The series of coordinated attacks by the Jnim jihadists and the Tuareg independence rebels of the FLA in Mali dealt a heavy blow to the military regime in place since 2020. The attack which cost the life of the powerful Minister of Defense Sadio Camara, pillar of the regime and architect of the rapprochement with Moscow, plunges Mali into uncertainty as much military as political.

Published on: 04/28/2026 - 7:06 p.m. Modified on: 04/28/2026 - 10:52 p.m.

Several thousand kilometers from Bamako, the Malian diaspora chanted his name on Monday April 27. In Montreuil, near Paris, a few hundred people paid tribute to the memory of General Sadio Camara, killed in a suicide attack on Saturday, showing their support for the authorities and denouncing the action of jihadist groups.

In Mali, the time has come for national mourning. On Saturday, in the heart of Kati – the country's main military academy and stronghold of the junta located near Bamako – a “trap vehicle driven by a suicide bomber” detonated the villa of the Minister of Defense. The attack was carried out as part of assaults coordinated by the Support Group for Islam and Muslims (Jnim) which allied itself with the Tuareg separatists of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA). It cost the life of Sadio Camara, Minister of Defense and number 2 in the Malian regime.

Also read: Jnim-FLA alliance, weakened junta, departure of Russian mercenaries: what is happening in Mali?

A hard blow for military power, which gave rise to questions at the top of the State. Remaining silent since the start of the offensives on Saturday morning, the head of the junta Assimi Goïta had not appeared publicly in the last 72 hours, fueling speculation about his ability to remain in power. Until the Malian presidency published on Tuesday on its X account photos taken during an interview with the Russian ambassador to Mali, then photos of Goïta visiting those injured in the attack and relatives of the late minister.

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A few hours later, Assimi Goïta gave a televised speech in which he affirmed that the situation was now “under control”. He called on the population not to give in to division, while recognizing a situation of “extreme seriousness”.

See alsoAssimi Goïta reappears 4 days after the jihadist attacks

A pillar of the regime swept away

Sadio Camara belonged to the first circle of colonels at the origin of the coup d'état of August 2020. Number 2 in the regime, he embodied the hard line of the junta. An officer trained partly in Russia, he was the architect of Mali's strategic shift towards Moscow. Under his leadership, Bamako turned its back on its Western partners, orchestrated the departure of French soldiers in 2022 and strengthened its cooperation with the fighters of the Russian Wagner group, replaced in 2025 by those of the Africa Corps.

Around the time the junta took power, Sadio Camara regularly announced the receipt of military equipment supplied by Russia: helicopters, weapons, ammunition, among others. In June 2025, he saw his Russian counterpart, Andreï Belooussov, several times after an official visit to the Kremlin by the head of the junta, Assimi Goïta.

According to observers, his disappearance leaves a void difficult for the junta to fill. “He was Russia's key interlocutor. His death will necessarily impact Mali's military and strategic coordination,” underlines Ulf Laessing, Sahel regional director for the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali, contacted by telephone.

An uncertain succession, weakened balances

In Bamako, one question dominates: who will succeed him? For the moment, no name is required. “It is difficult to know who could replace Sadio Camara. The government seems to be waiting for the storm to pass, hoping to consolidate its power and stay in place,” observes Ulf Laessing.

His death comes in a context of already palpable internal tensions. Classmates at the military school and long presented as allies, Sadio Camara and Assimi Goïta seemed, since last year, engaged in a struggle for influence at the top of the State. In recent months, officers reputed to be close to the Minister of Defense had been arrested. Among them were generals Abass Dembélé and Néma Sagara, two senior officers prosecuted for “attempted destabilization” and “endangering state security”.

Christophe Boisbouvier, journalist for RFI's Africa service, sees this as a turning point: "With the death of Sadio Camara, the regime loses one of its two pillars. And with General Modibo Koné seriously injured, the junta is stunned, weakened", he explains on France 24. According to him, jihadist groups now hope to exploit this fragility to cause "internal divisions" and, ultimately, a political recomposition.

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At the same time, the prolonged absence of Assimi Goïta has fueled speculation, with observers wondering about his fate and others about possible dissensions within the junta that could lead to his replacement. In his absence, it was Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga who tried to reassure, promising Monday, during a press conference, "necessary corrective measures for better security" and calling on the population not to give in to "panic".

For some analysts, this discretion of military leaders is not trivial. “After such a targeted attack, they fear being targeted themselves. They will probably stay on the sidelines for a few more days, while they see things more clearly, appoint a new Minister of Defense, and launch a new dynamic,” says Ulf Laessing.

Towards an international repositioning?

Beyond internal struggles, Mali's entire foreign policy could be subject to change. Russian military support did not allow the Malian army to contain jihadist and separatist threats. Thus, deprived of the main architect of the rapprochement with Moscow, the regime could be forced to review its alliances. A sign of concern in Moscow, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged on Tuesday that "the situation in the Republic of Mali remained difficult", assuring that "the enemies have not renounced their aggressive intentions".

The Ministry of Defense also confirmed the withdrawal of the Africa Corps from the strategic town of Kidal, recaptured last weekend by armed groups. A highly symbolic capture since this stronghold of the Tuareg rebellion was reconquered in 2023 by the Malian army supported by the Russians, after eleven years spent in the hands of supporters of the independence of Azawad. This victory, acquired shortly after the departure of the French and the United Nations force, had reinforced the prestige of Assimi Goïta.

In this context, the Malian presidency ensures that, during the meeting on Tuesday between Assimi Goïta and the Russian ambassador in Bamako, Igor Gromyko, the latter "reaffirmed his country's commitment alongside Mali in the fight against international terrorism".

Also read Street fighting and departure of Russian mercenaries: the story of the fall of Kidal in 48 hours

“The Malian government cannot depend on a single partner indefinitely,” said Ulf Laessing. “A new Minister of Defense could be tempted to diversify support, including by moving closer to the United States.”

According to information from Reuters, Washington recently initiated discussions with Bamako to relaunch intelligence cooperation. An option hitherto received lukewarmly by the Malian authorities, but which could regain relevance in the new context.

For Gilles Yabi, political scientist and founder of the WATHI think tank, the time is decisive: "We are still in a very vague and uncertain phase", declares the specialist on France 24. "Everything depends on what happens in the coming days: either an affirmation of the Malian military leadership which would manage to put itself back in place and reaffirm its authority, or we enter a scenario of collapse or military change at the head of Mali, with a possible departure of the Russians."

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