Photo credit, Getty
Joseph Kabila was commander of the rebel alliance that brought his father to power in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1997, later succeeded him as president, and today, at 55, is a rebel leader again.
The height of irony is that the man he swore to overthrow is the very man to whom he handed over power after 18 years at the head of the country, and with whom he formed a coalition government after his resignation. One of the rebel groups he fought as president is now part of his new alliance.
His career reflects the changing nature of politics in the DRC, where alliances are fleeting and the use of force a constant threat.
When Kabila was named leader of the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN) earlier this month, it confirmed what many Congolese had long believed: that the former president was working with the M23 rebels, who last year took control of much of eastern DRC, including the region's main cities, Goma and Bukavu.
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Nonetheless, the confirmation sent shockwaves through the Democratic Republic of Congo – a vast country two-thirds the size of Western Europe, with enormous deposits of gold, diamonds and, most importantly, minerals used to make everything from cell phones to batteries for electric vehicles.
For Kabila, this alliance represents a possible way to regain the power he had lost.
For the M23 rebels, his involvement brings the experience and networks of a former head of state to a movement whose military advances have not yet translated into broad national legitimacy.
But it is far from certain that they can achieve their stated goal of removing President Félix Tshisekedi.
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Political analyst Henry-Pacifique Mayala told the BBC that Kabila had few options left to regain political influence.
“He actually had no other choice,” he said.
Sentenced to death in absentia for treason and targeted by US sanctions because of his alleged support for the M23, Kabila could have sought guarantees that this partnership could serve his interests, Mayala suggested.
"I'm not sure he's taking this big leap into the void without having received considerable assurances," Mayala said, adding that the M23's military strength could give Kabila greater leverage in possible future negotiations with the Congolese government.
Kabila's involvement also raises questions about whether the conflict could spread beyond the east of the country.
The M23's territorial gains have been concentrated in the country's eastern provinces, some 1,500 km from the capital, Kinshasa.
Kabila's political networks may give the rebellion greater reach, but that does not necessarily mean it has the capacity to expand its military campaign across the entire country.
And the extent of Kabila's national influence remains unclear.
During his mandate, after his appointment following the mysterious assassination of his father Laurent in 2001, he was often perceived as a foreigner in Kinshasa. He felt much more comfortable in Swahili, the common language of eastern DRC and East Africa, than in Lingala, the language spoken in Kinshasa.
His father's rebel group actually crossed the country on foot to Kinshasa, also from the east, over a period of seven months, before finally seizing power in May 1996 and deposing longtime leader Mobutu Sese Seko, who had ruled the country as his own personal property for more than 30 years.
There is nothing to suggest that Joseph Kabila's FRN would attempt to repeat this feat, but earlier this week he compared Tshisekedi to Mobutu.
“You have a tyrant who wants to impose and dictate what he thinks is right and not necessarily follow the constitution, which is the supreme law of the land,” he told Conspiracy Trackers Great Lakes (CTGL), a pro-M23 research group.
Photo credit, AFP via Getty Images
Kabila accused the government of using the death penalty, ending the moratorium established under his own presidency, to intimidate civilians, politicians and members of the army, as well as himself.
“It’s a personal matter,” he said.
He presented his clash with Tshisekedi as a fight against authoritarianism, invoking article 64 of the constitution, which calls on citizens to resist anyone who seizes power or exercises it in violation of constitutional provisions.
Tshisekedi is rumored to be considering amending the constitution so he can run for a third term, with the coalition of opposition parties C64, which takes its name from that same section of the constitution, campaigning against such a move.
But, in a sign that he may not succeed, the C64 coalition refused this week to support Kabila's rebellion, asserting that the multiple security crises facing Congo cannot be resolved by military force alone. She announced her intention to engage in direct talks with Tshisekedi and Kabila in order to achieve what she described as "a true inclusive national dialogue".
Richard Moncrieff, a Great Lakes analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, said President Tshisekedi retained substantial advantages.
"Tshisekedi has significant American support. He has a lot of money. And he generally controls the political system and, from what we can see, the military system," Moncrieff said.
