Paris (France) (AFP) – The Paris Stock Exchange recovered a little on Friday thanks to the decline in oil, at the end of a week marked by the rise in bond rates and the gap with Germany, leading experts to raise the question of an intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Published on: 02/10/2026 - 20:22

The CAC 40 index ended with a gain of 0.79% to 7,897.19 points, the day after a fall of 1.62% which contributed to a weekly loss of more than 2%.

Like other financial markets, the Paris Stock Exchange was buoyed on Friday by the fall in oil prices.

Very frank at the start of the afternoon, while the markets anticipated the decision of the G7 leaders to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil within four months, the decline finally gradually subsided.

Around 7:45 p.m. (5:45 p.m. GMT), a barrel of Brent from the North Sea fell only 0.02% to $102.29 per barrel. The American WTI for its part showed a drop of 1.68% to 91.31 dollars.

As in New York or Germany, investors in Paris took advantage of this stock market respite to bet on the "growth stocks" of tech (the two semiconductor manufacturers STMicroelectroncics +6.54% to 50.34 euros and Soitec +7.66% to 170.70 euros excluding CAC 40).

However, "the environment remains dominated by the rise in bond risk premia" and "budgetary and political concerns in France continue to weigh on debt", summarizes John Plassard, head of investment strategy at Cité Gestion Private Bank.

France ends the week with a ten-year borrowing rate at almost 4.87% compared to 4.71% last Friday at the close.

Scrutinized by the markets as a sign of monetary coherence in the euro zone, the rate gap with Germany (3.46%) widened to more than 140 basis points (1.4 percentage points), the highest since 2012.

TIP in sight?

“The question of ECB intervention is increasingly being raised in the face of this beginning of fragmentation,” Natixis experts argue.

“The question is when the ECB should start considering using its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to buy back French bonds in order to smooth out rate differentials,” explains Neil Wilson of Saxo Markets.

The TPI was created in 2022, after tensions in the bond markets of southern Europe. It allows the ECB, under certain conditions, to buy bonds from a member state if financial tensions threaten the proper transmission of its monetary policy.

The situation in France is not likely to trigger the TPI, however, believes ING economist Carsten Brzeski, who recalls that the widening of the French and German "spreads" above all reflects market concerns regarding the state of public finances.

The rise in rates is global and multi-factorial: inflation, rise in energy, need for capital of indebted States, in competition on the debt market with the tech giants.

In this context, France is paying even more than other countries because of its public debt at 119% of its GDP and its political situation perceived as unstable (government without a parliamentary majority, weight of the opposition parties in the campaign which is beginning).

"If the global context plays a role, it does not explain everything. The shift in the spread includes a risk premium linked to the financial and political situation. Analysts quantify it", summarizes a source in the entourage of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

“Political uncertainty and disorder in the streets give the image of an unstable country,” adds this source, while high school students block establishments demanding more resources. “The short-term issue is therefore the budget: our ability to move it forward, then adopt it, without distorting it will be closely scrutinized.”

Presented on Thursday, the 2027 budget provides, to reduce the deficit to 5% in 2027, 43 billion euros in “recovery measures”.

© 2026 AFP

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