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Republicans are in a moment of deep reflection after the coalition that led Donald Trump to be nominated as the party's presidential candidate three times in a row imploded spectacularly in the 2026 midterm elections.
The surprising electoral defeat immediately raised questions about the party's future in the post-Trump era.
There are, however, no easy answers, as Republicans are faced with the choice of insisting on Trumpism or trying to chart a new course for the future as Trump enters his final years of political activity.
The gravity of the situation was best summed up by outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis when he described the midterm elections as "something close to an extinction event for Republicans."
Others took a more optimistic tone. Vice President JD Vance, who attributed the election results to public outrage over the war against Iran, argued that the party can still turn things around. Still, Vance acknowledged the fallout will be turbulent.
"There will be a lot of infighting and arguments about what happened and why it happened," Vance said.
The wide range of reactions on the right highlights deep fissures in the party — fractures that emerged around Trump's improbable rise to the presidency in 2016 and that have never actually disappeared.
It is too early to say which wing will emerge victorious. But while Republicans are still licking their wounds, the infighting predicted by Vance is already underway.
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The party needs to decide whether it will be "centered around a single figure, a single man, or a broader set of ideas, such as conservatism, that can win over voters outside the most loyal Republican strongholds," consultant and political strategist Rina Shah told the BBC.
Critics on the right — the group known as "Never Trumpers," adherents of the "Never Trump" movement that opposed his first campaign for the White House — argue for a return to the Republican Party's pre-Trump roots, pointing to the defeats the party suffered across the country on election night.
However, simply going back in time as if Trump never existed will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
The party has undergone a complete transformation during the decade that Trump has wielded his influence. Most Republicans have moved to the right on domestic issues such as immigration and rejected the interventionist foreign policy of the George W. Bush era that led to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In Congress, the more moderate and traditional wing of the party, which from the beginning viewed Trump with disapproval, has practically disappeared, giving way to conservatives who support Trump and echo his nativism and populist rhetoric.
That trend continued this year, when "old guard" Republicans like John Cornyn of Texas and Susan Collins of Maine, who are among those who have clashed with Trump over the years, lost their respective re-election races.
Three days after the midterms, Trump named Stephen Miller as his new White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles.
The move signaled that Trump has no intention of moderating his policies or rhetoric during the remainder of his term. Miller, who served as the president's top adviser on domestic policy, is a longtime Trump associate known for his hard-line stance on immigration.
Steve Bannon, one of the architects of the "Make America Great Again" movement ("Make America Great Again", known by its acronym in English, MAGA), predicted a "civil war" in the party after the midterm elections.
He later attributed the Republicans' defeat to the economy and "foreign wars." "I don't think we have implemented the MAGA program," he said, urging Trump to step up mass deportations.
However, other Republican strategists said the midterm elections served as a wake-up call for "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) supporters who want Trump's political movement to endure beyond his presidency.
“There are still a lot of MAGA voters out there who supported Donald Trump regardless of the circumstances,” said Whit Ayres, a political strategist with ties to Republicans.
“But there is also a significant portion of the Republican Party that is not a MAGA supporter — and that portion currently constitutes the majority.”
Should Republican candidates distance themselves from Trump?
The party lost control of the House and Senate, as well as state governments and state legislatures in Republican-majority states — so-called "red states" — such as Texas and Kansas, where Democrats had been out of power for decades and where Trump won by double-digit margins when his name was on the ballot.
These surprising defeats highlighted the unstable nature of political coalitions.
Trump expanded the Republican base in 2024, broadening support among Latinos and younger voters, as well as other key groups. Republicans celebrated these advances as a sign of future strength for the party.
Just two years later, the party lost ground in practically all decisive electoral segments. According to a New York Times analysis of voter data, Latino support for Democratic candidates grew 29 percentage points between 2024 and 2026. Support from young voters, aged 18 to 29, increased 33 points.
These fluctuations reflected polls conducted before the midterm elections, which showed widespread disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy, immigration and the war with Iran.
Democrats have also benefited from the public perception that the Trump family and administration are rife with instances of personal cronyism and corruption. The president's focus on work on the White House ballroom and other construction projects in Washington also contributed to the feeling among voters that he was more concerned about his legacy than dealing with cost-of-living issues.
That sentiment is shared by Benjamin Shrader, leader of the Young Republicans in Austin, who was still in shock as he spoke to the BBC in Texas the morning after his party was virtually wiped out of the state by a Democratic "blue tsunami."
When asked about the fact that the president used his first public appearance after the results were released to show off the design of the White House ballroom, Shrader said that Trump was still a "force of nature."
He hesitated before adding, "I would focus on issues that don't involve ballrooms, nor changing the names of places. I would focus on what really matters."
The evidence highlighted by the results of the midterm elections suggests that Republicans could benefit from distancing themselves from Trump with a view to 2028.
'Vance was the favorite – now the race is completely open'
Vice President JD Vance struck a delicate balance in his analysis of the midterm elections by blaming the war involving Iran and advocating a return to the "America First" doctrine.
It was a nuanced critique: He differed with Trump over an unpopular conflict, but at the same time he embraced a broader political platform that continues to enjoy popularity with the MAGA movement's base.
Trump's next steps regarding Iran will be closely watched by the party, given the impact they could have on the 2028 elections. An escalation in the conflict would risk reinforcing concerns expressed by Vance and other advocates of the "America First" agenda.
In a statement made on the social network X after the election, Vance also echoed calls, increasingly frequent on the right, for a reassessment of US support for Israel. He also signaled openness to promoting changes in the application of immigration policies.
This position conflicts with that of Miller, an ally of Vance who has been the main articulator of the immigration agenda for a possible second term.
Party strategists say the electoral setback in the midterms made Vance's path toward the party's nomination more complex.
"Before these elections, JD Vance was the absolute favorite to win the Republican nomination in 2028. Now, the race for candidacy is completely open," said political strategist Whit Ayres.
Trump's potential successors still have some time to evaluate their options, but they will need to make a decision relatively soon. Those aiming for the presidency in 2028 will be under pressure to announce their pre-candidacies in the coming months. Some may even launch their campaigns before the end of this year.
Vance's analysis of the election result was widely interpreted as an unofficial signal of his intentions to run. The primary contest is likely to feature a large number of candidates.
Other names being considered for the Republican nomination to run for president in the next election include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Senator Ted Cruz (Texas), Florida Governor DeSantis, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
In the next election cycle, both Republican candidates for president and Congress will have to make tough decisions on crucial issues of the day, from U.S. support for Israel and trade tariffs to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence.
Trump's power may wane as he enters the final two years of his second term, but he will remain the most influential voice within the party throughout that period.
It is unclear whether he will be deeply involved in the process or take a more distant stance.
Trump has praised Vance and Rubio on different occasions, but as a rule, he avoids answering questions about who he would like to succeed him.
His support will be the big unpredictable factor in the 2028 Republican primary race.
“It remains to be seen who will enter this dispute,” says Ayres.
"But I believe it will be much broader and more diverse than we anticipated before the midterm elections."
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