Photo credit, Reuters
As the results continue to trickle in, it appears for now that long-time Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did better than expected, with his Likud party coming out on top.
Its current bloc of ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties appears to be within a whisker of a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat parliament. However, analysts stress that this result is subject to change, as early tallies were skewed toward regions known for strong support for the right.
A dramatic stalemate was widely predicted as Israelis went to the polls in droves – with turnout topping 77%.
In Israel's fragmented political system, indications are that Netanyahu's main rival, former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, will struggle to secure a parliamentary majority without the support of parties led by Israel's Arab minority. According to the partial results, these parties equaled, or even exceeded, their previous record of seats.
During the election campaign, most Jewish opposition parties pledged not to collaborate with Arab-majority lists, citing a lack of shared values.
However, Israel's Arab-led parties could play a decisive role if others were willing to ally with them. In these elections, Israeli Arabs – who often consider themselves Palestinian citizens of Israel and make up a fifth of the population – appeared to mobilize in unprecedented numbers.
Many saw the election as crucial to defeating the most right-wing government in Israel's history, accusing it of stoking racism and hatred.
A major caveat to all current analyzes is that the high number of mail-in ballots yet to be counted – mostly representing the votes of Israeli soldiers – means that we do not expect to have a clear idea of the final results for a day or two.
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During the night, Netanyahu and Eisenkot addressed their supporters, promising to form the next government.
“The right-wing bloc has a clear and decisive majority among Zionist public opinion, the Jewish community and all those who support the State of Israel. This is an undeniable fact. A decisive majority,” the Prime Minister declared to his jubilant supporters, without however proclaiming victory.
“We must form a strong right-wing national government. This is what we have to do,” he added.
“The people have chosen change,” Eisenkot told his Yashar party after the release of exit polls, most of which were initially more favorable to the opposition. “The failed coalition has lost the trust of the people. Israelis voted against retaining Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister. »
“I will work with my partners to ensure that the people's decision results in a Zionist government: stable and beneficial for all Israeli citizens. And quickly, because this is what the current situation demands and because the country needs to be reunited. »
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Israeli society is deeply divided, as these and previous elections have highlighted. They served not only as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership – as he faces charges of corruption, charges he denies – but also as a vote on the kind of country Israel should be.
The prime minister and his current coalition partners have set the country on an uncompromising religious and nationalist path over the past four years. Mass protests took place against their proposed judicial reforms before the unprecedented attacks carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023, which triggered a series of armed conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
Many Israelis want to see their country more firmly anchored in liberal and secular values.
Surprisingly, the last four tumultuous years do not appear to have significantly changed voting behavior.
“Polls show that the relative weight of the two main camps, pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu, is roughly equal,” Professor Tamar Hermann, a pollster at the Israel Democracy Institute, told me just before the elections. “It was expected that after October 7, Netanyahu would be in free fall, even toppled, but that did not happen. »
By night, the main Israeli parties will have started intense political struggles to try to form a new coalition government.
“Each side will try to rally defectors, or establish a minority government, using all kinds of political maneuvers,” Yaakov Katz, a veteran Israeli journalist and author, described to me. “But it may fail, and it may take weeks or even months before we know whether anyone is actually capable of forming a government. »
Leaders of large parties generally try to seduce smaller parties by promising them ministerial positions, budgets or specific policies.
It is now crucial to see whether members of the main opposition bloc, the "change bloc", are prepared to break a taboo by seeking a political agreement with Arab parties.
During the election campaign, one of the bloc's leaders, right-wing politician Avigdor Lieberman, went so far as to declare that he would refuse to sit in a minority government dependent on their support. It was a sign of growing distrust and hostility toward Arab citizens since the October 7 attack.
During my recent meeting with Mansour Abbas, head of Ra'am – the smaller of the two Arab lists – he told me that after being part of the disparate coalition that temporarily toppled Netanyahu between 2021 and 2022, he wanted to join the next government. He believed that potential partners would be more inclined to an alliance after the elections.
“These are well-known partisan considerations. All Israeli politicians give one speech before the elections and a completely different one after,” he said. “We've been through this before, and it doesn't worry us. »
At the same time, Netanyahu and his allies have already launched an intense campaign to delegitimize Arab parties, presenting their fellow citizens as a domestic threat.
So what are the next steps?
After the final results are presented to Israeli President Isaac Herzog, whose role is essentially ceremonial, next week, he will consult all elected party leaders and ask the candidate who seems most likely to form a coalition to do so.
If that candidate is unable to muster a majority within six weeks or less, others may be allowed to try.
If, after all these negotiations, no one is able to form a government coalition, new elections will be held in the following months, and the whole process will be repeated.
In the meantime, Netanyahu's government remains in place in an interim capacity, but without the power to implement major policy changes.
We used AI to help translate this article, originally written in English. A BBC journalist checked the translation before publication. Learn more about how we use AI.
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