According to exit polls, the pro-Ukraine, pro-Europe party of Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs was on track to win the elections on Saturday, October 3 by an unexpectedly wide margin, even as projections of results for other parties suggested that the centrist government would have to form a new governing coalition.

First modification: 04/10/2026 - 01:57

Exit polls from Latvia's parliamentary elections, released on Saturday night, October 3, favor Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' party, suggesting the country will maintain its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course.

But populist parties also had a good night after an election campaign dominated by fears about neighboring Russia and the cost of living in their home countries.

Kulbergs' center-right United List party led the polls with 35.6%, according to exit polls published by the public media LSM.

"It's not the end yet, but it's higher than expected," Kulbergs told reporters after the announcement.

"That means people really want change," he added, referring to "economic growth" and "a future for Latvia's children." Kulbergs took over as prime minister last May.

But his coalition, which pre-election polls show will emerge weakened from these elections, is unlikely to survive in its current form.

One of the alliance partners, the Greens and Farmers Union, appears to have obtained just 3.7%, below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

That, coupled with the expected results of other parties in the coalition, suggests that Kulbergs will have to form a new governing coalition.

While exit polls are generally reliable, voters' reluctance to admit their support for more radical parties can mean that populist parties do better than expected.

"I think the biggest increase in the real results, compared to the exit polls, will be in the parties supported by the Russian-speaking electorate, which are the Sovereign Power and Latvia First," Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, told AFP.

Sigita Struberga, secretary general of the Latvian transatlantic association LATO, said it was too early to predict exactly what form any future coalition would take.

"We really need to wait to find out the actual percentage, which could be slightly different than what we see right now," he stated.

Populist gains

Security issues were the main theme during the campaign in Latvia, a member state of the European Union and NATO located on the eastern flank of both blocs.

But populist parties gained ground by focusing on domestic issues such as the cost of living in this, the least prosperous of the Baltic states.

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The Sovereign Power party, criticized by its detractors for its pro-Russian stance, came in fourth place with 10.8% of the votes, according to exit polls. He has opposed military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defense spending, emphasizing instead domestic economic problems.

Despite its progress, the party is unlikely to enter government as most major parties have ruled out working with it.

Another populist party, Latvia First, came second (11.3%) according to exit polls. Led by businessman Ainars Slesers, it could prove a more viable coalition partner.

According to exit polls, the pro-European social democratic party The Progressives, which advocates for greater social protection and continued support for Ukraine, finished third with 11.1%.

Geopolitics and economics

Security remains a central issue in the political debate four years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Latvia, a member of NATO and the European Union since 2004, considers Russia its main security threat and has significantly increased its defense spending in response.

Since Moscow's invasion of kyiv in 2022, it has dramatically increased its defense spending, now allocating almost 5% of its GDP to this purpose.

Most parties expected to enter parliament support both high military spending and continued aid to kyiv.

However, the rising cost of living, low wages, pressure on the healthcare system and long-term demographic decline were central themes in campaign debates.

Voting patterns among Latvia's large Russian-speaking minority are also changing.

While previously rallied around the Harmony party, which lost parliamentary representation in 2022, many voters are increasingly making decisions based on economic and social issues, rather than solely on identity politics.

"Since we are Europe's external border, we must have a strong economy, a strong border region, a strong border zone," Kulbergs said.

"That is the main task."

Preliminary and official results are expected to be known on Sunday, at which time attention will quickly turn to coalition formation negotiations, which could prove lengthy and complex.

With AFP

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