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The opening of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China is just one week away.
As the leaders of major countries such as the United States, China, and Russia are expected to gather in one place, attention is focused on summit diplomacy surrounding trade conflicts and international security issues. For Korea, this is an opportunity to look at the direction of U.S.-China relations and lead to concrete results in improving relations with China.
What will be discussed at this meeting, which will be held on November 18th and 19th, and what should Korea pay attention to?
Who attends and what is discussed?
The APEC Summit, now in its 33rd year, will be held in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, southern China. This is the third time that China is hosting a summit, following Shanghai in 2001 and Beijing in 2014.
APEC is a consultative body that discusses trade, investment, and economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. 21 member economies, including Korea, the United States, China, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, participate. The official name of the summit is 'APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting'.
The meeting is scheduled to be attended by the host country's leader, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, and U.S. President Donald Trump. Russian President Vladimir Putin also announced his intention to attend, and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is also expected to attend.
This year's theme is 'Building a prosperous Asia-Pacific community together'. China, the chair country, placed openness, innovation, and cooperation as key tasks. Major topics of discussion include expansion of regional trade and investment, artificial intelligence (AI), and supply chain stability.
The host city, Shenzhen, is a city that symbolizes China's reform and opening. Since being designated as a special economic zone in 1980, it has grown from a manufacturing center to a high-tech industrial base, and is home to companies such as Huawei and electric vehicle company BYD.
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Prior to the summit, the APEC Business Meeting will be held on November 17th and 18th with businessmen from each country participating. Regional economic cooperation, AI, and sustainable development will be discussed.
What attracts as much attention as the official meeting are the bilateral and multilateral talks between leaders held on this occasion. In particular, attention is focused on whether the US-China summit, the Korea-China summit, and the first trilateral meeting between the leaders of the US, China, and Russia will be held.
Will Trump continue to pressure tariffs after losing the election?
The first person to pay attention to in this summit diplomacy is President Trump. As the Republican Party enters the international stage after losing its majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives in the midterm elections on November 3, attention is focused on how the election loss will affect his foreign policy.
The key is whether to maintain the 'America First' policy that puts tariffs first, or to show flexibility in negotiations for diplomatic results. Attention is being paid to whether there will be a change in the attitude of the leaders of each country toward President Trump and their response to the United States' trade demands.
In particular, the implementation status of existing trade agreements and conflict management measures are discussed as major agenda items between the leaders of the United States and China.
On November 9, ahead of the summit, China announced that it would postpone the application of additional tariffs of 24 percentage points on US imports for two more months. Accordingly, the corresponding additional tariff will not be imposed and a separate 10% additional tariff will be maintained. The measure took effect from November 10.
At this meeting, it is of interest whether the two leaders will continue these measures to alleviate trade conflicts and come up with additional agreements. Discussions can take place over the scope of cooperation and regulation not only in tariffs but also in technology fields such as AI and advanced semiconductors.
Korea needs to look at the impact the outcome of the negotiations between the U.S. and China will have on exports and supply chains. If the conflict between the two countries intensifies, the burden on Korean companies with production and sales bases in the United States and China may increase.
Even if there is an agreement to alleviate the conflict, it is difficult to say that the business conditions of Korean companies will immediately improve. There is a need to check how individual measures, such as semiconductor export controls and supply chain policies, vary.
Improved Korea-China relations, will there be concrete results?
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While examining the impact of the US-China negotiations, there are also challenges that Korea must resolve directly with China. When President Lee Jae-myung and President Xi Jinping meet, they are expected to review the status of cooperation following the Gyeongju APEC summit in November last year and the Beijing summit in January this year.
For Korea, the task is to translate the atmosphere of improved relations into changes that companies and citizens can feel.
A representative concern is the easing of restrictions on Korean pop culture activities in China, the so-called 'Korean ban'. Attention is being paid to whether there will be concrete progress in Korean singers' performances, broadcasting, and film distribution.
Regarding cultural exchange in January of this year, President Xi said, "Three pieces of ice do not melt all at once, and fruits fall off on their own when they ripen." The key this time is whether the scope and timing of expansion of exchanges will be presented in more detail.
