Credit, Sigit Prasetya/NurPhoto/Getty Images
The world is on track to have the hottest year on record, as climate change and the El Niño phenomenon raise the planet's temperatures, according to scientists interviewed by BBC News.
The alert coincides with the opening of the 31st United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP31), which brings together world leaders and negotiators starting this Monday (9/11), in Turkey.
Even though there are two months left until the end of the year, Berkeley Earth, an independent research group in the United States responsible for predicting that 2026 will be the hottest year on record, says there is a 95% chance that 2026 will be hotter than 2024, which is currently the hottest year on record.
According to Berkeley Earth, this possible record is driven by an El Niño of record intensity that has maintained every month since July above 1.5°C, raised the oceans to the highest temperature ever measured and should sustain extreme heat until December, enough to surpass, by a narrow margin, the 2024 mark.
El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs approximately every two to seven years, changes weather patterns in different parts of the world, causing droughts in some regions and more intense typhoons and floods in others.
The effects of rising temperatures have been felt intensely in recent months by countries participating in the COP, with large forest fires in several regions of Europe and the sudden collapse of a glacier in Nepal, which killed more than 1,000 people.
"We have seen a string of years with record temperatures," said climatologist Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth. "That's what we expect as global warming advances...collapsing glaciers, heat waves and record droughts."
On Friday (6/11), the European Union's Copernicus climate monitoring service confirmed that October was the hottest month on record.
End of Most read
But Rohde warned that this is just the beginning: "Much bigger and more drastic changes could occur in the future."
The main factor behind the rise in global temperatures has been the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, caused mainly by the burning of fossil fuels.
The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its own report today (11/9). Although it adopted a more cautious assessment than Berkeley Earth, the WMO predicts that 2026 will be among the four hottest years on record.
According to the WMO, there will be no respite in 2027, as an exceptionally intense El Niño will continue next year, raising temperatures even further.
WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo stated that this "gives new meaning to the expression 'out of scale'".
Watch news from Brazil and the world on the BBC World Service
Download here
End of app promotion
The results show the scale of the challenge faced by negotiators who meet in the coastal city of Antalya, Turkey, for COP31.
In previous conferences, the focus was on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the main cause of climate change. Now, an increasing number of countries need to face this challenge and, at the same time, adapt to extreme climate phenomena caused by global warming.
"No COP, by itself, is capable of solving the problem. No conference can eliminate the gap between what science shows and reality", said Simon Stiell, the UN's main authority on climate issues, in his speech to government representatives on the opening morning of the event.
And Stiell will also say: "The urgency of this moment should drive us to act. Global warming is already costing the planet dearly."
Last month, the United Kingdom's Secretary of Defense warned the population and companies of the need to prepare for increasingly frequent natural disasters, including building food stocks.
In an interview with the BBC's Panorama program, Stephen Belcher, chief scientist at the Met Office, the British meteorological service, said: "We were prepared for a 20th century climate, which we no longer live in. Therefore, every aspect of our lives will be affected."
The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has caused greater heat retention, around 90% of which is absorbed by the oceans.
That's where El Niño comes in, explained Saulo, from the WMO. "The phenomenon does not add heat to the planet. It releases heat stored in the oceans, which have never been so warm since measurements began. This means there is more heat available to be released."
This natural climate phenomenon is raising global temperatures even further.
At the current rate, the planet's average temperature could rise by 2.8°C by the end of the century, compared to pre-industrial levels. This makes it practically inevitable that warming will exceed the 1.5°C limit established by the Paris Agreement — an international treaty signed in 2015 — to avoid the most serious effects of climate change.
What advances can COP31 bring?
The countries will negotiate for two weeks, with the participation of world leaders, including the British Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, and the Brazilian President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who will be present at the conference this week.
Previous climate conferences have resulted in new goals to reduce the use of fossil fuels, expand financing for developing countries and protect forests.
While greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, countries have also made significant progress in expanding renewable energy generation capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that growth over the next six years will be 57% higher than in the previous period.
Stiell, from the UN, will also be able to say that the expansion of renewable energy represents a solution to both climate change and the economic impacts of recent energy crises.
"Renewable energy sources generated savings of around US$500 billion [about R$2.7 trillion] worldwide last year."
Credit, Yuan Hongyan/VCG/Getty Images
The Turkish government says it intends to focus this year's discussions on defining a new electrification goal, which consists of replacing the use of fossil fuels with electricity in energy systems, and reducing waste generation.
But the topic is likely to provoke divergences between countries.
Draft versions of the European Union's position, seen by the BBC, make it clear that the bloc will only accept an electrification target if the use of natural gas cannot be counted towards its achievement.
"It is important that advances in electrification are supported by clean energy sources," states a memo sent to the bloc's members.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, however, have already advocated the temporary use of natural gas as a "cleaner" fossil alternative to coal.
Credit, Pablo Porciuncula/AFP/Getty Images
According to information obtained by the BBC, the British government is reluctant to set new goals at COP31 and considers that the priority should be to comply with the agreements already signed.
However, British media published this Monday (9/11) revealed that the British government is expected to relax its targets for electric vehicles, a move that, according to sustainability organizations, could compromise the country's long-term climate goals.
In September, the British government was also criticized by parliamentarians on the International Development Commission over cuts to the international aid budget, which would compromise the fulfillment of previous climate finance commitments.
At previous climate conferences, the richest countries had agreed to triple the resources allocated to developing nations to help them adapt to climate change, with the goal of reaching at least US$85 billion (about R$460 billion) by 2035.
The most recent data, from 2024, shows that countries have reached around a third of this value. The UN, however, said this week that the damage already caused by climate change is "significant" and that a much greater volume of resources may be needed.
But many countries have allocated resources previously reserved for international aid to defense spending and emergency measures to provide financial support to families, given the soaring prices of gas and oil following the war between Iran and the USA.
Governments should also take advantage of the meeting to discuss global policies for artificial intelligence (AI), including the growing demand for energy and water resources in data processing centers that enable the expansion of the technology.
Additional reporting by Miho Tanaka
Discover more
Watch
End of Watch
