Paris (France) (AFP) – The year 2026 will probably be the second warmest ever recorded in the world, the European Copernicus observatory estimated this Friday, after a global monthly record in October, under the combined effect of the natural phenomenon El Niño and warming of human origin.
First modification: 06/11/2026 - 12:17
"2026 will most likely be the second warmest year on record, and there is a 20% chance that it will equal or exceed 2024, currently the warmest year on record," Copernicus said in its monthly newsletter.
In addition, it is considered "almost certain that the year 2026 will exceed the threshold of 1.5 °C with respect to pre-industrial average levels, making it the second calendar year to exceed that limit, after 2024," Copernicus said in its statement.
This scenario does not, however, mean that the key objective of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which establishes the ambition of limiting global warming to 1.5ºC by 2100, will be definitively breached.
For this limit to be considered officially exceeded, it is necessary that the exceedance last much longer.
In any case, scientists agree that exceeding this threshold, at least temporarily, seems inevitable and could be effective between now and 2030.
Copernicus indicated on the other hand that October 2026 was globally the warmest October ever recorded on the planet, with an average air temperature 1.75 °C higher than that of pre-industrial times.
"It is the third consecutive month in which the 1.5° C threshold has been exceeded," according to the European device.
Ocean and sea surface temperatures also reached record levels for the month of October.
Excluding the polar regions, the average sea surface temperature reached 20.95 °C, a record for the month of October.
In the tropical Pacific, whose warming is at the origin of the natural El Niño phenomenon, the sea surface temperature anomaly reached "a historical maximum of 3.21 °C, above the peaks recorded in previous El Niño episodes of very strong intensity," adds Copernicus.
© 2026 AFP
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