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Esme Stallard Senior Climate and Science Reporter Justin Rowlatt Climate Editor
Scientists told BBC News that 2026 is on track to be the hottest year on record due to global warming caused by climate change and the El Niño phenomenon. This year's 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP31) is being held in Turkey from the 9th.
With only two months left in this year, Berkeley Earth, an independent research organization in the United States, said there is a 95% chance that temperatures in 2026 will exceed the record high set in 2024.
Countries attending the COP have also been feeling the effects of rising temperatures more acutely in recent months. Large-scale wildfires broke out across Europe, and a glacier suddenly collapsed in Nepal, killing more than 1,000 people.
"We're in the midst of another record-breaking year of heat," said Dr. Robert Lord of Berkeley Earth. "These are expected events as global warming progresses, including the collapse of glaciers, record heatwaves and droughts."
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced on the 6th that this October was the hottest October on record.
But Dr. Lord warns that this is just the beginning. "There could be much larger and more dramatic changes in the future," he said.
A major cause of global warming is the rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, which is mainly caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.
The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also released its own report on the 6th. WMO took a more cautious view than Berkeley Earth, but predicted that 2026 would be the fourth warmest year on record.
According to the WMO report, the situation is not expected to improve in 2027, with an unusually strong El Niño phenomenon expected to continue into next year and temperatures to continue rising.
"This gives new meaning to the word 'outrageous'," said WMO Director-General Celeste Sauro.
These findings highlight the challenges facing delegates gathering in Turkey's port city of Antalya for COP31.
Previous meetings have focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to address the causes of climate change. However, at the same time, an increasing number of countries are now having to work on adapting to the new extreme weather conditions associated with global warming.
Simon Still, Secretary-General of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), is expected to address governments on the first morning of the conference, saying: "No COP is a panacea. No conference can bridge the gap between science and reality."
However, Still said, "This dire situation should be the driving force that drives us forward, because global warming is already taking a heavy toll on the planet."
In October, British Defense Minister Wes Streeting urged people to stock up on three days' worth of drinking water and canned food to prepare for emergencies such as extreme weather, natural disasters, and cyberattacks.
Mr Streeting also pointed out that El Niño, in addition to summer wildfires and record heat, has increased the risk of winter flooding. According to the Met Office, climate change has made high temperatures 130 times more likely.
Professor Stephen Belcher, the agency's chief scientist, told BBC program Panorama: "We are designed for a 20th century climate that is now behind us, so every aspect of our lives will change."
The increase in greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere is trapping more heat, about 90% of which is absorbed by the oceans.
"That's where the El Niño phenomenon comes into play," says WMO's Sauro. "El Niño does not add new heat to the Earth; it releases heat from the oceans, which are the hottest on record. In other words, the amount of heat that can be released is simply increasing."
This natural climate pattern is causing global temperatures to rise further.
The average global temperature is currently expected to rise by 2.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. It will almost certainly exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius agreed to in the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
What is the outlook for COP31?
COP31 will involve two weeks of negotiations. World leaders, including British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, will also be attending the conference this week.
Past climate change summits have set goals for countries to follow on things like cutting fossil fuels, increasing financial aid to developing countries and protecting forests.
Although emissions continue to rise, countries are also making significant progress in expanding renewable energy generation capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the growth rate over the next six years will increase by 57% compared to the previous six years.
Director-General Still is also expected to state that the expansion of renewable energy has been an effective solution to the recent energy crisis in terms of both climate change and economic measures. "Global renewable energy contributed approximately $500 billion in savings last year," Still said.
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The Turkish government says it wants this year's discussions to focus on new goals on electrification: transitioning the energy system from fossil fuels to electricity and reducing waste.
However, this debate is likely to divide countries.
An early draft of the EU's position, obtained by the BBC, has made it clear that the EU will not support electrification targets unless they allow gas to be used to achieve them.
“It is important that progress in electrification is underpinned by clean energy sources,” the EU said in a memorandum to member states.
But countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have long promoted the interim use of gas as a "cleaner" fossil fuel alternative to coal.
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WMO's Sauro said he could not explain why countries have not been able to agree on specific issues so far, but said: "What I see is the effect of this lack of agreement in creating more extreme weather events."
According to information obtained by the BBC, the UK government is reluctant to set new targets at COP31, believing it should focus on achieving existing agreements.
However, in September, the UK government was criticized by MPs on the International Development Committee of the House of Commons for failing to meet existing climate funding commitments due to cuts to the aid budget.
Rich countries agreed at past COP meetings to increase funding to help developing countries adapt to climate change to at least $85 billion by 2035.
Latest data for 2024 shows countries have reached about 30% of the target, but the United Nations said this week that the damage caused by current climate change is "substantial" and more funding may be needed.
However, due to soaring gas and oil prices due to the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, many countries are redirecting their aid budgets to defense costs and short-term financial support for households.
Governments are also expected to use COP31 to discuss global AI policies, including the growing demand for energy and water resources from data centers that will support the spread of AI technology.
(Additional interview: Miho Tanaka)
(English article Scientists predict 2026 hottest year on record as climate talks begin)
