Credit, Pablo PORCIUNCULA and Andrew CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP via Getty Images
This Tuesday (03/11), nine days after the re-election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), a new vote will be crucial to determine the future of Brazil's relations with its main partner in the Americas: the mid-term elections in the United States.
The election will define all 435 seats in the Chamber of Representatives (equivalent to the Chamber of Deputies in Brazil) and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, in addition to 39 governors of states and territories and several other state and local positions.
Voting intention surveys indicate that the Democratic opposition has a chance of winning a majority in the Chamber and, perhaps, even in the Senate, in what has been described as a "blue wave" (in reference to the color associated with the Democratic Party).
This would represent a change in the US political scenario, where President Donald Trump's Republican Party currently controls not only the Executive, but also both Houses of the Legislature, which has allowed it to advance its agenda without much resistance.
This agenda includes everything from tariffs on products imported from several countries, including Brazil, to a war in Iran and military actions in Latin America, where the Trump administration has the declared objective of "restoring American prominence in the Western Hemisphere".
US-Brazil relations
Since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, relations with Brazil have been going through a period of tension. Trump imposed a "tariff" on Brazilian products and sanctions against authorities in response to what he described as "persecution" suffered by former president Jair Bolsonaro, father of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Lula's opponent in this election.
The Brazilian ambassador in Washington, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, has had her visa revoked since August. She remains authorized to work in the country, but if she leaves the USA, she would need a new visa to re-enter American territory.
During the campaign, Lula criticized American measures and focused on a speech defending sovereignty.
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Unlike what he did in disputes in other Latin American countries, Trump did not publicly speak out in favor of any of the candidates in Brazil.
But a victory for Flávio, the Republican's ideological ally, would represent the consolidation of Trump's influence in the region, amid a wave of recently elected right-wing leaders. There was also an expectation that Flávio would adopt a foreign policy more in line with that of the USA.
Lula will have the challenge of overcoming diplomatic friction with the USA. But the Brazilian president could begin his fourth term in the face of a weakened Trump and, possibly, an American Congress willing to exercise greater scrutiny over the Republican's agenda for Latin America.
"Lula has always been very pragmatic in his relations with the USA", historian Lucas de Souza Martins, a researcher at Temple University in Philadelphia, tells BBC News Brasil.
"Although he used the discourse of sovereignty as an electoral instrument, he never shied away from keeping open the search for relations through institutional, bilateral channels, with the USA", he observes.
Falling popularity
Trump has been asking voters to "pretend" his name "is on the ballot." But the November elections take place at a time when the president is facing a sharp drop in popularity, with approval at just 31% according to a recent survey.
Americans are worried about the cost of living, inflation and high fuel prices, made worse by the US decision to attack Iran in February. According to surveys, less than 30% approve of the way Trump is managing the economy.
The advancement of Artificial Intelligence and data centers, and their environmental impacts and energy costs, also generate dissatisfaction. The government's actions regarding immigration and allegations of corruption are other reasons for discontent.
Polls show a loss of support including among demographic groups that drove his return to the White House, such as young people and voters of Hispanic origin.
Faced with this scenario, many candidates from their own party have been trying to distance themselves from Trump, while Democrats have managed to advance in states traditionally favorable to Republicans.
Credit, Reuters
Historically, the opposition party tends to do well in midterm elections. This has occurred several times in recent years, including in 2022, halfway through Democrat Joe Biden's administration, when Republicans won back the House.
Analysts believe that, this November, Democrats have a good chance of winning a majority in the Chamber. A national poll by The New York Times and Siena University, released on 10/21, shows Democrats with an 11 percentage point lead.
In the Senate, where Republicans have 53 seats and Democrats 45 (in addition to the support of two independent senators), the dispute is more difficult. Of the 35 seats at stake, 22 are occupied by Republicans, and 13 by Democrats, who would need to flip four additional seats to win a majority.
Marco Rubio
If the polls are confirmed and the Democrats actually take control of one or both Houses, they will have more power to monitor and challenge Trump's agenda. They would also represent an important interlocutor for Brazil.
Martins recalls that an important factor in the internal context in the USA is the presence of Marco Rubio in command of the State Department, responsible for the country's foreign relations. Rubio leads a wing considered more ideological and aligned to the right, which competes with another, more pragmatic group, for Trump's attention when the topic is the relationship with Brazil.
“Rubio has presidential aspirations, he is a kind of Republican pre-candidate,” says Martins.
"If the Democrats take control of both Houses and, consequently, of the committees (in the Legislature), they will specifically oppose foreign policy, because there is a potential opponent (for the 2028 presidential election)."
