Chavismo's tight grip on power in Venezuela appears to have suffered no real dent with the recent capture of the president. His vice president Delcy Rodríguez has remained at the head of the Executive, with other strong actors such as his brother Jorge, Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino also in the equation. With the Trump Administration discarding María Corina Machado and leaving aside issues such as political prisoners or the elections, is a path still open for effective regime change in Venezuela?

First modification: 01/06/2026 - 21:40

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“We haven’t gotten there.” President Donald Trump's curt response to the situation of political prisoners in Venezuela is the perfect summary of what his government's position has been until now on progress towards regime change in the South American country.

The capture of President Nicolás Maduro and the apparent relief in the first person of Trump, as he himself has stated, does not necessarily seem to have opened a path towards a transition in a country in which, according to figures from human rights organizations, there are more than 800 people deprived of liberty for political reasons.

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Venezuela also does not seem to be any closer to an electoral process, much less to the recognition of the results of the 2024 election, in which Edmundo González Urrutia would have dominated with more than two-thirds of the votes, according to the scrutiny records compiled by the opposition, which were never validated by the Venezuelan electoral body.

The inauguration of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and the willingness of the White House to change the tone of its relationship with the factions of Chavismo that still remain in power mark a scenario that experts have described as “realpolitik”, a more pragmatic and transactional approach to the Venezuelan issue.

“There has been absolutely no change in real terms, except in the narratives of the demands of the United States towards those who have remained at the head of the national executive,” says Piero Trepiccione, political scientist and public opinion consultant.

For Trepiccione, the military action of the United States in Venezuela has represented “a hard blow to multilateralism, to the multilateral approach to national and international conflicts,” which has put the global balance in crisis.

"The first casualty has been multilateralism, because this action inaugurates a new era of hegemonic geopolitical elements whose consequences remain to be seen. We must ask ourselves how democracy remains in the middle, if it is the great sacrifice in favor of the interests of the great powers and political groups," points out the expert.

In this same sense, the State Department and the White House published a message on their social networks on Monday that encourages this narrative with a brief, but forceful: “This is OUR hemisphere”, in relation to the Latin American region where the United States seeks to reimpose its preeminence and expel its geopolitical rivals such as China or Russia, as indicated in the new National Security Strategy dictated from Washington.

Understanding the characters

For María Corina Roldán, political strategist and executive director of the consulting firm Elevation Group, understanding the scenario that arises from now on in Venezuela starts from first understanding the profiles of those involved.

“Trump is not a politician,” warns Roldán. “He is a businessman, that person who genuinely does not care too much about democratic foundations or social well-being, but about the benefits he can obtain personally.”

These benefits can be verified in material terms, thanks to that “total access” that Delcy Rodríguez has demanded regarding Venezuelan oil, but also as political revenue in a year that has been one of economic failures, despite his narrative of the trillions of dollars of investment attracted to the United States. Likewise, it could use the economic narrative in view of the November 2026 midterm elections, in which the American Republicans are playing for the legislative majorities in the House and Senate.

Furthermore, with his name dangerously involved in the files of sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein, Trump needs to show a positive result in his management of the Venezuelan issue, and Rodríguez could be the interlocutor he needs for this.

"She has been useful to the regime by bringing stability in international relations. She is a technocrat and this is recognized from the diplomatic corps to the business associations. Several media outlets tried to sell her as a moderate for a possible transition in Venezuela and at the same time positions of trust began to be filled with those loyal to her," says Roldán.

"Both profiles are connected at some point: for Trump, it is much easier to negotiate his interests with Delcy Rodríguez than with any other profile. He has found a certain fascination in her, who managed to take oil production from 400,000 barrels a day with Tareck El Aissami to more than one million. That made her a functional leadership for his interests," he continues.

In this transactional context, democratization goes from being a republican value to becoming the backdrop for the oil investments that Trump tries to promote in Venezuela.

“All companies are going to seek social, economic and political stability to be able to operate, and that involves democratization, lightening the authoritarian mood and putting an end to crazy economic decisions,” highlights Roldán.

Political scientist Betzabeth Jaramillo agrees with her: "These objectives of 'recovering what was stolen' and 'having access' to oil that Trump has outlined do not exclude democratization. An authoritarian regime does not provide guarantees for investment. Eventually, we will have a democratic process."

