Bangkok (Thailand) (AFP) - An exceptionally strong El Niño is causing climate disruptions around the world, stoking fears about food security and increasing the chances that 2026 will be the second warmest year on record, experts say.

First modification: 10/11/2026 - 03:09

Below are the main manifestations of this climatic phenomenon this week:

Heat record

The world is on track for 2026 to be the second warmest year on record as El Niño is accelerating human-caused global warming, the European Union's climate observatory reported Friday.

"October has continued the trend of notable global warming, with record-breaking global and ocean surface temperatures," said Samantha Burgess, strategic climate director at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates the Copernicus observatory.

"An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding even more heat to a climate already warmed by human activities," he noted.

El Niño, the warming phase of a natural climate cycle, temporarily raises temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, triggering meteorological changes that can increase the risk of droughts and floods across the planet and exacerbate human-caused global warming.

Experts say it could contribute to 2027 being the hottest year on record.

Emergency in Peru

More than 70% of Peru's municipalities were declared in emergency due to the "imminent danger" posed by floods related to El Niño, authorities reported on Tuesday.

This measure came after Bolivia's decision to announce a similar measure in its territory due to the effects of this climate phenomenon.

El Niño cycles can bring heavy rain to Latin America, and downpours have already flooded parts of the northern regions of Tumbes and Piura in northern Peru.

Authorities warned that more than nine million people, almost a third of the country's population, were at high risk of flooding and landslides.

Increase in electricity demand in Sri Lanka

In some parts of Asia, El Niño-related drought has raised the potential for hydropower shortages due to a hotter, drier climate.

But for now, Sri Lanka's state electricity company has withdrawn a price increase proposal, citing El Niño-related heavy rains that have improved storage levels in hydroelectric reservoirs.

However, the country is expected to face severe drought conditions in the first half of 2027, which authorities say would force it to resort to more expensive and polluting thermal generation.

Philippines Response Fund

The Philippines announced this week that it has committed more than $980 million to an "El Niño response plan" that will "mitigate the impact of climate risk on agriculture."

Agricultural crops represent around 8% of the Philippine gross domestic product and employ one in four inhabitants of the Asian country, according to government figures.

The Department of Agriculture reported that unmilled rice production fell 18% in the three months to September due to the impacts of El Niño and the war in Iran, which has sent fuel and fertilizer prices soaring.

In November, the country expects "below normal or much below normal rainfall," the state weather service reported Wednesday.

El Niño in figures

Three: The number of times a polar vortex disturbance has occurred in November since records began in the 1950s. Scientists indicated this week that they were observing an unprecedented early disturbance that increases the risk of cold snaps and is likely related to El Niño.

20: The percentage chance that 2026 will equal or surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded on the planet, according to the Copernicus observatory.

33: The number of countries that broke heat records in October, according to an AFP analysis based on Copernicus data.

Increases in food prices

El Niño alters global weather patterns, causing heavy rains in some regions and droughts in others. Both phenomena can affect harvests and the production of crops intended for animal feed.

Floods can be particularly devastating, destroying stored food and damaging the infrastructure and transportation needed to get products to market.

All of these elements can drive up prices, and the impacts "can manifest long before harvests are completed," said Máximo Torero, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

"Markets react to expectations of future shortages and uncertainty itself can generate volatility," he told AFP.

The effects of this year's El Niño are compounded by price shocks caused by the conflict in Iran.

"For vulnerable households, even moderate increases in food prices can have enormous consequences," Torero said.

These can include a reduction in food consumption, lower quality diets and, "ultimately, an increase in food insecurity and malnutrition," it said.

In September, FAO reported that it had received only a fifth of the $202 million it requested to prepare for the El Niño-related food crisis in 22 high-risk countries.

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© 2026 AFP

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