"Consequently, Latin America will impose itself as an agenda of this democratic opposition precisely because, for Rubio, Latin America under American rule is his specific task, delegated directly by the US president", says Martins.
According to the historian, in a context in which Trump and Rubio are weakened, Latin America should lose weight as a government priority.
"The Democrats gaining a majority in the Chamber would mean more hearings in parliamentary committees and, possibly, investigations organized by Congress", political scientist Michael Traugott, professor emeritus at the University of Michigan, tells BBC News Brasil.
"It's not clear what the effect of these initiatives will be, because Trump tends to ignore any questions of his policies. But there will be more public information, including details and costs of specific policies. And I think Congress will try to impose budget limits on many of them."
According to the American Constitution, the Legislature has the prerogative to regulate foreign trade and apply tariffs. If Democrats regain the majority, they must address the tariffs imposed by Trump and their impact on the US economy.
Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on products from several countries, including Brazil. When the Supreme Court struck down the use of this law, the president turned to other legal bases to maintain his tariff policy.
Credit, Joe Raedle/Getty Images
"A Democratic majority in the Chamber will have much more capacity to supervise the Executive", consultant Kristina Rosales, specialist in trade relations between Brazil and the USA and former spokesperson for the American State Department, tells BBC News Brasil.
However, she notes that, if he feels pressured, the president could resort to more executive instruments to advance his agenda. "In the case of tariff policy, I think it would be a complicated negotiation scenario", he states.
Military strength in Latin America
A Democratic-dominated Congress could also more rigorously examine the way Trump has approached his Latin America policy from a security perspective. One of the focuses of the strategy for the region is the fight against drug trafficking and organized crime, and several countries have already allowed joint military actions in their territories.
Since last year, the US has designated more than 20 Latin American cartels and criminal groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, including the Brazilian factions Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV).
This classification, supported by Flávio Bolsonaro, contradicted President Lula's government. There is fear that the US will use the pretext of combating organized crime to implement a broader agenda in Latin America, amid proposals for militarization in the region.
At the beginning of the year, the Trump administration launched the so-called Shield of the Americas, a regional alliance made up of 15 countries, most of them with right-wing leaders allied with the Republican, to expand cooperation, security and the fight against drug trafficking in Latin America. Brazil is not part of it.
The US Constitution guarantees Congress the prerogative to declare war. With the majority, Democrats would also gain control of powerful committees, such as the Armed Services Committee, responsible for overseeing the Armed Forces.
Hearings and investigations are expected into episodes such as military attacks against small vessels in the Caribbean and the Pacific. More than 200 people were killed under the allegation, without evidence, that they were "narco-terrorists" transporting drugs into the US.
American policy in Venezuela would also be in the spotlight, where a military operation in January of this year attacked Caracas to capture President Nicolás Maduro, taken to the USA and indicted on a series of drug trafficking charges. One of the targets of investigations could be the management of oil revenues.
In the specific case of the Senate, a Democratic majority could block Trump's nominations for various cabinet positions, ambassadors and members of the Judiciary, including possible vacancies on the Supreme Court.
A majority in Congress would also guarantee control over the budget and greater power to conduct investigations into possible abuses of power by the president, including the opening of impeachment proceedings.
Post-Trump transition
But even if the opposition dominates the Legislature, it will still face limitations. Trump maintains his power to veto projects approved by Democrats and has already stated that, if Republicans lose control of Congress, he intends to block opposition proposals.
Despite the majority party leading committees in the House and Senate responsible for conducting investigations, Trump could refuse to comply with subpoenas and delay the process until the end of his term, effectively blocking enforcement efforts.
However, a Democratic majority would make the final two years of his presidency difficult. The US Constitution prevents the president from seeking a third term, and the US is preparing for a post-Trump transition period.
Credit, Chris Torres / EPA/Shutterstock
“Any president in his second term becomes a lame duck after the midterm legislative elections,” Traugott points out.
This expression, translated as "lame duck", is used in American politics to describe the period at the end of a term, when the president who will be succeeded usually has reduced influence.
"We don't know what the consequences will be of Trump becoming a 'lame duck', because he doesn't pay much attention to Congress, he prefers to resort to presidential decrees," says Traugott. "And there is no reason to believe he will reduce the use of presidential decrees."
For Rosales, the possible new scenario in Washington, in the context of a weakened Trump, represents an opportunity, but also risks for the Brazilian government.
"The Lula government will have to seek a better relationship with the Trump administration, but at the same time also build bridges and a relationship with new actors who will be preparing for 2028", he states.
"The bilateral relationship will have to be built with several institutions in mind, taking into account that the cycle is changing in the USA", notes Rosales.
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