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The world is headed for its hottest year on record as the planet suffers from warming caused by climate change and El Niño, scientists have told the BBC.
The warning comes ahead of a meeting of world leaders and negotiators who gathered in Antalya, Turkey on Monday to open COP31, the next UN climate summit.
The independent American research group Berkeley Earth, which prepared the forecast, said that although there are still two months left until the end of the year, it is 95% confident that 2026 will beat the previous record set in 2024.
In recent months, COP countries have felt the effects of rising heat acutely, with massive wildfires raging across Europe and a sudden glacier collapse in Nepal, killing more than a thousand people.
“We are in the midst of a string of record warm years,” said Dr. Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth. “This is exactly what we expect as global warming progresses.”
On Friday, the EU climate service Copernicus confirmed that October was the hottest on record.
However, Rohde cautioned that this is just the beginning. “There could be much bigger and more dramatic changes in the future,” he said.
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The main reason for the rise in global temperatures is the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, mainly caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its own report on Monday, and while it is more cautious than the Berkeley Earth report, it forecasts that 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record.
The report notes that the situation will not improve in 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño event will continue into next year, causing temperatures to rise further.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said this "gives new meaning to the expression 'off the scale'."
"Global warming comes at a cost"
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The findings highlight the challenge facing negotiators gathered in Antalya for COP31.
Previous meetings have focused on reducing emissions—tackling the cause of climate change. But more countries now face pressure to do so while adapting to new extreme weather events as the planet warms.
“None of the sessions of the Conference of the Parties is a panacea. No conference can bridge the gap between science and reality,” said UN climate chief Simon Still, addressing delegates on the first day of the conference.
“The urgency of the current situation should push us forward. Global warming is already costing the Earth dearly,” he added.
In October, UK Defense Secretary Wes Streeting warned the public and businesses to consider how they cope with increased natural disasters, including stockpiling food.
Streeting recalled this summer's bushfires and record heat, which the British Meteorological Service says is 130 times more likely due to climate change, as well as the increased risk of flooding this winter as a result of El Niño.
Stephen Belcher, chief scientist at the British Meteorological Service, told the BBC: "We are adapted to a 20th century climate that we no longer live in, so this will change every aspect of our lives."
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Additional greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere trap additional heat, and about 90% of this heat is absorbed by the oceans.
This is where El Niño comes into play, Saulo said: “It doesn't add new thermal energy to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is now the hottest temperature ever recorded. There’s just more heat that can be released now.”
This natural climate trend is causing global temperatures to rise even further.
The world is currently on track to warm 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century - which is virtually guaranteed to exceed the 1.5°C target set under the Paris Agreement to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.
What outcomes can COP31 achieve?
The countries will negotiate for two weeks, with leaders attending the conference this week.
Previous climate summits have led to new goals for countries to reduce fossil fuel use, increase funding for developing countries and protect forests.
While emissions continue to rise, countries have also made significant progress in increasing renewable energy capacity. According to the International Energy Agency, growth in this area over the next six years will be 57% higher than in the previous period.
Still also noted that increased use of renewable energy is both a climate and economic solution amid recent energy turmoil: “Last year, renewable energy saved nearly half a trillion dollars worldwide.”
The Turkish government wants discussions this year to focus on a new electrification goal - switching energy systems from fossil fuels to electricity - and reducing waste.
However, this debate is likely to cause a rift between countries.
Early drafts of the EU position seen by the BBC make it clear that the EU will only agree to the electrification target if it prevents countries from achieving it using gas.
“It is important that progress in electrification is based on clean energy sources,” said a memorandum sent to EU members.
However, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have previously advocated the temporary use of gas as a "cleaner" alternative to coal among fossil fuels.
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Celeste Saulo of the WMO said she could not explain why countries had not previously reached agreement on certain issues, but added: "I see the consequences of this lack of consensus as increasingly extreme events."
According to the BBC, the UK government does not want to set any new goals for COP31 and believes that the focus should be on implementing existing agreements.
However, reports emerged on Monday that environmental groups say the UK government's plans to expand the use of electric vehicles will be scaled back, jeopardizing the country's long-term climate goals.
Additionally, in September, members of the British Parliament's International Development Committee criticized the government for cutting its international aid budget, meaning it could not meet previous commitments to finance climate action.
At previous COP conferences, richer countries agreed to triple the amount of money allocated to developing countries to help them adapt to climate change, to at least $85 billion by 2035.
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The latest figures for 2024 show countries have reached about a third of that figure, but the UN said this week that the damage currently being seen from climate change is "substantial" and much more funding may be needed.
However, many countries have redirected aid budgets to defense spending and short-term financial assistance to households as gas and oil prices soared following the war between Iran and the United States.
Governments are also expected to use the forum to discuss global AI policies, including the growing demand for energy and water resources for the data centers that support the technology.
With assistance from Miho Tanaka
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