While the White House once again insists that diplomatic contact is underway with the Government of Miguel Díaz-Canel, it denies once again that talks have begun with Donald Trump, but appears willing to open them. The island is at its weakest moment since the fall of the former Soviet Union. To resist, reactivate survival mode, but also announce defense and energy transition plans.

First modification: 02/06/2026 - 04:26Last modification: 02/06/2026 - 04:33

To display this YouTube content, you must allow advertising and audience measurement cookies.

An extension on your browser appears to be blocking the video player from loading. In order to view this content, you must disable it on this site.

Tensions between Cuba and the United States have not eased. In fact, the capture of Havana's main partner, the now deposed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, has reactivated the moments of greatest tension in the relationship. But in the midst of the maelstrom, the prospect of talks continues to appear as a probable scenario.

The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, once again insisted on February 5, as Washington has done in recent days, that there is an open diplomatic channel for understanding.

"As I have already reiterated, President (Donald) Trump always has a willingness to bet on diplomacy, and I think that is something that is in fact taking place with the Cuban Government," said Leavitt.

To display this content from X (Twitter), you must allow audience measurement and advertising cookies.

But the official reinstated Washington in a position of strength, recalling that "given that the Cuban Government is on its last legs and that the country is about to collapse, they should be cautious in their statements addressed to the president of the United States."

Havana has once again denied that there are talks in progress, as Donald Trump has stated, but for the second time in the midst of the greatest worsening of relations in recent times, it has shown its willingness to dialogue.

In a press conference called this February 5, President Miguel Díaz-Canel spoke in the same sense as his Vice Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossio did a couple of days ago, stating that Cuba "is willing to engage in dialogue with the United States" and that its objective is to build "a civilized relationship between neighbors" and of "mutual benefit."

"Under what conditions? Without pressure, under pressure you cannot dialogue, without preconditioning, in a position of equals," demanded Díaz-Canel, in a speech in which he also announced contingency measures similar to those of the so-called "special period", to face the energy crisis that will deepen in the coming days.

Are Trump and Díaz-Canel ready to sit down to negotiate or not, as proposed by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum? Despite the versions found, many clues suggest that it is the right time for the approach.

Cuba in extreme circumstances

In his unusual television appearance on February 5 with the media, Díaz-Canel acknowledged that the island has not received fuel since last December.

The date coincides with the last days in Miraflores of Nicolás Maduro, extracted by US Delta forces on January 3 to respond to accusations of drug trafficking before a New York court.

Experts estimate that of the 110,000 barrels of oil per day that Cuba needs to satisfy its energy demand, 30,000 were supplied by Venezuela, a supply that has been abruptly closed with the arrival to power of interim president Delcy Rodríguez, who governs under strong pressure from Trump.

Kenia Montoya, a resident of Santa Cruz del Norte who spoke with the AP, described the situation on the island more eloquently than any piece of political rhetoric. The 50-year-old woman said that she had just torn off the wooden door of her bathroom to use it as firewood to cook food for her children.

"Things are getting worse for us now. They don't supply us with oil. They don't supply us with food. Where does that leave us, then?" Montoya asked.

Cuba is probably in its most vulnerable position since the 1990s, when the collapse of the Soviet Union left the island without the support of its main political partner.

"The crisis is of greater magnitude, especially because the Government's reserve of good will towards the population, which was shown in other delicate moments such as the 'special period', seems smaller," warns Arturo López-Levy, professor of Politics and International Relations at Holy Names University in Oakland, California.

"At other times there was the expectation that the Government was going to implement reforms, it was going to produce changes, but now the situation is much more desperate, because without energy there is no possibility of moving the country," adds López-Levy.

Is the circumstance conducive for Havana to open up to what Díaz-Canel conditioned as a dialogue from a “position of respect for sovereignty and self-determination”?

Leduán Ramírez, a political analyst who spoke with France 24, doubted what he described as “a very opaque appearance, very in line with the Cuban leadership's narrative of victimizing itself and blaming external factors for the Cuban situation.”

For Ramírez, the opening to dialogue is a “bet on prolonging the situation,” waiting for a weakening of the interlocutor's position, “either due to the midterm elections or a possible Democratic victory in the next presidential elections.”

However, Ramírez warns that Cuba could be alone in this effort to survive pressure from Trump, who has threatened punitive tariffs on countries that sell oil to the island.

“The Government has lost many allies, in part by not paying loans,” says the analyst, who also attributes the isolation to the internal challenges of traditional partners, “Russia in its war with Ukraine and China in its tariff war in the United States.”

López-Levy also points out the doubt about the nature of the rapprochements: "There is a reiteration that the scheme of these conversations is within the framework of the Helms Law, according to which, any agreement with Cuba is to produce a regime change imposed by the United States. With that premise it is very difficult for the Cuban Government to negotiate."

According to the expert, the rigidity of this framework prevents progress on other issues of common interest such as migration, the release of political prisoners or drug trafficking.

"According to (Secretary of State Marco) Rubio and sectors related to him, negotiating outside that framework sends a bad signal that the United States could have coexistence with a regime whose only objective is overthrow," adds López-Levy.

Between breathing and suffocation

Other signs suggest a breath of oxygen to encourage favorable results in an eventual approach.

Trump is betting on a spontaneous collapse and ruling out forceful options like those he applied in Venezuela.

“I don't think we need any action,” the US president said on January 4, a day after Maduro's capture. "Cuba seems like it is about to fall, it is sinking definitively. I don't know how they are going to be able to maintain themselves, they have no income. They received all their income from Venezuela, from Venezuelan oil."

But at the same time as he expects that implosion, Trump seems to be showing signs of wanting to ease the pressure.

The Trump Administration's top aid official, Jeremy Lewin, announced on February 5 an increase in humanitarian aid to the island to help alleviate the consequences of Hurricane Melissa.

After a first disbursement of three million dollars for these purposes, Lewin anticipated a second shipment in the order of six million, which will be delivered through the Catholic Church, without interference from Havana.

At the same time, the Reuters agency reported on a shipping schedule supervised by the United States, according to which a tanker loaded with 150,000 barrels of gasoline bound for Cuba would be about to set sail from Venezuela, or would have recently set sail.

Could these relief measures be an incentive to improve the disposition of the Cuban Government in an eventual negotiation?

At the same time, Mexico is looking for a way to alleviate Cuban energy emergencies without exposing itself to retaliation from the United States, as confirmed by sources from Claudia Sheinbaum's government to the Reuters agency.

According to that version, Mexican officials would be trying to obtain greater clarity from Washington about the scope of Trump's punitive tariff measure, to determine if there is a way to assist the island without risking its own trade policy paying the consequences.

"There are conversations almost every other day, every other day," said one of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Mexico does not want tariffs to be imposed, but it is also firm in its policy of helping the Cuban people."

"Imposing tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba could trigger a far-reaching humanitarian crisis, directly affecting hospitals, food and other basic services for the Cuban people, a situation that must be avoided through respect for international law and dialogue," Sheinbaum had warned on January 30.

The alert was replicated less than a week later by UN Secretary General António Guterres, who through his spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric warned of a humanitarian “collapse” as a result of the interruption of crude oil supplies.

Neither the White House nor the State Department nor the Mexican Presidency responded to questions from Reuters in this regard, but an eventual flexibility could be used by Washington as a strategy to shore up the success of its positions if the dialogue proposed by Sheinbaum were to take place.

With Reuters, EFE and AP

Related keywords

The content you requested does not exist or is no longer available.