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Taiwan's "nine-in-one" local elections will be held at the end of November. In the battle for Taipei's capital, candidate Shen Boyang of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has suddenly emerged, and he and the current mayor Chiang Wanan, who represents the Kuomintang, are competing in the polls.
Since the mayor of Taipei has always been the "springboard" for Taiwan's president, this election has become a hot topic.
In addition, on the other side of the strait, Beijing also took action. Recently, the mainland Taiwan Affairs Office criticized Shen Boyang as a "Taiwan independence diehard" and named his family members.
Has the Chinese Communist Party interfered in Taiwan’s elections? How will this election affect the political energy of Lai Ching-tak and KMT Chairman Cheng Lai-wen? Can the small parties that have made a comeback and hope to make gains through the local council elections break out of the mainstream political parties in this alliance?
BBC Chinese interviewed experts on Taiwan issues and compiled five key points worth paying attention to in this election.
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Point 1: "Ocean current" tsunami, or a flash in the pan?
Shen Boyang, who is also a legislator and an associate professor at Taipei University, has gone from being unfavorable in the election to a significant improvement, causing waves in Taiwan's political arena. Public opinion calls it an "ocean current" phenomenon.
In fact, according to a survey released by Taiwan's TVBS Poll Center in early October, Chiang Wanan's support was 49% and Shen Boyang's was 41%. The gap between the two parties has narrowed significantly from about 28 percentage points in late May this year to 8 percentage points. The election in Taipei has become increasingly fierce. In the Taipei mayoral election poll released by the newly established Taipei Cross-Strait Research Association on October 20, Shen Boyang led Chiang Wanan with 50.3% support and 33.3%.
Why are the two polls so different?
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Tsao Hing-cheng, the sponsor of the Trustees Association, is a well-known supporter of the green camp, and together with Shen Boyang, he is listed as a "Taiwan independence die-hard" by China. TVBS, formerly known as Wireless Satellite TV Station, was a subsidiary of Hong Kong Wireless Television (TVB). Public opinion in Taiwan tends to regard it as a "pro-blue" media.
In this regard, Huang Weihan, a senior media person in Taiwan, said that "opinion polls are temporary and local. You can pay attention to them, but you don't need to care." However, he also said that in the results of these Taipei public polls, a "trend" has emerged for Shen Boyang to rise and Jiang Wanan to decline.
The outside world began to focus on: Can this momentum truly "break the circle", spill over to other counties and cities, and transform into substantive voting?
In the face of the "ocean current" momentum, Chiang Wanan's camp responded with municipal issues.
He called on his supporters to "stand up bravely" on a Taiwanese political commentary program and affirmed his achievements in the four years he has been in charge of the Taipei City Government. He also emphasized several times that Taipei City has ranked first among the six cities in the "Happy City" competition for two consecutive years, and the team has adopted a "tremendous" attitude along the way.
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Professor Liu Jiawei from the Department of Public Administration and Policy at Taipei University in Taiwan analyzed to BBC Chinese that Shen Boyang "Whether this improvement in election sentiment can be converted into support requires further observation."
Liu Jiawei explained that the reason is that voters who are politically indifferent may not know Shen Boyang, but voters who are passionate about politics are quite familiar with related events: "They remember Shen Boyang's active participation in the past "general recall", his image of "physical conflict" when asking questions about politics in the Legislative Yuan, and his clear stance on "Taiwan independence."
However, Ms. Huang, who is registered in Da'an District and works in a foreign accounting firm, told BBC Chinese that she would vote for Shen Boyang this time because "Mr. Shen's policy discussion and supporting measures are clear and convincing. As a challenger, he comes prepared."
Ms. Huang said that she has lost confidence in the current city government team on issues such as child abuse and food safety.
On the contrary, a Taiwanese overseas Chinese living in New York was interviewed by Taiwanese self-media and said that he would definitely return to Taiwan to vote for Chiang Wanan. He believed that Chiang Wanan had great ideas for the development of Taipei City. Another woman who immigrated to the United States and was interviewed in Flushing also emphasized that the Taipei City Government has high administrative efficiency under the leadership of Chiang Wanan and deserves her trust.
Point 2: Will Beijing intervene in Taiwan’s local elections?
Analysts who study cognitive warfare and foreign forces point out that AI deep fakes, false information, targeted attacks on specific candidates on social media, fake polls, economic inducements, etc. are common means used by foreign forces to intervene in other countries or opponents.
