The recent announcement by the low-cost airline Transavia of the cancellation of several flights in the months of May and June under the pretext of high fuel prices reinforces fears of paralysis in air traffic during the holiday period as summer approaches. While Europe is expected to succeed in avoiding such a crisis, travelers should prepare to pay more for their travel tickets.

Published on: 01/05/2026 - 17:46

With the continued blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, and the disruption of fuel supplies through this vital sea lane, many across the platforms are expressing fears of a crisis that could paralyze air traffic across the world.

This situation prompts travelers to wonder: Will we have to re-plan their summer vacation by avoiding flights that are witnessing cancellations and rising ticket prices?

These fears were particularly strengthened after some airlines, especially low-cost airlines such as Transavia, a subsidiary of the France-KLM group, announced on April 26 the first cancellations of their flights that were scheduled during the months of May and June, justifying their decision by the high prices of kerosene fuel and the difficulty of importing it from the Arab Gulf countries.

But to what extent do France and European countries really depend on kerosene imports? What are the flight expectations during the approaching summer period? In particular, how can travelers prepare for potential disruptions?

Heavy reliance on Gulf imports

Concerns about the imminent shortage of kerosene, the fuel derived from crude oil refining that powers most of the engines of the majority of the world’s aircraft, have been exacerbated by the impossibility of importing oil and hydrocarbons from the Arab Gulf states for several weeks, due to the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran, and in return the blockade imposed on Iranian ports by the United States.

For example, “France produces much less kerosene than it consumes. Its factories produce about 3 million tons annually while it consumes 5 million tons. Therefore, 2 million tons come from abroad, especially from the Middle East,” said Wouter Dewulf, professor of air transport business administration and academic director of the C-MAT Center, a specialist in sea and air transport in Belgium.

But the Gulf countries export not only crude oil, but also jet fuel (Jet A-1), the most widely used kerosene in the aviation sector, after refining it. Therefore, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz exacerbated the problem in a double way. On the one hand, European countries found themselves deprived of crude oil, and they also lacked refined products.

According to data from the French Ministry of Energy, 50 percent of kerosene before the outbreak of the war on Iran was refined in France, while 20 percent of the same vital substance was imported from the Middle East, while the rest was shipped from Europe or from the United States and Asia.

Is France in a better position compared to some of its neighbours?

It can be said that the situation in France is almost the same as throughout Europe. According to Terry Bruce, a professor at the Institute of Political Science and an energy expert, “the continent produces little oil, and in recent years it has reduced its refining capabilities.” Hence, the same expert explains, “Europe has become increasingly dependent on imports of refined products coming from abroad, which makes it particularly vulnerable to international crises.”

But Bruce pointed out that "France, despite this, is still in a better position than some of its neighbors." The reason, according to him, is that it remains less dependent than others on Middle Eastern energy imports. The expert gives "as an example the United Kingdom, which imports two-thirds of its kerosene needs" from abroad.

Read also: The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East prompts airlines to cancel more flights

Therefore, Paris's two main airports, Roissy-Charles de Gaulle and Orly, are likely to avoid the expected shortage crisis. This was confirmed on Wednesday by the company operating this group of airports. “Paris airport’s stock is shipped via a network of pipelines directly connected to refineries and another terminal in Le Havre,” said Christelle de Robillard, the group’s strategy director, speaking about the activities of the first quarter of this year.

De Robillard continued: “The source of most of the crude oil that feeds this infrastructure is North America. Hence, compared to others, we are in a better position.” But if a shortage occurs, it is expected that the crisis will mainly affect the remaining secondary airports in France.

Preparations to confront the aviation sector crisis

In anticipation of running out of its reserves, France maintains a strategic reserve of fuel and kerosene sufficient for two months, according to statements made by Maude Bregon, government spokeswoman and Minister Delegate in charge of Energy, on Tuesday on France Info radio. French Economy Minister Roland Lescure also pointed out the availability of about two million barrels of the same substance.

To view this content from YouTube, it is necessary to allow the collection of viewing rates and YouTube ads.

It appears that an application in your Internet browser is preventing the video player from loading. In order to view this content, you must cancel its use.

Not to mention, French airports have approximately 10 days' worth of commercial stocks, as well as crude oil in strategic reserves that can be converted into kerosene.

The French government also confirmed: “At the present time... there is absolutely no risk of a kerosene shortage in the coming weeks.”

In this context, Wouter DeWolff predicted: “Thanks to all these factors, the summer season is likely to be saved,” adding: “But the question remains: How long will this situation last? If the conflict continues [the war in the Middle East - editor’s note], this problem may arise perhaps during the fall, in October or November.”

To confront this threat, the authorities in France and the rest of Europe are preparing. To deal with any emergency, the French Minister of Economy invited airlines to a meeting on May 6 to exchange views on managing the sector during the summer season, which witnesses a peak in flights every year.

For its part, on April 22, the European Union revealed a package of measures to confront the crisis, perhaps the most prominent of which are: enhanced monitoring of its supplies of kerosene, raising the level of production in refineries to the maximum extent, not to mention European preparations for collective action that “may be necessary to maintain the functioning of the single market and ensure the continuity of supplies,” according to what the European Commission announced.

Airline ticket prices rose even before the crisis

Despite all the preparations, “but a distinction must be made between abundance and price,” says Institute of Political Science professor and energy expert Terry Bruce, who explains his concerns by saying: “Just because there is no shortage (of fuel) does not mean that airline ticket prices will not rise sharply.”

Bruce adds: “The conflict in the Middle East has led to the price of kerosene more than doubling. In fact, the cost of fuel constitutes 40 percent of the ticket price.” But for some airlines, especially low-cost ones, which adopt a business model based on maximum aircraft occupancy and low profit margins, this situation may have a significant and direct impact on their financial stability.

Consequently, companies such as Transavia find themselves forced to reconsider their offers by raising prices or reducing the number of flights on routes that generate less profits.

Read also: War in the Middle East: More than 21,300 flights canceled at major airports in the Gulf

Terry Bruce sums up the situation by saying: “It is less about fuel shortages than it is about economic returns.” He also adds, "With kerosene prices rising, a company like Transavia has no choice but to raise the ticket price. If the prices become unaffordable for passengers, and they stop paying, keeping planes on the runways eventually becomes more profitable."

Faced with this situation, the government spokeswoman's office concluded that "airlines that cancel their flights do so for economic reasons." He added that the matter is related to "unprofitable trips due to high fuel prices."

What are the rights of passengers whose flights are cancelled?

What will passengers who are afraid of canceling their tickets do? In fact, there are not many options. Airlines have the right to cancel a flight as long as they inform passengers at least 14 days in advance.

Is there any reason to worry? In all cases, airlines must either guarantee compensation for the full amount, or propose to travelers a free itinerary modification.

Despite this, airlines are not legally obligated to provide any financial compensation to customers in the event of “exceptional circumstances,” such as the current situation related to the war in the Middle East.

The original text is in French, translated into Arabic by: Tariq Balqin

Keywords related to the article

The content you want to browse is no longer in service or is currently unavailable.