The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced that it will leave OPEC and the expanded OPEC+ alliance as of May 1, 2026 in the interest of increasing its domestic production and redefining its long-term energy strategy. With the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the framework for the crisis, the decision deals a severe blow to the oil export alliance led by Saudi Arabia, following complaints from Abu Dhabi to its regional partners for not doing enough to stop Tehran.

First modification: 04/28/2026 - 20:29 Last modification: 04/30/2026 - 04:28

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As of May 1, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+, an expanded version with a dozen more members, including Russia, will have to do without one of their largest oil producers, in the midst of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East, according to the Emirati Executive through the state news agency WAM.

The decision is a hard blow for OPEC, which has existed since 1960, and for Saudi Arabia, its leader, in the midst of an energy crisis generated by the war against Iran that is destabilizing the world economy, due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime passage through which approximately 20% of the oil consumed by the planet passed through before this conflict. Iran has blocked it, said it has mined it and even suggested tolls to travel through it.

The convergence of these factors threatens to further weaken the influence of Gulf countries on global crude oil supply and prices, two variables that OPEC has historically controlled.

The Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei, explained to Reuters that his government did not consult other countries or Saudi Arabia before deciding to leave, after having been part of the organization for 59 years.

"This is a political decision, made after a thorough analysis of current and future policies related to the level of production," he declared.

In that sense, he expressed confidence in gaining greater autonomy by not having to comply with obligations within the group, with crude oil production quotas that Abu Dhabi has opposed in recent years as it is considered too low. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has defended prolonged production cuts with the argument of supporting prices.

The Emirati government noted that "fundamental trends indicate continued growth in global energy demand in the medium and long term," a projection that it wants to capitalize on by bringing its crude oil production closer to its maximum potential.

"This decision reflects the UAE's long-term strategic and economic vision, as well as its evolution in the energy profile," said the WAM agency, before adding that the country "will continue to act responsibly, introducing additional production to the market in a gradual and measured manner, in line with demand and market conditions."

According to OPEC figures, the UAE produced approximately 3.4 million barrels of crude oil per day before the start of the conflict on February 28, and has experienced a reduction in its production of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, which represents a significant drop in the volume produced since the start of the war.

The state oil company ADNOC aims to increase pumping capacity to about 5 million barrels per day in 2027. To this end, the board of directors, chaired by the head of the Emirati state, approved an investment plan for 150 billion dollars between 2023 and 2027.

A hypothetical increase in Emirati production could help balance the world's crude oil supply, decimated by the conflict in the Middle East, and, consequently, regulate oil prices. However, that would be a medium-term effect, as the current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will hamper any attempt to accelerate exports from the UAE.

Political overtones

The United Arab Emirates has had increasingly tense relations with Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, over political and economic issues in the Middle East, a friction aggravated by military attacks on both from Iran, also an OPEC member, in response to the US-Israeli offensive.

In this context, the UAE has reproached the other Arab Gulf States for, in its opinion, not having done enough to protect them from numerous Iranian aggressions.

"The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have supported each other on the logistical level, but on the political and military levels, I think their position has been the weakest in their entire history," diplomatic advisor to the presidency of the United Arab Emirates, Anwar Gargash, declared on Monday during a session of the Gulf Influencers Forum.

Disagreements between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also materialized in Yemen, where the two countries joined forces in 2015 to fight the Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

However, the alliance dissolved in late December 2025, when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment destined for Yemeni separatists supported by the United Arab Emirates.

As a result of the breakup, Saudi television networks based in Dubai, the economic center of the UAE, have left the kingdom in recent months.

Read alsoIslamic countries support Saudi Arabia in the midst of the crisis with the Emirates over Yemen

At the same time, the withdrawal of the UAE from the oil alliance to which it has belonged since 1967 is being interpreted as a victory for US President Donald Trump, a fierce critic of OPEC. The Republican went so far as to accuse the organization of "stealing from the rest of the world" by inflating oil prices during a speech at the United Nations in 2018.

Trump has also linked US military support to Gulf countries to oil prices, saying that while the US defends OPEC members, they "take advantage of it by imposing high oil prices."

The United Arab Emirates has worked to strengthen its relations with the United States and Israel in recent years, a process that accelerated with the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, through which Abu Dhabi became the third Arab country to normalize diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv. This approach has become even more relevant after the attacks by Iran, which have led the Emirates to align more openly with the Western bloc.

Bad streak for OPEC

These are not good days for the oil-exporting countries of the Persian Gulf due to the difficulties in transporting their production through the Strait of Hormuz, the sea route strangled by Iran through which a fifth of the world's quota of crude oil and natural gas passes.

OPEC production – dependent on Middle East crude – was reduced by almost 8 million barrels per day in March, 27.5% less than what was extracted in February, before the conflict.

In this scenario, OPEC will have to do without one of its most relevant members: the Emirates, the third largest producer of crude oil in the Persian Gulf, according to the Energy Institute, exceeds 4 million barrels per day, just 600,000 below Iran. The details of his exit process remain few, and it is unknown if there was any type of prior negotiation between the parties to manage the breakup.

Article 8 of the OPEC Treaty states that "no member of the Organization may withdraw from membership without notifying the Conference of its intention. Such notification shall take effect at the beginning of the next calendar year following the date on which it is received by the Conference, provided that the member has at that time fulfilled all financial obligations arising from its membership."

Under that premise, the departure of the UAE could only materialize until the beginning of 2027, accounts that do not align with the Emirati pronouncement.

When Qatar communicated its decision to leave OPEC in December 2018, it did so in a letter addressed to the Secretary General in which it invoked Article 8 of the Statute, with effect from January 1 of the following year.

The amputation of OPEC announced by the UAE shows that even Middle East allies, direct victims of the war with Iran, can prioritize their national agenda over the cohesion of the group, which weakens the organization's ability to present itself as a reliable bloc in the face of the United States and large Asian importers.

With information from Reuters, AP and local media.

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