The mid-term elections in the United States, scheduled for November 3, could have a considerable impact on the rest of Donald Trump's presidential term.
On Tuesday, Americans will elect members of Congress, which is made up of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
These elections are held every two years, and when they occur midway through the president's four-year term, they are called "midterm elections."
One of the fundamental missions of Congress is to make and pass laws that apply to the entire country.
The outcome of the midterm elections will determine which political party – Trump's Republicans or the opposition Democrats – will control Congress and how well the president can carry out his plans over the next two years.
These results are also considered an indicator of how satisfied Americans are with Trump's management so far.
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1. Who will be elected?
The 435 members of the House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress, who serve a fixed two-year term, are re-elected. It is generally in the House that bills are presented and debated.
35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, the upper house, are also renewed. Senators serve a six-year term. Among their other functions, they approve or reject bills transmitted to them by the House of Representatives.
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That same day, voters across much of the United States will also elect their state-level representatives. The gubernatorial elections in California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan will be among the most closely watched.
2. What are the key themes?
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The U.S. economy is a concern for many voters as they face rising prices for fuel, food, housing and health care.
Inflation remains above the target set by the US Federal Reserve, in part because of the war the US and Israel launched against Iran in February.
Democrats say Trump's tariffs have also led to higher prices for Americans.
Immigration is another key topic. Republicans say Trump fulfilled a major campaign promise in 2024 by strengthening border security and implementing a tough, often controversial, policy against immigration.
In recent weeks, concerns about artificial intelligence have intensified. Senior politicians from both parties have agreed on the need to regulate it, countering Trump, who rejects the idea of legislation aimed at controlling the development of this technology.
3. What are the issues?
Congress is one of the three branches of government, alongside the presidency and the judiciary. Its control is essential to the development of laws.
The House of Representatives and the Senate are currently in the hands of the Republican Party. However, their majority is very narrow. They have 218 seats in the House, the minimum number necessary to control it, plus one independent who votes with them.
In the Senate, the Republicans have 53 seats. The upper house will only change hands if the Democrats manage to obtain 51, which would allow them to prevail over the casting vote of the vice president – currently a Republican – in the event that the two parties obtain 50 seats each.
If opposition Democrats regain control of at least one of the two chambers, they will have the power to introduce their own bills in plenary session.
4. Who could win?
In the past, voters have tended to “sanction” the president’s party and vote against him.
Recent polls show a low popularity rating for the president. He began his second term with a popularity rating of just over 50%, according to the polling site Silver Bulletin, but at the beginning of October, this stood at around 37%. At the same time, 61% of voters disapproved of his management.
But not all the seats at stake are contested. Some constitute a guaranteed victory for Republicans or Democrats.
CBS News, the BBC's American partner, lists ten elections to follow in the Senate, in states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, and 42 elections in the House of Representatives, in states such as Arizona and Ohio.
The vote is more unpredictable this year due to the dispute between the two parties over how electoral districts are drawn in the House of Representatives.
Republicans tried to gain an advantage by creating more favorable electoral maps in some states, and Democrats did the same.
Photo credit, Getty Images
5. What does this mean for Trump?
If Democrats win the House of Representatives or the Senate (or both), Trump will have difficulty getting legislation passed in Congress.
His national plans could therefore be thwarted, even if he has found ways to exercise power without the support of his party.
Democrats taking control of either chamber would also mean they could use House committees to investigate aspects of Trump's presidency. Accusations of corruption, the new White House ballroom and the tactics of police implementing repressive migration policy could come under scrutiny.
There is also a debate within the Democratic Party over whether to impeach Trump, which would involve presenting charges to Congress that would form the basis for impeachment proceedings, not criminal proceedings.
If the Republican Party maintains control of Congress, Trump will be able to continue his plans until the end of his term.
6. What does this mean for the 2028 elections?
The president's name is not on the Nov. 3 ballot, even though Trump urged Republicans to act as if they were voting for him, as a sign of support for his policies.
Whatever the results, commentators will likely use them to debate what voters think about the direction the country is heading under Trump's leadership.
Trump cannot run for president for a third time. Following the midterm elections, speculation can be expected to begin about who will succeed him as the Republican presidential nominee in 2028, and who might run against him on behalf of the Democratic Party.
*Additional information provided by Deirdre Finnerty.
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