The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of Mainland China has also recently taken action.
According to the official Xinhua News Agency, Chen Binhua, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, directly named Shen Boyang's father in response to a question on October 14, saying that he was evading sanctions and continued to do business with related enterprises in mainland China in the name of another company, "seeking economic benefits from it."
Chen Binhua said: "Shen Boyang, while clamoring for 'anti-China' and obstructing cross-strait exchanges and cooperation, worked with his relatives to find ways to make money from the mainland. His ugly behavior is disgusting."
In this regard, Professor Elizabeth Larus, an adjunct senior researcher at the US think tank Pacific Forum, pointed out to BBC Chinese that the pro-DPP scholars and activists she interviewed, as well as some officials from the Taipei Ministry of National Defense, said that the CCP is using "cognitive operations" to influence Taiwanese voters.
Lan Ruosi said her research subjects told her that the Chinese Communist Party has established more than 100 fake news websites in an attempt to influence the election.
"These websites deliberately sow doubts in the minds of voters, questioning whether the United States will support or defend Taiwan, or manipulate voters' fears that 'resistance to China is futile,' thereby prompting voters to reject the DPP candidates," she said.
Dr. George Soroka, a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University in the United States, told BBC Chinese in the past that the propaganda offensives deployed by so-called "non-democratic" countries have always been much more intense.
He observed that Beijing has adopted many similar tactics as Moscow, especially in recent years, using selective interpretations of past historical events to increase the legitimacy of its claims in areas such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The Taiwan Fact Checking Center (TFC) also published an investigation report in 2025 focusing on disinformation related to Taiwan’s defense and security anxiety.
The report stated that many of the appropriated scenes from Taiwanese dramas or advertisements can be traced back to Chinese platforms such as Weibo and Douyin, and then spread to Facebook, TikTok, etc. Event-driven narratives (such as the resumption of military trials) are often amplified by local Taiwanese politicians or "small" Internet celebrities.
In this regard, Ye Yaoyuan, a professor at the University of St. Thomas in the United States, analyzed on his personal website that although the CCP’s cognitive warfare in the Taiwan election may not directly change voters’ voting stance, it will have the effect of deepening social confrontation and polarization in Taiwan.
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Highlight 3: The key showdown between the largest “vote base” and the “second generation of politicians” is facing a test
With a population of 4 million and more than 3 million voters, New Taipei City has the highest numbers in Taiwan.
The New Taipei City mayoral election pits Su Qiaohui, the current legislator of the Democratic Progressive Party, against Li Sichuan of the Kuomintang, who has served as deputy mayor of New Taipei City and Kaohsiung City.
Many comments said that New Taipei City has a high proportion of median voters and is leading in polls. It is regarded as an indicator battlefield that determines the outcome of the national territory.
Comprehensive data from all parties shows that Li Sichuan has high cohesion among the blue camp base and specific ethnic groups, while Su Qiaohui is favored among young voters, and the election situation between the two parties is still in a tug-of-war.
Su Qiaohui is the daughter of former Executive Dean and former Taipei County Mayor Su Zhenchang. The father of KMT Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Ke Zhien is former Pingtung County Mayor Ke Wenfu. The father of DPP Hsinchu County Mayor candidate Zheng Chaofang is former KMT Hsinchu County Mayor Zheng Yongjin.
Therefore, some analysts say that the return of these middle-level politicians to the local areas to fight for the chief executive position reflects the continuation and renewal of Taiwan's political families.
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Some "second-generation politicians" choose to step outside the family's party line. For example, Zheng Chaofang emphasized that he established his "Taiwanese" stance as early as his student days, and Su Qiaohui called herself the "second generation of democracy." Others, like the Yan family in Taichung and the Zhang family in Yunlin, have always been the mainstay of the KMT's local factions.
Experts interviewed said that this highlights the coexistence of resources and image advantages and baggage of the "second generation of politicians" in Taiwan's local politics.
For example, the parents of several popular second-generation political candidates in this election have not made high-profile statements. Some candidate aides also declined to talk to BBC Chinese about the issue of the second generation of politicians. Behind the scenes, they wanted to highlight that they "rely on themselves, not on their parents."
Zhang Junhao from the Department of Political Science at Tunghai University in Taiwan emphasized to BBC Chinese that Taiwan has experienced democratization for a period of time, so it is not certain whether the second generation of politicians is an asset or a burden. The second generation in politics still needs to be judged by their own performance, including whether their local management is solid enough, and by their performance in parliament or the Legislative Yuan.
