Paris (France) (AFP) – Prices have not increased in France at such a rate for more than two years: according to provisional data from INSEE (National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) published on Wednesday, inflation reached 3% year-on-year in September, still fueled by the sharp increase in energy.

Published on: 09/30/2026 - 11:14 Modified on: 09/30/2026 - 2:38 p.m.

After an already marked increase of 2.4% year-on-year in August, consumer prices are expected to increase by 3% in September.

The last time inflation reached this level over one year in France was in February 2024 when the French economy was struggling to emerge from the inflationary spiral triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine two years earlier.

As during the previous inflationary shock, it is the rise in energy prices which is pushing the overall consumer price index upwards: after increasing by more than 16% in August, energy products saw their prices soar by more than 21% in September.

This spectacular rise in energy prices is itself the consequence of a factor external to France, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, where around 20% of the world's hydrocarbons transited before the outbreak of war between Iran and the United States in February.

All of Europe is also affected by inflation: over one year in September, it was close to 5% in Spain, reached 4.2% in Italy, and rose to 3.3% in Germany, at its highest level in three years, again boosted by energy prices.

In its economic forecasts published in mid-September, the Bank of France highlighted that the country should experience lower inflation than the rest of its European neighbors.

Provisional inflation for the euro zone in September is expected on Friday.

At the end of the chain, at the pump, fuels are at their highest: since January, the average price of diesel has increased by more than 50%, and that of SP95-E10, the best-selling fuel, by more than 30%, according to an AFP analysis based on the prices displayed Wednesday by service stations on a government site.

Energy and fresh products

On Wednesday, these two fuels were sold on average at 2.39 euros and 2.17 euros.

But energy prices are no longer the only thing driving inflation up. After a summer marked by several episodes of heatwaves and drought which severely affected agricultural production, the prices of fresh produce are skyrocketing: in September, they increased by almost 10% year-on-year, accelerating significantly compared to August, when the increase was already quite marked (+5.9%).

Energy inflation “is starting to spread to the rest of the economy but slowly and in proportions out of proportion to the inflationary shock of 2022”, notes economist Sylvain Bersinger, founder of the Bersingéco firm.

Overall food, which includes fresh products, saw its prices increase by 1.5% (compared to 1.1% in August). Another category of products whose price is increasing: tobacco, up 3.3% year-on-year in September, as in August.

The price of services is also increasing, by 2.2% in September (+1.9% in August). Only the prices of manufactured products are down slightly (-0.3%).

In its economic outlook published in mid-September, the Banque de France indicated that it expected to see inflation fall below 2% next year, to 1.9%, before 1.6% in 2028.

But these forecasts remain dependent on developments in the situation in the Middle East, the main source of uncertainty around the scenario adopted by the Bank of France, which is based on data finalized in mid-August.

Even if the government has put in place targeted aid for "heavy riders" in order to limit the impact of the increase in prices at the pump, the executive explains that it has limited room for maneuver due to public finances in the red.

These inflation figures are published the day after demonstrations which brought together 200,000 and 300,000 people in France at the call of public service unions with, at the top of the demands, more "purchasing power".

© 2026 AFP

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