Geneva (AFP) – The current episode of El Niño could be "the most powerful" observed since measurements of the climate phenomenon began four decades ago, the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Thursday.
Published on: 09/03/2026 - 12:45 Modified on: 09/03/2026 - 18:04
In a new update of its forecasts, the WMO announces that "El Niño has firmly established itself and will intensify to become a very strong phenomenon in the coming months, with significant repercussions on temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as the risks of floods, droughts and extreme heat".
The episode should “reach its peak towards the end of 2026”, warns the WMO, also indicating “an exceptionally high probability” of almost 100% that El Niño will continue until February 2027.
This episode “could be more powerful than anything we have observed since the beginning of our records, to the point of literally going beyond the limits of the graphs we have been using for four decades,” WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo warned the press in Geneva.
“We find ourselves in a high-risk zone where extreme weather phenomena are becoming the new norm,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a statement.
- Overheating equatorial Pacific -
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that returns every two to seven years.
Surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific warm from spring onwards, leading to major changes in global wind, pressure and precipitation patterns in the following months.
Sea surface temperatures in this area of the equatorial Pacific are already significantly above average and continue to rise.
Below the ocean surface, ocean temperatures were even in some areas more than 8°C higher than average in July and early August. This enormous reservoir of “very warm ocean waters will fuel the intensity of El Niño,” announced Ms. Saulo.
While each El Niño is different, the phenomenon has historically caused or intensified droughts and fire risks in certain regions of the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia and Australia, monsoon disruptions in India or torrential rains in eastern Africa.
Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, head of climate forecasts at WMO, indicated that some regions would be affected before, others during and still others after the peak expected later this year, specifying however that the intensity of this peak does not allow us to predict the severity of its consequences.
- “Race against time” -
Since 1950, seven episodes have reached the "very strong" level, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), the strongest having appeared in 1982-1983.
This phenomenon adds to climate change caused by human activities, boosting extreme weather events. Its effects vary regionally and seasonally and can be modified by other climatic factors, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
For the period September-November 2026, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas, as well as precipitation patterns consistent with a strong El Niño in the Pacific.
El Niño “has the potential to deliver a major blow to populations and economies around the world,” warned WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) also launched an appeal on Thursday for 110 million dollars (around 95 million euros) to protect 4.9 million people against the "potentially serious" effects of the new episode of El Niño.
These funds “would allow IOM and its partners to act before humanitarian needs worsen,” says the organization.
“A race against time is now being played out between the worsening risks and our determination to act for the climate and protect populations,” urged Mr. Guterres.
The year after El Niño, heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere, generally helping to increase global temperatures, leading many climate scientists to predict that 2027 will be the warmest on record.
The hottest year to date was 2024, after the last El Niño. “We should not be surprised if this record is broken,” Ms. Saulo said.
© 2026 AFP
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