Image source: Getty Images
The White House faces a familiar dilemma.
America's economic figures do not look very bad, but public opinion there is telling a different story.
This contradiction became a big challenge for Joe Biden in 2024. The economic data were largely strong at the time, but they failed to convince many voters that the economy was working in their favor.
Now Donald Trump also faces a similar challenge.
During the 2024 election campaign, Trump had promised voters to provide quick relief from inflation.
He had said, "As soon as I win (the presidential election), I will immediately reduce the prices."
But fulfilling this promise has proven more difficult than expected.
America's economic growth rate is still stable, the unemployment rate remains low and the stock market is near its record high.
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But the latest inflation reports ahead of the midterm elections confirm what voters are already feeling – commodity prices remain high.
However, the reasons for the challenges facing both the presidents are different.
Biden had to deal with the economic situation arising after the Covid pandemic.
At the same time, Trump is facing rising energy prices. One reason for this is America and Israel's conflict with Iran. Apart from this, the effects of some of his trade and immigration policies are also becoming visible.
However, politically, the situation facing both is quite similar.
Voters do not judge the economy by GDP figures or record stock market levels.
They look at how much money they have to pay to buy goods in the supermarket, how expensive petrol is and whether they are able to meet their daily expenses.
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A 2.2 percent growth in the US economy would be considered good by the standards of many rich countries.
Germany, for example, is finding it difficult to achieve such rapid economic growth. At the same time, the unemployment rate in America is stable at 4.2 percent. From this it does not at all seem that the economy there is rapidly moving towards decline.
Trump argues that he inherited bad economic conditions from Biden. He cites economic growth, investment and good stock market performance as evidence that his policies are working.
After the latest inflation figures came out, White House spokesman Matthew Middleton said that the current administration's "agenda to promote economic growth" has reduced the impact of the "inflation crisis of the Biden era."
Trump ally and economic commentator Larry Kudlow described the current economic expansion as "the greatest story ever told." He also claimed that "no one is going to lose their job."
But voters are looking at this situation from a different perspective. For them, the story is that Trump won the presidential election on a promise to reduce inflation and the burden of everyday expenses, but prices are still rising.
One reason for this is that the increase in wages has not kept pace with the increase in prices.
Over the past year, average hourly wages have increased by three percent, while consumer goods prices have increased by 3.7 percent.
This is why in surveys, voters are continuously giving poor ratings to Trump's way of handling the economy.
Same word, but different meaning
This situation is not new for the Democrats.
Celinda Lake, an experienced pollster for the Democratic Party, says the problem begins with the fact that economists and ordinary voters use the same words with different meanings.
She says, "When economists say that inflation has gone down, they mean that the pace of price rise has slowed down."
She explains, "But when voters say that inflation has gone down, they mean that prices have returned to previous levels. Which is never the case."
The Biden administration spent much of 2024 touting low unemployment, strong economic growth and low inflation as its achievements.
However, many voters were still troubled by the rising costs of everyday living.
Celinda Lake advised Biden's campaign in the 2020 presidential election, but was not involved in the 2024 election. He says that voters assess the economy on the basis of their personal experiences rather than economic data.
"You can't convince people by arguing about the facts of their lives," she says.
This perhaps helps to understand why Trump faces the same challenge as Biden did.
Impact of Trump's policies
Biden's critics had held him responsible for inflation. However, he could point to factors, such as the pandemic and its impact on the supply chain, which were largely beyond his control.
Trump has little scope to do this.
Some economists argue that one of the reasons for rising prices today is the Trump administration's own policies. These include tariffs as well as the economic effects of America and Israel's war against Iran.
University of Maryland economist Peter Morrissey, who is a Republican, says, "Donald Trump is clearly responsible for inflation."
"This is a result of their tariffs and their war. People know it. They see it," he says.
Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, announced in April 2025, have increased prices of goods for consumers.
According to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, these tariffs increased the prices of consumer goods by about 2.9 percent.
If Trump had not later halted some tariffs, signed new trade agreements and the US Supreme Court had not used emergency powers to prevent him from imposing many other import tariffs, the impact could have been even greater.
Image source, Reuters
After this there was another shock.
Oil prices increased due to conflict with Iran. This led to an increase in petrol prices and further increased pressure on the family budget.
The White House is touting tax cuts, increased employment and lower drug prices as proof that the government is working for American families.
Apart from this, the administration is now paying more attention to such policies which can reduce the economic pressure on the people.
Trump has demanded setting a maximum limit on interest rates on credit cards. He has also floated the idea that if the Republican Party maintains its control in Congress, every American adult could be given $5,000.
These moves reflect a political reality familiar to both parties: When voters are worried about inflation and rising prices, the arguments of strong economic growth and low unemployment are often not enough.
Biden was never able to find a way to bridge the gap between the economic performance and people's confidence.
Now before the midterm elections, the question is whether Trump will be able to do this?
If we look at recent political history, people's perception of the economy may matter more than the economic data itself.
Published by Collective Newsroom for the BBC.
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