Researchers expect global emissions from fossil fuels to decline by 0.4% in 2026, to reach 38.2 billion tons, the first annual decline since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, thanks to the expansion of renewable energy and the oil price shock caused by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This was stated in the “Global Carbon Budget” report published in conjunction with the United Nations Climate Conference (COP31) in Antalya, warning that this partial reduction does not represent a sustainable solution to the climate.
Published on: 10/11/2026 - 07:08 Last updated: 10/11/2026 - 07:10
Researchers believe that a slight decline in global emissions resulting from fossil fuels may occur during the year 2026. This decline is due to the expansion of renewable energy and to the oil price shock sparked by the war in Iran.
The “Global Carbon Budget” report stated that emissions resulting from the burning of oil, gas and coal, the main causes of climate change, have increased by an average of 0.9 percent annually over the past decade, and reached a record level in 2025, but they are likely to decrease by 0.4 percent in 2026, according to the research issued to coincide with the meeting of countries at the United Nations Climate Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Turkey.
This will be the first annual decline since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic paralyzed the global economy and the movement of trade and transportation.
Read also: The launch of the COP 31 talks in Türkiye amid energy security challenges and a decline in climate cooperation
Oil and gas decline and coal rise
The researchers found that the war that the United States started in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to reducing emissions, as it led to a decline in oil consumption in light of the sharp rise in crude prices. The deployment of solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles also contributed to the decline. The report concluded that two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand is met by solar, wind and electric vehicles.
It is estimated that oil-related emissions fell 1.9 percent last year, but that was “most likely a short-term response to the energy shock resulting from the war with Iran,” according to the researchers. Gas emissions are expected to decrease by 0.3 percent, while emissions resulting from the use of coal will increase by 0.6 percent.
“It does not represent a sustainable solution.”
“The decline in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels is encouraging, but this decline, which is partly due to geopolitical shocks, does not represent a sustainable climate solution,” said Pierre Friedlingsteen, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter in Britain. “The long-term solution remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies,” explained Friedlingstein, who led the study published in the journal Earth System Science Data.
For her part, Corinne Le Quéré, professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia, pointed out that emissions rose again when economies recovered after shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis. She said a recovery was likely "when oil-related tensions subside."
Total numbers
Overall, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to reach 38.2 billion tons in 2026. Taking into account emissions resulting from land use transformation, such as deforestation, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise to 43.3 billion tons, compared to 42.8 billion tons last year.
France 24/AFP
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