Serbia's relations with Russia and China."
After the election results came out, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen publicly congratulated her, saying: "We stand ready to support reforms in the rule of law, media freedom, anti-corruption and strong democratic systems." German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also publicly congratulated the "student list" on social platforms, affirming their demands for rule of law, anti-corruption and basic freedoms, and reiterated that Germany will actively support Serbia's accession to the EU.
Turcani, who had previously studied Serbian people's views on China, pointed out that people generally have a favorable impression of China, "and this favorable impression is not limited to voters who support Vucic." He said that no matter what the new government's tendency is, Serbian politics will still go through a period of turbulence "until a new political balance gradually takes shape."
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