For Jaramillo, the current state of affairs already constitutes a change in itself, "although it may not seem like it, because Chavismo always maintained that it would never bow down to the United States, and that thesis is difficult to sustain when there is already cooperation underway."

This cooperation marks a delicate existential threat for the Rodríguez brothers and for Chavismo, according to the assessment of consultant Carmen Beatriz Fernández, an expert in public communication.

“Delcy Rodríguez could take steps towards a transition, but she is in a much more fragile position than Nicolás Maduro: she has to walk a very delicate line between satisfying Trump's requests and not looking bad to the official bases, even more so taking into account that shadow of suspicion that she has over herself, that shadow of betrayal that has loomed,” Fernández appreciates.

Machado out of the equation?

Donald Trump left no room for speculation when he ruled out the figure of the Nobel Peace Prize winner, María Corina Machado, from any immediate transition scenario, a position that analysts review beyond the evident lack of sympathy towards the Venezuelan leader.

"The Venezuelan institutional framework at the military and political level is completely aligned with the ruling party and has profound differences with the narrative of María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. In practice, giving them participation at this time would be politically unviable," estimates Piero Trepiccione.

Carmen Beatriz Fernández and María Corina Roldán agree, however, that the scenario could change at any time.

“On January 3, (French President Emmanuel) Macron made a publication in favor of Edmundo González, and Trump, in one of those traits of inconsistency to which we are accustomed, shared that publication,” recalled Fernández, for whom the apparent exclusion of Machado is an example of the gray areas that persist in the US strategy.

“That impeccable military action that Trump boasts so much about from the point of view of drawing up the political roadmap is absolutely ambiguous,” he estimates.

Roldán, for his part, does not rule out a countermarch that puts Machado back on the board: "We have seen the way in which Trump changes his mind. If Delcy fails him, if Chavismo fails him, which is highly feasible, he will look for another ally to achieve his interests, and that is where the opposition led by María Corina Machado can come in."

This apparent exclusion is not necessarily inconvenient for the Nobel Peace Prize winner, according to Fernández: "In the best of cases, after the supervised transition we could go to an election in which Machado will participate as the main candidate, not aspiring to be vice president. And if it goes wrong, the costs will fall above all on Trump."

Does Chavismo have a future?

A process of re-institutionalization inevitably raises the question about the chances of survival of the Chavismo factions.

After 26 years of hegemonic control that led to the diaspora of more than eight million people and with a process in the International Criminal Court for the alleged commission of crimes against humanity, could Chavismo once again have an option that is not sustained by force?

Experts believe so, but first it will be necessary to “recover a minimum of trust between the actors, between internal political differences and external geopolitical differences,” as Piero Trepiccione indicates.

This condition, according to the expert, is unavoidable for future electoral processes, so that the results can be accepted by everyone and that acceptance allows a “minimum of institutionality that allows a margin of governability.”

"In Venezuela the issue of inclusive governance is the big issue, Chavismo may be weakened at the level of preferences, but it remains a force of territorial control. Now comes a chapter of reconstruction of that minimum trust. They are trying to evolve towards a variable sum game, in which political factors can win or lose without that meaning its end," explains Trepiccione.

“All political actors need participation in a transition process to represent the interests of all in a re-institutionalization scenario,” says Roldán.

Betzabeth Jaramillo sees a possibility of survival beyond the current need for governability that Delcy Rodríguez guarantees.

"Chavismo in the long term could be maintained if it manages to reconfigure itself and change its model. That is something that perhaps we are already seeing. Delcy Rodríguez's position towards the United States has undergone a radical change. At the same time, trying to look at the population that he has violated for years is also a type of change," Jaramillo points out.

For Carmen Beatriz Fernández, Delcy Rodríguez could hold the key to that survival: "There are two models of political change: that of a clean slate and that in which an actor in the regime carries out a 'perestroika', reforms from within and inwards, like what just happened in Bolivia with (former president Luis) Arce. In this scheme of supervised transition, the bridge is Delcy Rodríguez."

Trump referred this January 6 to a “torture chamber in the center of Caracas that they are closing now”, in reference to the Helicoide “penitentiary” center, in what seems to suggest a change of position on political prisoners.

The truth is that the element of force on the board has a firm enough hand to enable an opening to a regime change in Venezuela, beyond the rhetoric of promoting economic recovery.

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