The Thais vote on Sunday to decide between the reformists and the conservatives in power, during early legislative elections called after a period of instability marked by the decline of the clan of patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra.

Published on: 02/08/2026 - 02:39 Modified on: 02/08/2026 - 08:37

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Polling stations opened around 8 a.m. local time (1 a.m. GMT) for this election which mobilizes 53 million voters. Two years after previous elections, Thailand votes on Sunday February 8 for early legislative elections in which reformists and conservatives face off.

Popular with young people in this kingdom where democracy operates in the grip of conservative institutions, the opposition is the favorite.

But analysts consider it unlikely that she will win an absolute majority, anticipating post-election negotiations to form an alliance.

Result: although leading the polls, the reformists of the People's Party are likely to find themselves blocked by an agreement between the conservative Bhumjaithai party and the populist Pheu Thai party, expected to come third.

The head of the center-right government Anutin Charnvirakul therefore appears well on his way to retaining his post, which he accessed in September after a turbulent period where power evolved in step with court decisions.

"If we are to believe the latest polls, they [the reformists] would be in the lead in these elections, but they are proposing to structurally change the system, in particular the place of the army within the country: if they have put water in their wine in relation to 2023, they are still perceived as calling into question the fundamental frameworks of the country, and could therefore face a coalition of more conservative parties which could slow down change", analysis with France 24 Arnaud Leveau, president of the independent research institute Asia Centre.

The vote is also being held in a context of sluggish economic growth in the Southeast Asian country, in competition with booming Vietnam, and whose vital tourism sector has not returned to its pre-pandemic level.

The next government will also have to manage an old cross-border conflict with Cambodia which degenerated twice last year into deadly clashes.

“I hope that the next government will bring real improvements to the population,” said Dam Nukonram, 77, first to arrive at the office in Buriram, Anutin Charnvirakul's hometown, referring to this conflict “so close” to his home.

To readIn Thailand, an aspiration for change and a taboo on the monarchy which is “fading”

“These elections are not only a choice of government, they also test the limits of the Thai system: we vote, but within a very closed framework. The issue is not to know who wins, but who will be in a position to govern,” continues Arnaud Leveau.

The risk of “prolonged frustration”

In a fragmented political landscape, Pheu Thai's score promises to be crucial: the formation of the dominant figure in Thai politics since the turn of the century, Thaksin Shinawatra, hopes to minimize its decline and establish itself as an indispensable partner in any coalition.

“Today, Thailand must change, your voice counts, so I would like to invite each of you to come and vote,” Thaksin's nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat, a candidate for the post of Prime Minister from Pheu Thai, told reporters in Bangkok.

For the People's Party, the anticipated scenario of a conservative alliance has the air of déjà vu. Its leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, nevertheless promised on Sunday to "form the people's government", anticipating a victory for his camp.

In 2023, the predecessor of the People's Party, Move Forward, created a surprise by winning the legislative elections. But his candidate was excluded from the post of Prime Minister, before the formation was dissolved under the law against the crime of lèse-majesté.

Pheu Thai then formed a coalition with Bhumjaithai, and placed two heads of government from its ranks.

Dismissed by the Constitutional Court last year, the second, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin, was replaced by the leader of Bhumjaithai, Anutin, third Prime Minister in two years.

At 59, this rich heir to a family that made its fortune in construction has been able to maneuver through shifting alliances over the past two decades to collect ministerial posts before taking the helm of the government.

“The current risk is not so much an immediate crisis following the election results and the formation of a new coalition, but rather a prolonged frustration: if the result is again neutralized by the country's institutions, distrust could deepen and Thailand could enter a new cycle of slow and long crisis,” explains Arnaud Leveau.

A dozen military coups

Since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932, the kingdom has experienced a dozen military coups, bloodily repressed demonstrations as well as dissolutions of parties and regular dismissals of Prime Ministers by the Constitutional Court.

The Constitution inherited from the last coup d'état, in 2014, followed by five years of military rule, grants considerable power to senators, who are not elected by universal suffrage.

A referendum also organized on Sunday should allow voters to decide on the principle of constitutional reform, but no specific measure is proposed.

Before the elections, a 26-year-old People's Party supporter, Patcharee Phadungsuksira, told AFP she wanted a system that was "more equitable and truly represents the voice of the people".

This reformist party advocates an end to conscription and a reduction in the number of generals.

Anutin Charnvirakul, of the conservative Bhumjaithai party, is doubling down on nationalist promises after fighting on the border with Cambodia last year which left dozens dead and more than a million displaced on both sides.

Also readCambodia-Thailand conflict: a border dispute that fuels nationalism

Pheu Thai is overtaken in public opinion by its two adversaries, weakened by the imprisonment of the wealthy Thaksin for corruption and by the dismissal of his daughter for comments considered too conciliatory towards Hun Sen, the former Cambodian Prime Minister.

With AFP

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