As of Tuesday, November 10, the Bitcoin vs gold race has an unusual score for 2026: both are losing. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 15.1% this year, and gold is down 5.9%.
That is rare. We compared the two assets’ returns up to November 10 in every year since 2015. Both were down at this point only twice before, in 2018 and 2022.
Gold is still ahead on the year. Gold futures trade at $4,086 an ounce, 23% below their record close of $5,318 on January 29. Bitcoin, at $74,259, is 40.5% below its record close of $124,753 from October 2025.
The calendar favors gold too. In each of the past 11 years, whichever asset led on November 10 also finished the year ahead.
But 2018 and 2022 ended the same way: Bitcoin hit its cycle low within six weeks and then beat gold by a wide margin the next year. So is 2026 setting up the same turn for 2027?
Bitcoin vs Gold: After Both Fell, Bitcoin Won the Next Year
The two earlier cases point the same way, though two cases are a small sample to build on.
- 2018: Bitcoin ended the year down 73.6% and gold down 2.1%. Bitcoin bottomed at $3,237 on December 15. In 2019, it gained 92.2%, while gold gained 18.9%.
- 2022: Bitcoin ended the year down 64.3% and gold down 0.1%. Bitcoin bottomed at $15,787 on November 21. In 2023, it gained 155.4%, against 13.4% for gold.
Both rebounds came in the year before a Bitcoin halving, the event every four years that cuts the number of new coins miners receive by half. The halvings fell in 2020 and 2024, and the next one is expected in 2028. That puts 2027 in the same slot as 2019 and 2023.
This year itself looks settled. Bitcoin beat gold in 8 of the 11 full years since 2015, and gold won only in 2018, 2022 and 2025. In every one of those 11 years, the asset that led on November 10 stayed ahead to December 31. Gold leads by about nine percentage points, so history hands it 2026, its second win in a row.
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Gold Fell 23% From Its Record, Yet ETF Buyers Kept Adding
Gold’s slide has been steep for a metal. It closed at a record $5,318 on January 29, fell as low as $3,899 on October 30, and now trades at $4,086.
Investors have not walked away. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hold physical gold and trade like stocks. Worldwide, they added $2.7 billion in October, their fourth straight month of inflows, the World Gold Council reported on November 5. Their holdings rose 19 tonnes to a record 4,275 tonnes. Over the first ten months of the year, the funds took in $41 billion, the third-strongest run on record. North American funds were the exception, with small outflows.
Bitcoin has done better since February. Measured in gold, one Bitcoin bought 21.1 ounces on January 5. By February 23, that had fallen to 12.4 ounces, the lowest since March 2023. It now buys 18.2 ounces.
The gap since that February low is wide. Bitcoin is up 14.9% since February 23, while gold is down 21.8%. Since June 30, Bitcoin has gained 26.8% and gold 1.2%.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Today’s CPI Report Tests the $73,500 Floor – Will Bitcoin Hold?
Both assets face the same test today. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October’s consumer price index (CPI), the main measure of inflation, at 8:30 a.m. in New York, or 13:30 UTC.
Bitcoin trades at $74,278 ahead of the release. On Sunday, it fell to $73,510, its lowest price since August 21.
On the daily chart, where each candle covers one day, Bitcoin sits below both of its exponential moving averages (EMAs), averages that give recent prices more weight. The 200-day EMA stands at $76,480 and the 50-day EMA at $79,124.
- Resistance: $76,480, the 200-day EMA, then $81,196, the November 4 high.
- Support: $73,510, Sunday’s low, then $68,902, the August 20 low. Below that, $62,535, the August 14 low.
BTCUSDT 1D chart. Source: TradingView.
ScenarioTriggerLevel to watchRecoveryA daily close above $76,480$81,196, the November 4 highHolding patternBitcoin stays between $73,510 and $76,480A range below both EMAsFurther dropA daily close below $73,510$68,902, the August 20 lowCrypto Expert Report: Follow The Money – Which Presales Are Attracting Crypto Whales in 2026?
For gold, the line to watch is $3,899, the October 30 low. In the Bitcoin vs gold race, gold is on track to take 2026. If Bitcoin holds $73,510 and its 2018 and 2022 pattern repeats, 2027 is the year history gives to Bitcoin.
The post Bitcoin vs Gold: History Points to a Potential BTC Comeback in 2027 appeared first on Tokenist.
