Berlin (AFP) – Saxony-Anhalt will be the center of attention on Sunday: the German far right should win the regional elections there and aims to lead a state, a first since 1945, further weakening Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Published on: 03/09/2026 - 10:53

In this regional state of the former GDR of 2.1 million inhabitants, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), an anti-migrant, Russophile party favorable to Donald Trump, is ahead of Mr. Merz's conservatives by almost 20 points: 40-43% against 22-24%, according to the latest polls.

"If the AfD wins the elections, criticism against Merz will intensify" among the conservatives, Wolfgang Schroeder, a political scientist at the University of Kassel, told AFP, excluding however an ousting of the chancellor, because there "is no credible successor".

For Friedrich Merz, who had promised to halve the AfD's score, it would be "a personal defeat", underlines Oliver Lembcke, professor at the Ruhr University in Bochum.

In recent days, the chancellor has continued to warn voters in this region of eastern Germany against “considerable (economic) damage”.

“I can't imagine that international investors would want to come and inaugurate a new factory alongside a minister-president of the AfD,” he recently said.

The far-right candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, 35, a social media star, plans in particular to toughen migration policy, remove compulsory education and denounce the treaties governing public broadcasting.

This ex-boss of a home fragrance company takes selfies and signing sessions like a rockstar at his electoral rallies.

It plays on the nostalgia for the GDR of its sympathizers who feel they are treated less well than their cousins ​​from the West or migrants.

Very rare absolute majority

“He manages to arouse a feeling of hope by promising that 'everything is possible',” asserts his main opponent, the conservative Sven Schulze, 47, who has been at the head of Saxony-Anhalt since March after having been Minister of the Economy.

This former MEP, an engineer by training, with a sober and without emphasis style, suffered from the unpopularity of Friedrich Merz's government during his campaign. He nevertheless insists on “speaking frankly to citizens”.

But even if the AfD wins the elections, it is not certain that it will rule Saxony-Anhalt. To be sure, he would need to obtain an absolute majority, which is very rare in Germany due to the proportional electoral system.

Thus, currently, of the 16 Länder, only Saarland, in the west, is led by a single party, the SPD (social democrats).

Obtaining an absolute majority by the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt depends on the number of parties which exceed the threshold of 5% of the vote, the sine qua non condition for entering the regional Parliament.

For example, the Liberals or the pro-Russian left party BSW could stay out of the regional assembly if they each obtained only 4%, which would mathematically lower the percentage of votes needed for the AfD to come to power: 46% instead of 50%.

Sanitary cord

So far, all parties have ruled out governing with the far right, with the exception of the BSW, whose members are divided on this issue.

And it is thanks to this cordon santé against the AfD that the conservative Sven Schulze could remain in power: by constituting a coalition with other parties represented in the regional Parliament.

He could follow the example of two neighboring regional states, those of Saxony and Thuringia, also located in the former GDR and conservative like him: form a minority government which depends on the support of the radical left, the Linke, with whom the conservatives have also excluded since 2018 from governing.

However, in the ranks of the conservatives, more and more voices are calling for a pragmatic approach towards the AfD, particularly in the regions: keeping it out of power after the Saxony-Anhalt election could cause tensions, already high, in Friedrich Merz's party.

As a result, unless the AfD obtains an absolute majority, forming a regional government is likely to prove very complicated in Saxony-Anhalt, against the backdrop of extremely polarized opinion and increasingly worried outsiders.

Several demonstrations from all sides are expected on the weekend of the election and police reinforcements have been planned.

“Even if the AfD does not come to power, the situation will become critical in Saxony-Anhalt,” fears Anke Prellwitz, a 50-year-old teacher at a high school in Saxony-Anhalt. “He will continue to divide society, while presenting himself as a victim,” she told AFP, predicting “difficult and problematic times”, regardless of the outcome of the vote.

© 2026 AFP

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