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First modification: 04/30/2026 - 04:54 Last modification: 05/01/2026 - 04:03
Decisions on interest rates these days are subject to what happens in the Middle East, where the conflict seems to have no diplomatic solution in sight. The United States and Chile opted for caution and Brazil lowered its interest rates, while a high-tension meeting awaits Colombia.
The bet of the financial market in the United States at the end of 2025 was that this year the Federal Reserve (Fed) was going to make credit cheaper on at least one more occasion, after having done so three consecutive times in September, October and December.
The conditions seemed to be given - with inflation heading towards the considered optimal level of 2% per year. However, four months and a war later, that hope was practically dashed.
In a decision seen as the closest in more than three decades, the Fed on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged in a range of between 3.5% and 3.75%, and signaled growing concern about inflation.
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Of a total of 12 votes, four were opposed: three officials no longer believe that the US central bank should show a downward trend in borrowing costs and one more spoke in favor of a cut of a quarter of a percentage point in rates.
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"Inflation is high, partly reflecting the recent rise in global energy prices," the institution said in its monetary policy statement, a change from its previous statement in which it said inflation was only "somewhat" high.
The war diverted the plans of many
The United States is not the only central bank that keeps one eye on its local economy and another on the Middle East.
The Brazilian monetary authority reduced its base interest rate by 0.25 percentage points this Wednesday, from 14.75% to 14.5% annually, its second decrease in almost two years. But he acknowledged that among the risk factors is uncertainty about the duration of the conflict, which directly impacts the global supply chain and raw material prices.
The Central Bank of Chile, for its part, had already resolved on Tuesday, April 28, to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.5% and warned that short-term inflation projections have "increased" in an international context marked by the uncertainty derived from this conflict.
The development of the war, the central bank noted, "has been more adverse" than that considered in the central scenario of the March Monetary Policy Report, "raising the probability of more negative results for inflation and global activity."
Read alsoThe energy giants that are getting richer from the crisis in the Middle East
And the Bank of the Republic of Colombia will meet this Thursday to evaluate interest rates, in a routine meeting that on this occasion takes place in the midst of a sharp confrontation with President Gustavo Petro, who is pressing for a cut in the base rate, with his counterpart arguing that it is not advisable to do so in the midst of an inflationary rebound.
With Reuters and EFE
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