In other words, the second generation of politicians cannot "seamlessly" win votes from the inheritance of the family's elders.
Taking Su Qiaohui as an example, Zhang Junhao analyzed that Ms. Su's ability to compete with the politically powerful Li Sichuan this time was mainly due to her long-term local management, youthful image and overflowing influence.
But Zhang Junhao also said that Su Zhenchang's qualifications as an "old county magistrate" and long-term good relationship with the local area also gave his daughter an advantage.
Perhaps, the stalemate in the New Taipei City election is a concrete manifestation of this generational shift in the largest voting base.
Point 4: Can a small Taiwanese party with “no big platform” break through in local elections?
There are approximately 600,000 first-time investors in Taiwan. Many experts have said that since previous elections, the outcome of tight constituencies has often depended on the median voter and turnout.
Therefore, some experts pointed out that most candidates in this local election focused on people's livelihood issues such as housing, transportation, economy, and local governance, rather than directly focusing on "resisting China and protecting Taiwan."
How small parties can impress voters and seek breakthroughs on people's livelihood issues has also become a focus.
For example, the Power of the Times, the Taiwan Green Party, the Obasan Alliance for Small People's Political Participation, and the Taiwan Foundation formed the "Taiwan Forward" front, promising that constituencies would not overlap and pooling resources in an attempt to establish a "native third force" at the grassroots parliamentary level.
Chen Chiying, who has served as a non-party mayor in Wenshan District, Taipei City for eight years, accepted the nomination of the Power of the Times to run for the Taipei City Council election. He emphasized that only people from the grassroots level know what people who are busy with rent, prices, medical care, transportation and work are thinking every day.
In Kaohsiung, Lin Yukai, a former congressman who resigned from the Power of the Times and joined the People's Party, launched the local Pedestrian Right of Way Promotion Association to focus on right-of-way traffic issues. This time he joined the election campaign again, hoping to return to parliament with people's livelihood issues.
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Analyzing the dilemma of small parties, Professor Wang Yeli from the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University once pointed out that there has long been room for third forces to exist in Taiwanese society, but they often replace each other. Recently, there has even been a trend of increasing "elimination rates" and shortening life cycles.
Observing the development of small parties in Taiwan for a long time, Professor Wang found that most small parties are split between blue and green, so it is difficult for them to be completely independent ideologically, or their limited resources lead to infighting within the party and they gradually lose political energy.
In addition, Taiwan’s electoral system is not conducive to small parties. Taking Taiwan's non-constituent legislators as an example, if a political party's vote rate is less than 5%, the party cannot obtain any non-constituent legislator seats. Only a party's vote rate exceeding 3% can receive political party subsidies.
Professor Zhang Junhao told BBC Chinese that even the local political work of county and city councilors requires stable operations to gain local support.
Because the small party lacks resource subsidies and ultimately lacks money and people to run the local area, Professor Zhang is not optimistic that the small party will achieve satisfactory results in the election this time.
The only exception is Miao Boya of the Taiwan Social Democratic Party. Since being elected as a Taipei City Councilor in 2018, he has been re-elected and has won widespread support from the local middle class and student voters.
Point 5: Lai Ching-tak and Cheng Lai-man face each other for the first time, affecting the layout of the 2028 general election
This election is regarded as the "mid-term test" of President Lai Qingde's governance and an important test for KMT Chairman Cheng Lai-wen, who has been in office for one year.
Two Taiwanese researchers from the American magazine "The Diplomat" wrote in a letter that local elections are essentially local issues and should not be directly interpreted as a referendum on Lai or national politics.
However, the two authors believe that both Lai Qingde and Cheng Laiwen are highly polarizing figures, and their images are often deliberately avoided in local elections. If the KMT performs poorly, Cheng Laiwen, a potential candidate, will face pressure within the party, and the 2028 presidential primaries will be more complicated.
Lan Ruosi emphasized that "all politics are local politics" and agreed that the nine-in-one election is related to Taiwan's domestic politics and local realities to a far greater extent than cross-strait relations.
Lan Ruosi, who just completed a visit to Taiwan half a year ago, pointed out that former President Tsai Ing-wen vigorously emphasized the China factor in the final weeks of the 2022 local elections. As a result, all the candidates of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in the northern counties and mayors were defeated, which is clear evidence.
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