In the economic field, the second phase of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations, AI, and supply chain cooperation can be discussed. At the summit in January, the two countries decided to expand cooperation to services, investment, core minerals, and the digital economy.
The North Korean issue is also a major concern. As North Korea-China exchanges continue recently, South Korea can request China's role in easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula and helping North Korea return to dialogue. It remains to be seen what position China will take on this.
Beyond the friendly remarks between the leaders, what follow-up measures are proposed in terms of cultural and economic exchanges and Korean Peninsula issues are expected to be the criteria for judging the outcome of the summit.
Will the first trilateral meeting between the US, China and Russia also address Korean Peninsula issues?
Discussions surrounding the Korean Peninsula issue may not be limited to the Korea-China talks. As the possibility of the first tripartite summit between President Trump, President Xi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is being discussed with this APEC, attention is focused on what security issues the three leaders will address.
President Trump said he expected to meet with President Xi and President Putin on November 8 and mentioned the issue of ending the war in Iran and denuclearization. However, the holding of the three-party summit and the specific agenda have not yet been confirmed.
Even if a meeting takes place, the difference in the three countries' positions on the main agenda is a variable.
The United States wants to discuss nuclear arms control, and Russia wants to address the issue of ending the war in Ukraine. It is reported that China prefers meetings where the agenda and expected outcomes are coordinated in advance.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it was maintaining communication with the relevant parties, but did not make a final announcement on holding the meeting. Accordingly, there are observations that even if the three leaders meet, they may end up only confirming their existing positions rather than reaching a specific agreement.
For South Korea, it is important whether North Korean nuclear weapons and Korean Peninsula security issues are included in the discussion. However, it has not been confirmed whether the denuclearization mentioned by President Trump includes the North Korean issue.
The possibility of contact between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is also being discussed. There is speculation that President Trump may pursue dialogue between North Korea and the United States for diplomatic results after his election defeat, but it is unclear whether it will lead to an actual meeting.
In Northeast Asian diplomacy, meetings between the leaders of China and Japan are also of interest. As relations between the two countries have deteriorated since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks about Taiwan in November last year, attention is also focused on whether the summit will be held and the method of contact between the two leaders during the meeting.
Will Jensen Huang attend? AI and semiconductor negotiations also pay attention
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In addition to security discussions between leaders, negotiations between the United States and China over cutting-edge technology are also noteworthy. In particular, attention is focused on whether Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, which leads the AI semiconductor market, will visit Shenzhen.
CEO Hwang was embroiled in controversy surrounding his relationship with a businessman suspected of being linked to Chinese intelligence agencies.
Nvidia's board of directors has launched an independent investigation, but its position is that there is currently no reason to believe that national security or company confidentiality has been compromised. China denies the espionage allegations.
President Trump expressed trust in CEO Hwang and left open the possibility of accompanying him on a trip to Asia. However, attendance is still unclear.
The chairs of the U.S. House of Representatives' Foreign Affairs Committee, Intelligence Committee, and China Special Committee requested CEO Hwang to hold a private briefing on November 18, the opening day of APEC. CEO Hwang can suggest a different date, so there is room for schedule adjustments.
For the Korean semiconductor industry, his attendance and the content of the AI and semiconductor negotiations between the U.S. and China are important. This is because the U.S.'s export controls on cutting-edge semiconductors to China and China's AI industry development policy also affect the demand and business environment of Korean companies.
The key point to watch at this meeting is whether the U.S. and China will expand the scope for technological cooperation or whether they will further emphasize restrictions for security reasons.
Follow-up discussions on AI cooperation led by Korea at last year's Gyeongju APEC will also continue. The government has introduced the 'AI Initiative' implementation plan and the plan to establish an Asia-Pacific AI Center during this year's APEC consultation process. It will be interesting to see how detailed the related discussions will be at this meeting.
President Lee Jae-myung is scheduled to attend the APEC summit held in Shenzhen, China on November 18-19. The specific departure schedule and bilateral meeting schedule have not yet been disclosed.