In his first public reaction to Kabila's appointment as head of the FRN, Tshisekedi was clear: "In my opinion, it is simply proof that he never loved this country, and even less its inhabitants," he declared last week.
Yet it is widely believed that Kabila contributed to Tshisekedi succeeding him, rather than Martin Fayulu, who was the real winner of the 2018 elections, according to results disclosed by the Catholic Church, which had observers across the country.
Indeed, the former head of the electoral commission who announced Tshisekedi the winner, Corneille Nangaa, said so.
Having become one of Kabila's deputies within the FRN, he affirmed that Kabila and Tshisekedi had reached a political agreement even before the announcement of the final election results.
“I can confirm that I participated in the drafting of the agreement,” Nangaa stressed to France 24 in September 2023. “Tshisekedi is a liar. He knows that there was an agreement and he knows what it contained.”
Tshisekedi has always claimed to have won the election legitimately.
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After the disputed elections, Kabila and Tshisekedi reached a power-sharing agreement that allowed Kabila's coalition to retain control of parliament even after Tshisekedi took office in January 2019.
The deal collapsed in December 2020, when Tshisekedi set out to break Kabila's parliamentary dominance and build his own majority. The former allies became rivals, and Kabila went into voluntary exile in South Africa.
Since his exile, Kabila's criticism of Tshisekedi has become more virulent.
He returned to the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2025 and appeared in Goma, then under rebel control. In September of that year, a military court sentenced him to death in absentia on charges including treason and financing violence in eastern Congo.
At the time, he denied the accusations.
Another intriguing aspect of this announcement concerns Kabila's relationship with Rwandan President Paul Kagame.
At the start of his presidency, relations between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda were tense, with the latter criticizing its powerful neighbor for not doing enough to eradicate from its territory the Hutu militias involved in the Rwandan genocide of 1994. Their presence in what is now the DRC served as a pretext for Rwanda's repeated military interventions, since its support for Laurent Kabila's rebellion.
The M23 was formed in 2012, vowing to defend the rights of Tutsis and protect them against these militias, but also to fight the Congolese army, under the control of Joseph Kabila.
From the start, Rwanda was accused of supporting them. He has always denied these allegations, and continues to do so despite overwhelming evidence.
However, relations subsequently improved and Kabila's government worked with Rwanda against the Hutu militias.
Alex Adams, director of the Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said appointing Kabila as rebel leader could align his interests with those of the Rwandan president, even if their goals differ.
"Kabila wants to regain political influence at the national level, while Kagame is primarily concerned with the security of Rwanda and its strategic position in eastern Congo. This is an alliance of circumstance rather than a partnership based on deep trust," he said.
Political analyst Mayala said Kabila's involvement could help Rwanda counter accusations that it was interfering in Congo's internal affairs.
“He is a former president. It is finally a Congolese rebellion,” he declared.
Even before Kabila was named leader of the rebellion, fighting continued despite a peace deal overseen by Donald Trump the previous year.
This agreement included the signing by the United States of a contract authorizing the exploitation of the DRC's mineral wealth, and the United States since then appears to have sided with Tshisekedi by imposing sanctions on various Rwandan officials and organizations, accusing them of prolonging the violence.
Elections are scheduled for 2028, but Tshisekedi warned that fighting in the east of the country could delay the vote.
In this context, Kabila questioned whether elections alone could resolve the country's political crisis.
“Does Congo need elections or a revolution?” he asked, arguing that lasting peace required a fundamental overhaul of the country's executive and legislative power.
International security analyst Ovigwe Eguegu says Kabila is counting on military force to regain his political influence, while Tshisekedi appears to be trying to extend his mandate beyond what the constitution allows.
"It seems that the Congolese people are losing in all cases, because neither side presents a credible economic transformation plan for eastern Congo and for the country as a whole," Eguegu said.
Additional reporting by Emery Makumeno in Kinshasa.
We used AI to help translate this article, originally written in English. A BBC journalist checked the translation before publication. Learn more about how we use AI.
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