According to the Global Carbon Project, emissions caused by the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas are expected to fall by 0.4% in 2026 thanks to the deployment of renewables, but also due to the crisis in the Middle East. An encouraging signal, but still insufficient to achieve global climate goals.

Published on: 10/11/2026 - 02:48 Modified on: 10/11/2026 - 10:14

After an average increase of 0.9% each year over the last decade, emissions from the combustion of oil, gas and coal, the main drivers of climate change, are expected to fall by 0.4% in 2026, indicates the "Global Carbon Budget", the reference scientific report published Tuesday November 10 on the occasion of COP31 in Antalya, Turkey.

This decline, linked in particular to the rise in oil prices resulting from the war in the Middle East and the development of renewable energies, is certainly "encouraging", but "a reduction due in part to geopolitical shocks does not constitute a sustainable climate solution", underlines Pierre Friedlingstein, main author of the report.

A likely rebound

This would be the first annual decline in global emissions since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic paralyzed the global economy, trade and transport.

This year, the war in Iran involving the United States and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have reduced oil consumption, contributing to a decline in emissions, against a backdrop of soaring crude prices.

The deployment of solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles, covering two thirds of the increase in global energy demand, also contributed to this drop in emissions, according to the report.

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But, for Corinne Le Quéré, contributor to the report and professor at the University of East Anglia, this setback could only be temporary.

A rebound is likely "once oil-related tensions have eased", she indicated during a press briefing, recalling that, in the past, emissions have tended to rebound during economic recoveries following shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis.

“A drop in emissions over a single year does not constitute a peak, unless it is the result of a structural change,” also explains Glen Peters, of the Center for International Climate Research.

For him, the accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles certainly makes it possible to reduce or slow down the growth of emissions in certain countries, but these developments "are not yet sufficient".

“Further acceleration is needed for global emissions to peak and then begin a lasting decline,” said Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter.

Carbon budget exhausted in four years

According to the report's authors, global oil-related emissions are expected to decline by 1.9% in 2026, but this is "likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the conflict involving Iran."

Those linked to gas should decrease by 0.3%, while those from the use of coal should increase by 0.6%.

By country, China, responsible for 32% of global fossil emissions, is expected to reduce its emissions by 0.9% this year, the United States by 1.3%, mainly due to a drop in coal emissions, and Europe by 1.5%. India's emissions, on the other hand, are expected to increase by 4.4%.

Globally, fossil CO₂ emissions are expected to reach 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026. With land use changes, including deforestation, the total would rise to 43.3 billion tonnes, compared to 42.8 billion in 2025.

The report indicates that the global "carbon budget", or the quantity of CO₂ still emitted before global warming exceeds the threshold of 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, stands at 150 billion tonnes. According to researchers' calculations, at the current rate, it will be exhausted in less than four years.

Set by the Paris Agreement in 2015, the 1.5°C objective aims to limit the consequences of global warming. The United Nations confirmed in September that its excess was now inevitable, due to failure to sufficiently reduce human-caused emissions, calling for temperatures to fall below this threshold as quickly as possible to avoid a multiplication and intensification of climate disasters.

With AFP

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