The U.S. job market is unexpectedly strong, and hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are further dashed!

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) November 6Announce, non-farm employment increased by 165,000 in October, much higher than market expectations of about 59,000 to 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Strong employment data and high inflationary pressures have pushed market bets on the Fed to raise interest rates by 1% in December to nearly 80%.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fluctuate around $75,000, facing short-term pressure from rising U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields.

Non-farm payrolls added 165,000 people, nearly three times the estimate, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%

The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, significantly exceeding economists' original estimates of about 60,000, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among them, the professional and business services industry added about 70,000 jobs, the healthcare industry added about 42,000 jobs, and the manufacturing industry also added 19,000 jobs, indicating that corporate recruitment demand is still resilient.

More importantly, the employment data for the first two months were also revised upward simultaneously. The number of new jobs in August was revised up to 186,000 from the original 133,000, and in September it was revised up from 29,000 to 60,000. The total number of new jobs in the two months was revised up to 84,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, and average hourly wages increased by 0.4% monthly and 3.1% annually, reflecting that the labor market did not cool down as quickly as some investors expected.

The chance of the Fed raising interest rates in December is close to 80%, and the U.S. dollar index surges 0.77%

After the release of strong employment data, the market quickly reassessed the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. According to Reuters, interest rate futures show that the market estimates that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 1% in December has risen to nearly 80% from about 67% the previous day.

The current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75% to 4.00%. If interest rates are raised by 1% in December, interest rates will rise to 4.00% to 4.25%.

The strong jobs data also pushed the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher. According to foreign exchange market reports, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose about 0.77% to 102.26 on November 6, recording its largest single-day gain in months.

Rising U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields in tandem usually increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets and may put pressure on risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

BTC once fell below $75,000, and still fluctuated at a low level after the non-farm payrolls announcement

As expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve increase, Bitcoin has yet to shake off its recent weak trend.

According to historical market conditions on Investing.com, BTC hit an intraday low of approximately $74,955 on November 6, and then gradually recovered. As of the latest inquiry at noon on November 7, BTC was trading at approximately US$75,804, still oscillating above US$75,000, and far from the US$81,000 level it had broken through on November 4.

BTC did not start to fall simply because of the release of non-agricultural data. previouslyU.S. AI technology stocks plunge, cryptocurrency market leverage liquidation, andSpot Bitcoin ETFs continue to divest, has caused market risk sentiment to weaken significantly. Expectations of interest rate increases brought about by the non-farm payrolls report have put Bitcoin under additional overall economic pressure.

For cryptocurrency investors, the most important message from this non-farm payrolls report is that the U.S. economy and job market are still strong enough to support the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy.

But strong employment does not mean the Fed will inevitably raise interest rates. Policymakers must still assess inflation, energy prices and subsequent employment data. The next U.S. non-farm payrolls report is scheduled to be released on December 4, ahead of the Fed's December 8-9 interest rate meeting, so it could still change market bets on raising interest rates.

In the short term, BTC's level of approximately $75,000 is a psychological level that has been repeatedly tested by the market recently. If the US dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, and ETF capital flows do not improve, the crypto market may continue to be under pressure. The unexpectedly strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data turned the market from expecting an interest rate cut to betting on an interest rate increase; whether Bitcoin can hold $75,000 will also depend on whether global risk sentiment and institutional funds stabilize.

〈U.S. nonfarm payrolls surge by 165,000! The probability of the Fed raising interest rates is nearly 80%, and Bitcoin remains at 75,000〉This article was first published inBlock Guest》.