Paris (France) (AFP) – An already devastating drought in South America and torrential rains in India and Nepal: the effects of El Niño continue, threatening rice and coffee crops to such an extent that the World Bank expects food prices to rise by 18% next year.

First modification: 03/11/2026 - 03:13

This natural climate phenomenon occurs every two to seven years in the equatorial Pacific. The warming of surface waters in that area alters the entire climate and winds over that ocean.

In a domino effect, it also impacts precipitation and temperatures across the planet, aggravating droughts, floods and other extreme weather events, with already visible consequences for populations.

Bolivia in "state of emergency"

In Bolivia, the drought affects just over 78,000 families in six of its nine departments. It has also caused the loss of more than 75,000 heads of cattle, according to the latest report from the Vice Ministry of Civil Defense, published this week.

President Rodrigo Paz announced Saturday that he had declared a state of emergency to address the intense droughts and related floods associated with the "superniño."

This measure will allow more economic resources and rescue units to be deployed in critical points.

"We have done enormous work to preserve the environment and ensure that the effect for this year of the superchild is as minimal as possible," Paz said in a message to the nation.

In neighboring countries like Peru, El Niño has raised temperatures and favored forest fires, which have already claimed the lives of at least 12 people. It has also spread dengue, a tropical disease that caused another 81 deaths in 2026.

In Chile, it has caused the wettest October ever recorded in Santiago, the capital.

India "in the water"

Cyclone Arnab, accompanied by strong winds and torrential rain, hit southeastern India on Wednesday morning and devastated the coasts, causing three deaths and causing nearly 100,000 evacuations.

"Our houses are flooded and we had to stay in the water," said Rajeshwari, 65, who only gave her name after being evacuated to a shelter near Kakinada, in the state of Andhra Pradesh.

Cyclones are a recurring threat in the Bay of Bengal and the northern Indian Ocean. But the storm season is particularly intense this year, exacerbated by El Niño.

"It may play an important role in amplifying the effects of Cyclone Arnab. Sea temperatures are already above normal. A warmer atmosphere contains more moisture (...) and favors more intense rainfall," explained Akshay Deoras, a researcher at the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Reading, in the United Kingdom.

The cyclone then moved towards Nepal, causing significant snowfall in the high Himalayan regions and heavy rains until Saturday.

El Niño in figures

Food prices are expected to increase by 18% between 2025 and 2027, according to the World Bank, which attributes this behavior both to supply difficulties due to wars in the world and to the expected effects of El Niño.

484,500: that is the number of deaths that this episode of the climate phenomenon has already caused since June, according to figures from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.

The balance is only provisional, since the organization predicts that there could be around 373,000 additional deaths in the next six months.

Coffee, cocoa, rice, wheat: which crops are most vulnerable to El Niño?

There is no single answer, it will depend on each region.

But "from the point of view of food security, the crops that receive the most attention are those that constitute basic foods, sources of most of the calories consumed by the populations of vulnerable countries," Máximo Torero, chief economist of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), responded to AFP.

Thus, El Niño especially affects rice in regions where it reduces rainfall, especially in Asia, where it can limit planting and yields.

Corn and beans, essential in Mexico, Central America and southern Africa, are also at greater risk of drought.

Even sorghum and millet, very important in East Africa and yet more resistant to lack of water, can suffer from a prolonged rainfall deficit, the FAO said, adding that wheat can also be impacted by irregular rainfall.

In addition to affecting availability and costs at the local level, these situations can cause a shock to the world prices of the main cereals—wheat, rice, corn...— and skyrocket the bills of countries that depend on imports.

But the organization also closely monitors crops destined for export, particularly cocoa and coffee, which are sensitive to both excess and lack of rain, since the first situation favors diseases and the second affects quality and volume.

A bad year can ultimately affect the income of local farmers and the foreign exchange earnings of producing countries, while driving up global prices.

© 2026 AFP

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