Antalya (Turkey) (AFP) - Global emissions from fossil fuels are expected to decline slightly in 2026 thanks to the expansion of renewable energy and the oil price shock caused by the war in Iran, researchers said Tuesday.

Published on: 10/11/2026 - 05:05

The "Global Carbon Budget" report showed that emissions from burning oil, gas and coal, which are the main causes of climate change, rose by an average of 0.9 percent annually over the past decade, reaching a record level in 2025.

But it is expected to decrease by 0.4 percent in 2026, according to the research published to coincide with the meeting of countries at the United Nations Climate Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Turkey.

This will be the first annual decline since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic paralyzed the global economy and the movement of trade and transportation.

The researchers found that the war that the United States started in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to reducing emissions, as it led to a decline in oil consumption in light of the sharp rise in crude prices.

The deployment of solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles also contributed to the decline. The report concluded that two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand is met by solar, wind and electric vehicles.

But Pierre Friedlingsteen, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter in Britain, said: “The decline in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels is encouraging, but this decline, which is partly due to geopolitical shocks, does not represent a sustainable climate solution.”

“The long-term solution remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies,” explained Friedlingstein, who led the study published in the journal Earth System Science Data.

For her part, Corinne Le Quéré, professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia, pointed out that emissions rose again when economies recovered after shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis.

She said a recovery was likely "when oil-related tensions subside."

It is estimated that oil-related emissions fell by 1.9 percent last year, but this was “most likely a short-term response to the energy shock resulting from the war with Iran,” according to the researchers.

Gas emissions are expected to decrease by 0.3 percent, while emissions resulting from the use of coal will increase by 0.6 percent.

Overall, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to reach 38.2 billion tons in 2026.

Factoring in emissions from land-use transformation, such as deforestation, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise to 43.3 billion tons from 42.8 billion tons last year.

© 2026 AFP

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