After affirming that he was ready to deliver a "massive blow" to Iran this weekend, American President Donald Trump changed his tune on Monday, assuring that an agreement with Tehran "could happen".

Published on: 02/11/2026 - 23:56

After the threats made during the weekend, the tone changed significantly on Monday November 2 between Iranians and Americans, Donald Trump declaring on the eve of important elections in the United States that an agreement with Iran "could happen".

“Oil prices are falling like stones (...) because people feel that there will be no war with Iran. Iran wants an agreement, as quickly as possible. It could happen!”, wrote the American president on his Truth Social platform.

Also read Strait of Hormuz: why the great return of oil is not enough to lower prices

This weekend, he said he was ready to give Iran a "massive blow" and declared that he still had to "take care of" one or two Iranian nuclear sites.

American Vice President J.D. Vance, for his part, assured Monday that Donald Trump and himself felt "rather optimistic" about a negotiated agreement to end the war with Iran, without setting a timetable.

“Intense” consultation

The positions remain very far apart but, according to Iran, the consultations are "intense" to avoid a resumption of hostilities with the United States, a climate which caused oil prices to fall on Monday.

Tehran said it was ready to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz - at the heart of the conflict - in two days, instead of the initial plan of seven days, but while maintaining its draconian conditions, which Donald Trump had rejected in September.

Exchanges via Qatari mediation have increased in order to avoid a repeat of the 40 days of intense bombing this summer and to try to relaunch negotiations in this conflict which is shaking the world economy.

“Given the sensitivity and seriousness of the current situation, consultations and deliberations are very intense,” declared the head of Iranian diplomacy Abbas Araghchi, emphasizing “the very active mediating role” of Qatar and Pakistan.

Respite on the markets

In an apparent desire to facilitate discussions, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei "granted certain powers to the government", according to President Massoud Pezeshkian.

These statements, combined with press information, caused a respite on the markets, where the barrel of Brent, an international benchmark, fell 7.64% to 104.77 dollars, against around 70 dollars before the start of the war.

Also read: Will Trump drop “the mother of all bombs” on Iran?

Since the start of the war, triggered by Israeli-American strikes on Iran on February 28, Tehran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and regularly targets ships that try to cross it without its authorization. A ship was hit on Sunday by "an unknown projectile" at the mouth of this strait, according to the British maritime safety agency UKMTO.

In September, Iran presented, via Qatar, a seven-day plan to reopen the sea route but the American president rejected it, while leaving the door open to continuing indirect negotiations.

Tehran conditions the reopening of the strait on a ceasefire on all regional fronts, the unfreezing of its assets held abroad, the lifting of sanctions hitting its oil sector as well as the end of the American naval blockade against its ports.

New route to Hormuz

On Sunday, Abbas Araghchi added to these demands Washington's acceptance of the "new route agreed between Iran and Oman for transit through the Strait of Hormuz."

If a military lull has been observed since September, the United States and Israel have increased their threats in recent days, in the context of difficult mid-term elections on Tuesday for Donald Trump and post-election uncertainties in Israel.

According to the media Axios, citing American and Israeli sources, Donald Trump, who spoke by telephone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a supporter of an offensive, wishes for the moment to let the negotiations take their course. Asked by a reporter Monday whether he would resume strikes after Tuesday's election, Donald Trump replied: "No."

“Diplomatic signals could be tactical as the mid-term elections approach,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyst at Global Risk Management. Because “the war is unpopular in the United States, particularly because of soaring fuel prices, and Trump has a political interest in suggesting that a possible end to the conflict is possible.”

With AFP

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