Photo credit, (Photo by Jospin Mwisha / AFP via Getty Images)
The launch of a new political-military coalition replacing the AFC-M23 alliance which is fighting Congolese government forces in the east of the country surprised many observers of the Congolese political scene.
Called Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), this new alliance is led by former President Joseph Kabila, sentenced to death in absentia by a military court at the end of September 2025.
By taking the lead in this rebellion which controls the east of the DRC, the maneuvers of Kabila and his allies are dissected by political analysts who believe that the creation of the FRN ''shuffles the cards on the military, political and diplomatic level in the DRC''.
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What we know about the creation of the FRN
Photo credit, (Photo by Jospin Mwisha / AFP via Getty Images)
It was during a press conference held in the very residence of the former president, Joseph Kabila in Goma, this city in eastern DRC controlled by the M23 rebel movement, that the creation of the FRN, Front for the Refoundation of the Nation, was announced.
Around the table, the main leaders of this new political-military movement which now replaces the AFC-M23 which has been fighting government forces in this part of the DRC for several years.
"A political-military movement Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN) is created", and "becomes president: Joseph Kabila", declared Claude Ibalanky, advisor to the FRN, during the joint press conference held in the residence of the former president.
Now placed at the head of this rebel movement, Joseph Kabila, former President of the Republic, will have as his deputies the rebel leaders Corneille Nangaa, Bertrand Bisimwa, Freddy Kaniki and Sultani Makenga.
A political-military alliance born in a tense political context
The birth of this political-military movement, which brings together the forces of Joseph Kabila and the AFC-M23, occurs in an uncertain political context in the DRC.
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For several months, the presidential majority has defended a constitutional revision project which has fueled speculation about a possible candidacy of Félix Tshisekedi for a third term. Aged 63, the Congolese president will in principle complete his second and final five-year term in 2028.
For the opposition, which has organized several demonstrations against this project, this constitutional revision constitutes a “political maneuver” intended to allow the head of state to remain in power, while the Congolese Constitution limits the presidency to two mandates.
On the military level, the AFC-M23 seized vast territories in eastern DRC during an offensive carried out last year.
For several months, the Congolese authorities have accused former President Joseph Kabila of supporting rebel groups which control part of the east of the country, or even of being their real leader.
Joseph Kabila appeared in Goma in 2025 and several of his former allies have since joined him in this part of Congolese territory controlled by the M23 rebellion.
Sentenced to death in absentia
Joseph Kabila came to power in the DRC in 2001, following the assassination of his father, Laurent-Désiré Kabila. He led the country until January 2019, when he handed over power to Félix Tshisekedi, then his political ally.
On September 30, 2025, a high-ranking military court sentenced him to death in absentia after finding him guilty of "conspiracy, treason, rape, war crimes and crimes against humanity."
He was also ordered to pay more than $30 billion in damages to the Congolese state as well as the provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu.
In its judgment, the high military court of Kinshasa considered that the former president, absent during his trial and not represented by a lawyer, had been “in intelligence with Rwanda”.
According to the court, Joseph Kabila is the real leader of the AFC-M23 rebel group.
Those around him described the trial as a “comedy”, without this stopping the military magistrates from ordering his immediate arrest.
What two Congolese analysts think
Photo credit, (Photo by Daniel Buuma/Getty Images)
According to Makangu Silas Mimile, geopolitics expert, the FRN alliance made up of several elements could give another dimension to the security crisis that the DRC has been experiencing for several years.
''The first dimension is the political dimension which would be a sort of legitimization to the challenge to the power of Kinshasa'' declares Dr Silas Makangu.
''This rebellion now risks having a legitimization because of the status of the one who is at the head of this alliance, in this case President Joseph Kabila'' and ''could give the challenge to the regime in place a national dimension in view of what Kabila was and what he is at the political level'' he specified.
At the military level, he says, ''there is a risk that there will be a rapprochement between Joseph Kabila's dormant networks within the army, with the AFC-M23'' believes the analyst.
''Remember that he was Chief of Staff for a few years, he was President of the Republic for 18 years. There certainly exists a Kabila network, that is to say people who were promoted, who were trained, who were appointed during his regime and who could unfortunately be loyal to him. And these dormant networks could be a nursery for the AFC-M23'' thinks Silas Makangu Mimile.
For his part, Christian Moleka, political analyst and national coordinator of the Dynamics of Political Scientists of the DRC (Dypol) believes that the alliance created (FRN) ''confirms the speeches made by the president (Tshisekedi) for almost two years, who declared that Kabila was the true leader of the AFC-M23''.
''Now that the masks have fallen, it reinforces the president's narrative, namely that it is always the man who was in charge and now he is taking on the fight,'' he said.
What to expect next
In the officially declared objectives, the FRN speaks of wanting to 'rebuild the nation, restore the functioning of the Republic and put an end to tyranny'.
Asked about these statements, Dr Silas Makangu invites us to read between the lines to understand the real objectives of this political-military movement.
''We can also read between the lines, that they would like to extend the political base of the opposition beyond the territory previously controlled by the AFC-M23, that is to say that it is possible, very probable I would say, that they resort to the conquest of new territories, new cities, even new provinces''.
The political analyst maintains that one of the ''unstated objectives that President Kabila, who has badly digested his exclusion and his death sentence, would like to seek to reappear on the political scene and play a preponderant role or even try to return to the supreme office''.
By taking the lead in this rebellion, former President Kabila wants to influence political and military life in the DRC.
While several provinces in the east of the country are now placed under the control of the FRN, should we fear a widespread resumption of fighting?
For Christian Ndombo Moleka, a resumption of fighting cannot be ruled out but a military offensive towards Kinshasa is ''unlikely at this stage of the balance of forces on the ground.
''We expect a resumption of fighting in South Kivu, towards Uvira and possibly an extension towards Katanga, this is the most likely scenario'' thinks the Congolese analyst.
''It would be an operation which would try to cut off the regime's safe, Katanga. If they managed to cut off the Katangese safe, it would be a strong lever of pressure on the power in Kinshasa.
As for a possible military offensive on Kinshasa, ''there is still reason to ask the question about the military capacity of the rebel movements and the feasibility of such an operation'' puts Christian Ndombo Moleka into perspective.
''To get to Kinshasa, we would need real diplomatic support from states in the region. Are the region's heads of state for or against Kabila leading a rebel movement? Whether it has the military capabilities, whether it has sufficient personnel, logistical means, and the strategy to achieve this end, time will tell.''
According to the two analysts, the fact that Kabila is highlighted in this movement gives grist to the mill of Kagame who declares that the crisis is essentially Congolese and that Rwanda has only been clumsily indexed and to build a narrative towards American sanctions.
However, the AFC-M23 is logistically dependent on support from Kigali.
''Things are not going to fundamentally change, it is the branding that has evolved, but the Rwandan influence on the M23 is not going to change with the FRN'' explains Christian Ndombo Moleka.
The FRN and the Doha process
Photo credit, (Photo by MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images)
The two Congolese analysts believe that a repositioning of political forces is underway, both within the framework of the political dialogue launched by the president and the various peace processes currently underway.
However, they wonder about the attitude that the FRN will adopt, without making a definitive decision.
“Will the FRN be a continuation of what the M23 signed in Doha, notably the ceasefire, or will it inaugurate a new dynamic calling into question all of the processes undertaken, at the risk of completely reshuffling the cards and reestablishing a balance of power? »
So many questions which, at this stage, remain unanswered in the current political context of the DRC.
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