Antalya (Turkey) (AFP) – Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels fell exceptionally this year, due to the energy crisis unleashed by the Iran war and the continued expansion of renewable energy, according to benchmark research published this Tuesday.

First modification: 10/11/2026 - 11:21

The Global Carbon Budget report predicts that global carbon emissions from burning gas, oil and coal, the main drivers of climate change, will reduce by 0.4% in 2026.

In the case of oil, the drop in emissions is estimated at 1.9%.

The study interprets it as the "short-term response to the energy shock caused by the conflict in Iran", which resulted in a near paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, through which before the war a fifth of the oil and liquefied gas consumed worldwide transited.

The immediate consequence was a spike in prices in Europe and the United States, and a supply crisis with shortages included in Asia.

For its part, CO2 emissions derived from natural gas will decrease by 0.3% this year, but those from coal will increase by 0.6%.

The global data, published on the occasion of the COP31 in Antalya, marks a turnaround with respect to the average of the last ten years, which was an annual increase of 0.9% in these CO2 emissions.

If confirmed, it will be the first annual reduction since 2020, when the pandemic slowed down the economy of the entire planet.

"The decline in CO2 emissions from fossil sources is encouraging. But a reduction driven in part by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution," said Pierre Friedlingstein of the British University of Exeter, who led the study.

"The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies...further acceleration is needed for global emissions to peak and enter a sustained decline," Professor Friedlingstein added.

For the two largest emitters on the planet, China and the United States, the study predicts a reduction of 0.9% and 1.3% this year.

The 1.5 ºC objective, in danger

The report notes on a positive note that two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand is being met by greater use of solar and wind energy, and electric vehicles.

A trend that is "reducing emissions in dozens of countries and slowing the growth of emissions in many more", but that needs to go further to put a cap on global emissions, adds Glen Peters, researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

The study clarifies that, at the same time, emissions derived from the felling of trees (for logging or the conversion of forests into crop fields) will increase this year.

The remaining carbon budget, the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, is now 150 billion tonnes, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate.

The UN warned in September that in the coming years the threshold of 1.5 ºC of warming, which the 2015 Paris Agreement set as a goal, will most likely be exceeded.

Respect for this objective, beyond which the effects of climate change are devastating, is one of the workhorses of the Antalya COP.

"The success of this COP will depend on how we respond to the threat that is coming from exceeding" that threshold, indicated on Monday the so-called High Ambition Coalition, in a statement signed by the Environment Ministers of countries such as Guatemala, Panama, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and also Pacific island nations (Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Fiji).

© 2026 AFP

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