Americans go to the polls this Tuesday to decide the future of the second half of Donald Trump's presidency.
This November 3, thousands of elections are held at different levels of government throughout the United States. But the main event for voters will be the election of members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, the two chambers that make up Congress.
Both are currently controlled by the Republicans, the president's party.
The success or failure of the last two years of Trump's administration could depend on this outcome.
Here's our visual guide to the tight battle for power: from approval ratings, to the key races and issues, to the huge amount of money being spent.
Elections at a difficult time for Trump
One of the reasons Democrats have a chance of taking back Congress is the president's low approval rating, which is a good indicator of how their party could perform.
Trump began his second term with an approval rating of just over 50%, according to the polling website Silver Bulletin, but quickly fell into the 40% range.
When Trump decided to launch attacks together with Israel against Iran at the end of February this year, the index was around 42%, but shortly after that moment it fell below 40%. It currently stands at around 37%.
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Eight years ago, Trump's approval rating was significantly higher at this point in his first term, reaching 43%.
Former President Joe Biden's at the same mid-government point was 40%.
In both cases, the sitting president lost control of the House of Representatives in elections like this Tuesday's, but maintained control of the Senate.
But Trump's low popularity ratings help explain why Democrats are hoping to win both chambers of Congress and why they are focusing their attention on states that Republicans have consistently won in recent years.
The battle for the House of Representatives
Historically, midterm elections see a high number of seats in the House of Representatives flip from one party to another, usually in protest against the White House.
The average number of seats lost by the ruling party is 27, according to data dating back to 1934.
In the 23 elections held since then, the president's party has only won three.
The current majority of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives, the Lower House, is minimal: they have 218 representatives, which is the exact number necessary to have the majority, plus one independent legislator who is usually inclined to vote in favor of Republican projects.
Members of the House of Representatives serve a two-year term, so its 435 seats are up for election in November.
But most districts are not considered close, because the party that controls them has such strong support that there is only one likely winner.
The Cook Political Report, which analyzes campaigns and elections, suggests that only 18 districts are in close competition, so they could be won by either party.
Of those 18 contested seats, 14 are currently held by Republicans and four by Democrats.
But even if Democrats didn't win any of them, they would still gain a majority in the House of Representatives if they pick up the 36 seats considered highly likely to swing their way, or trending toward Democrats.
The battle for the Senate
Republicans have a slim majority in the Senate.
They control 53 of the 100 seats, while the Democrats have 45, and they usually have the support of two independents.
Members of the Senate serve six-year terms, so approximately one-third are renewed every two years.
There are 35 seats up for grabs this Tuesday, but an analysis by the Cook Political Report suggests that only seven of them are close races that could swing either way.
Of those undecided seats, six are currently held by Republicans and one by Democrats.
To reach the 51 needed to be a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to win four of those seats, in addition to the four considered high probability or with a favorable Democratic trend.
But gaining control of the Upper House is not an easy task for the current minority.
They need to hold on to the Michigan seat, where polls suggest the race is closer than Democrats would like between Abdul el Sayed, a left-wing politician seen as an outsider, and his Republican rival, Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent.
Additionally, they would need to win seats in states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
But polls suggest they have a chance, including in Texas, where former high school teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a seat in that state since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the state's current attorney general and a close Trump ally.
What are the key themes?
In his campaign for the presidency in 2024, Trump promised to "end inflation and make America affordable again," but the cost of living crisis is proving to be the key issue for voters.
On February 24, in his State of the Union address, the president proudly declared that gasoline was "below $2.30 a gallon in most states."
But the war with Iran began four days later, disrupting Middle East energy supplies and causing gasoline to hit $4 on average across the United States.
The war became increasingly unpopular as its consequences spread around the world, ultimately directly affecting the pocketbooks of American consumers.
A survey conducted in August revealed that 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump's management of this situation.
Other issues voters consider important are health care and immigration.
Trump has recently touted his immigration policies as a huge success, citing significantly lower border crossing numbers than in recent years.
Many Democratic candidates are focusing on the high costs of health insurance in the United States and the impact of Trump's legislation on access to the health care system.
Can Trump overcome the discontent?
Most indications are that the Democrats will have a favorable midterm elections, but it would not be the first time that Trump and his party have topped the polls if they manage to win more seats than expected.
One of the few things that works in its favor is its enormous financial advantage.
As of mid-October, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups had about $320 million, while Democrats had just under $230 million for campaigns.
Additionally, Republicans were counting on more than $160 million more through Trump's MAGA Inc. group, the main fundraising and spending arm of the president's Make America Great Again political movement.
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Republicans are using that financial advantage to buy advertising.
According to research firm AdImpact, more than $1 billion worth of political ads targeting American voters were aired in September.
Republicans spent $200 million more than Democrats and outspended them in nearly every Senate race that appears to be close in the polls.
Trump hopes this avalanche of last-minute messages will help convince Republicans to get out and vote, thereby increasing turnout and limiting the damage against him and his party.
Whatever the outcome, attention will quickly turn to the upcoming 2028 presidential election.
Trump's unpopularity has dominated the midterm elections, but since, under the Constitution, the Republican cannot run for a third term, interest will focus on the Democrats' proposals, and not just what they oppose.
This article was originally written in English and we used an artificial intelligence tool to translate it. A BBC journalist reviewed the text before publication. Learn more about how we use AI.
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