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The Chinese government says that for the first time, Chinese households have more elderly people to support than children.
Official data released last week showed that China's old-age dependency ratio - relative to the working-age population - rose to 23% last year, exceeding the child dependency ratio of 22% for the first time.
This data is closely watched because it may reflect the impact of China's continued shrinking labor force on the world's second-largest economy and overall global economic growth.
Analysts pointed out that the latest figures mark an important milestone in China's response to the aging of its population, which may have a profound impact on households, pensions and medical expenditures.
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In recent years, the Chinese government has been preparing for the continued increase in the proportion of the elderly population, while encouraging the younger generation to get married and have more children.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China show that China’s population aged 65 and above has exceeded 223 million, accounting for nearly 16% of the total population; during the same period, there were approximately 213 million children aged 14 and under.
The official tally was not accompanied by formal comment. However, the Global Times, a subsidiary of the Communist Party of China's official People's Daily, pointed out that the country's "entering a moderately aging society" is the result of a number of factors, including "the size of the birth population in the past" and increased life expectancy.
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The Global Times said this shift may put additional pressure on the pension, medical and long-term care systems, while also creating business opportunities for the "silver economy" that serves older consumers.
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"This reflects historical trends in population development, not a short-term phenomenon," the newspaper quoted a researcher as saying.
Prof Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor at the School of Social Sciences at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said this demographic shift has "symbolic significance" and may mean that public spending will shift more from family and education to pensions and health care.
Mu Zheng, associate professor of sociology at the National University of Singapore, analyzed that this may also pose a challenge to China's development ambitions because it may limit economic growth and people's spending power.
In fact, China's population aging is driven by a combination of factors, including rapid urbanization and the controversial "one-child policy" implemented from 1980 to the end of 2015.
Official estimates suggest that the policy, aimed at controlling rapid population growth, has prevented about 400 million births since its implementation, but this figure is disputed.
Dr Mu Zheng told the BBC the policy played a key role in population shrinkage, meaning there were now fewer young people to support the growing number of elderly relatives. Although China has eased restrictions on family size, Beijing still struggles to persuade couples to have more children, with fertility rates falling to historic lows.
Mu Zheng also added that other contributing factors include changing gender roles, rising living costs, and the pressure on fertility rates caused by rising educational attainment.
Beijing's "Five-Year Plan" announced earlier this year has included measures to further support the elderly.
Financial assistance to retirees has become an important part of China's government spending.
According to official data, as of the end of 2025, more than 53 million elderly people have received old-age allowances and subsidies.
"Global Times" pointed out that many people who are currently entering the elderly stage and were born in the 1950s to 1970s generally have higher incomes, stronger purchasing power, and better health than previous generations.
The dependency ratio is widely used to measure population aging, but some experts question its scope as too narrow.
For example, Professor Bestow stressed to the BBC that using this statistic could "deprive older people of their subjectivity" - he believed many older people were wrongly portrayed simply as dependents. He added that this also did not take into account improvements in health care.
This article was originally written in English. We used artificial intelligence to assist in translation and was reviewed by BBC journalists before publication. Learn more about how we use artificial intelligence.
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