President Donald Trump has threatened to repatriate 5,000 US troops stationed in Germany in response to Berlin's criticism of the war in the Middle East. Although the announced number may seem low, it indicates Washington's desire to call into question European security, which could weaken the American capacity to carry out military operations outside its territory.

Published on: 05/04/2026 - 5:49 p.m. Modified on: 05/04/2026 - 7:16 p.m.

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Is it 5,000 fewer American troops, or more? The military withdrawal announced by Donald Trump on Friday May 1 only concerns Germany, but will the American president decide to stop there, or extend this initiative to other European countries?

The American president's decision resembles, a priori, a "outburst of anger after the criticisms of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz" concerning the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran, notes Emma Salisbury, specialist in American military issues at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, an American think tank.

Donald Trump's "outburst of anger"

The head of the German government deplored at the end of April the American "clear lack of strategy" in the Middle East and suggested that the negotiations were turning in favor of the Iranians. Enough to put Donald Trump – who has been saying for weeks that the United States is constantly winning the war – beside himself.

The threat by the Americans to withdraw part of their troops strikes a sensitive chord in Germany. These "GIs" are both a cumbersome vestige of the Cold War while being perceived as a guarantee of security for the "American friend", several German media have highlighted.

For certain German cities, the American presence is even vital economically, specifies the Süddeutsche Zeitung, a major daily newspaper in southern Germany. This is the case at Ramstein, "where the American base represents a city within a city. And Donald Trump also regretted that these military personnel spend their money in Germany rather than in the United States", underlines Dafydd Townley, political scientist and specialist in national security issues in the United States at the University of Portsmouth.

This announced withdrawal must, however, be seen in the more global context of the American military presence in Europe. Washington has a contingent of 36,436 soldiers in Germany, and "the United States will be able to continue to fulfill its missions, even with 5,000 fewer soldiers, unless Donald Trump decides to repatriate very specialized troops", estimates Emma Salisbury.

In fact, “the American military presence in Europe has increased by around 5,000 men since the start of the Russian invasion war in Ukraine,” specifies this expert. If Donald Trump carries out his threat, it will simply be a return to the situation before 2022.

“We are going to reduce even more”

No reason to fear for European security at a time when the possibility of Russian aggression against Europe seems more pressing than ever? Friedrich Merz tried to minimize the impact of a possible withdrawal of American troops by ensuring that it “was not unexpected”. It is true that Donald Trump had already threatened to repatriate nearly 10,000 soldiers stationed in Germany in 2019, during his first term.

Except that the American president took advantage of the weekend to outbid his initial threat. “We are going to reduce considerably. And much more than 5,000,” Donald Trump declared on Sunday during a trip to Florida.

It is impossible to know whether this extension of the area of ​​withdrawal concerns only Germany, or whether it is the beginning of a broader disengagement in Europe. Indeed, the Americans have 86,000 soldiers throughout Europe.

Also read: European Defense Summit: after the speeches, the actions?

For Time magazine, the tenant of the White House would have Italy and Spain in his sights. These two countries respectively host a contingent of more than 12,000 men for Italy and nearly 3,900 for Spain. It is, with Germany in first position, the top three European states where the largest number of American military personnel are stationed.

These are also two countries that have irritated Donald Trump recently. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has strongly criticized the war against Iran, going so far as to ban US military planes from flying over its airspace. Giorgia Meloni, Italian Prime Minister, had the misfortune of defending Pope Leo XIV, who had criticized the warmongering of the White House.

Everything therefore happens as if Donald Trump were considering his military personnel abroad as an adjustment variable to take revenge on the countries which criticized him. “This is proof that he absolutely does not understand the reason for these contingents in Europe. Donald Trump seems to think that these bases are only a protection service provided to Europe by Washington, while they are crucial for American military operations in the world,” assures Emma Salisbury.

A lose-lose decision... except for Moscow?

“Ramstein and Stuttgart, Germany, are critical logistics hubs for the U.S. military,” explains Dafydd Townley. “They serve as a rallying point for the deployment of forces to the Middle East, for example,” adds Emma Salisbury.

In Italy, the Naples naval base “is crucial for the maritime operations of the American army,” specifies the specialist.

American elected officials have also warned the White House against the temptation to reduce its military presence in Europe. European countries like Germany provide “easy access, facilities and overflight rights necessary for American forces to support Operation Epic Fury,” two Republican senators emphasized in an open letter.

For Europe, Donald Trump's announcement may not change the security situation in the short term, "but it is a signal to European governments that the American president is no longer bluffing when he threatens to disengage in Europe", estimates Dafydd Townley.

A message that should also be received five out of five in Moscow. This withdrawal “could embolden Russia to look beyond Ukraine because this decision gives the impression that NATO may no longer be the formidable deterrent it once was,” fears Dafydd Townley.

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For the experts interviewed, it is essential that European leaders seize in Yerevan "this umpteenth reminder that we must no longer rely on the United States as before and must strengthen their common defense", notes Emma Salisbury.

Easier said than done. “Europe does not yet have the production capacity of the United States to quickly deal with external aggression. It is also technologically dependent on the Americans for its defense systems. Not to mention that there is, at present, no consensus on which country could lead such a common defense,” lists Dafydd Townley. And until European countries come to an agreement, there would be a real security vacuum. For the experts interviewed, Europe must above all hope that internal political pressure in the United States will prevent Donald Trump from withdrawing too quickly and too forcefully from Europe.

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