Geneva (AFP) - The World Meteorological Organization announced Thursday that the current "El Niño" phenomenon may be the strongest since records began four decades ago, and it is expected to intensify in the coming months, with a "close to 100 percent" probability that it will continue until February 2027.

Published on: 03/09/2026 - 10:51

The organization's Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, told reporters in Geneva that this phenomenon "may be more severe than anything we have observed since records began, to the point that it literally exceeds the range of indicators that we have been using for four decades."

The organization indicated that the El Niño phenomenon will peak at the end of this year, although its effects on the climate will continue until 2027.

She explained, "El Niño has stabilized steadily and will increase in intensity over the coming months, with major repercussions on rainfall patterns and temperatures, with the accompanying risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat waves."

El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon and is not caused by climate change.

But scientists expect that it will increase the temperature of the planet, which is already witnessing rapid warming due to the burning of fossil fuels, and will lead to the exacerbation of extreme weather events.

In turn, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said that the “El Niño phenomenon is amplifying before our eyes.”

Guterres said in a statement, "Science leaves no room for doubt. The planet is entering the unknown, and waters are getting hotter. Sea surface temperatures have reached unprecedented levels and continue to rise, and we find ourselves in a high-risk zone where extreme weather events become the new norm."

He added, "The race is now between increasing risks and our commitment to taking climate action and protecting people. We must win this race."

- A devastating blow to economies -

El Niño typically peaks late in the year, but heat from the oceans slowly seeps into the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to rise the following year.

The year 2024, which follows the recent El Niño phenomenon, is considered the hottest year on record.

“This extraordinary El Niño phenomenon... has the potential to deal a devastating blow to societies and economies around the world,” said World Meteorological Organization President Celeste Saulo.

She added, "We are already witnessing disturbances and destruction caused by drought and floods, and we expect these effects to worsen as the El Niño phenomenon intensifies."

Saulo alerted disaster management authorities and climate-affected sectors, such as agriculture, health, energy and water, to the need to prepare for this.

The El Niño phenomenon causes surface water temperatures to rise in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean, leading to fundamental changes in wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on a global scale.

The phenomenon occurs once every two to seven years, and lasts between nine to 12 months.

Climatic phenomena alternate between El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, and between them there are periods of neutral conditions.

The World Meteorological Organization said, "Due to exceptionally high ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the El Niño phenomenon is expected to intensify further in the coming months to reach a very strong level."

The United Nations agency classifies the El Niño phenomenon into four levels: weak, medium, strong and very strong, which means that it is likely to reach the third highest level out of four.

The World Meteorological Organization indicated a "close to 100 percent" probability that the phenomenon would continue until February 2027.

- Pacific Ocean temperature rising -

El Niño can reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometers away in the tropical Pacific.

Each phenomenon is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns. These include drought in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disruption of monsoon rains in India, and changing rainfall patterns across the tropics.

The World Meteorological Organization's forecasts for the period from September to November indicate an increase in the possibility of recording temperatures above normal "in almost all land areas" in conjunction with rainfall patterns that show "a clear and classic atmospheric response to the strong El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean," according to the United Nations weather and climate agency.

The index, which measures the deviation of sea surface temperatures from normal levels in the eastern center of the tropical Pacific region, has increased after recording an average of 1.5 degrees above normal between May and July.

Weekly values ​​between late July and mid-August ranged between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees above average, indicating continued strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon.

In some areas, water temperatures in the subsea layers exceeded the average by more than 8 degrees during July and early August.

© 2026 AFP

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