The US midterm elections are just a few days away. The results of this election could have a profound impact on the remainder of President Donald Trump's term.
What is a ‘midterm election’?
On November 3, the American people will elect members of Congress, which consists of the Senate and House of Representatives.
These elections are held every two years, and the elections held during the president's four-year term are called 'midterm elections.'
One of Congress's main roles is to create and pass federal laws that apply nationwide.
Meanwhile, the results of this midterm election will determine which party, the ruling Republican Party or the opposition Democratic Party, will control Congress and how easily the President will be able to pursue his policies.
Additionally, the results of this election are in the nature of an 'interim evaluation' of the president's performance of his duties so far.
Who is elected?
First, all 435 members will be elected in the House of Representatives. Typically, the term of office for members of the House of Representatives, where bills are proposed and discussed, is two years.
In the Senate, 35 out of 100 seats are also scheduled to be elected in this election. Senators, who serve a six-year term, have the role of approving or rejecting bills introduced in the House of Representatives.
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On the same day, voters across the United States will also elect state-level politicians. Particular attention is being paid to the gubernatorial elections in California, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan.
What are the main issues?
The state of the U.S. economy is a top concern for many voters who are struggling with gas, food, housing, and medical expenses.
U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, partly due to the war between the U.S. and Israel with Iran in February.
Democrats argue that President Trump's trade tariff policies have also fueled the cost burden on Americans.
Immigration is also a major election issue. Republicans say Trump has fulfilled one of his key 2024 campaign promises by strengthening border controls and a controversial but widespread crackdown on illegal immigration.
In addition, concerns surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) have been growing rapidly in recent weeks. Senior politicians from both parties agree on the need to regulate AI, which is in contrast to President Trump, who has refused to enact legislation to control technology development.
What is at stake?
Congress is one of the pillars of the separation of powers system along with the executive branch and judiciary, and the legislative process can vary depending on which party takes the lead in Congress.
Currently, both the House and Senate are controlled by Republicans. However, the Republican Party's majority position is a close one. The Republican Party has 218 seats in the House of Representatives, which is the minimum number of seats required to become the majority party. This includes one independent member who shares the same views as the Republican Party.
It holds 53 seats in the Senate. In the Senate, if the parties each share 50 seats, the current Vice President, a Republican, has the deciding vote, so the Democratic Party must secure 51 seats to become the Senate majority.
If the opposition Democratic Party regains leadership in at least one state, it will have the authority to submit its own bill to the plenary session.
Which side will win?
In past midterm elections, voters tended to vote against the president's political party as if to "punish" him.
According to recent opinion polls, President Trump has a low approval rating. According to the opinion poll website 'Silver Bulletin', President Trump began his second term with an approval rating of slightly above 50%, but his approval rating fell to about 37% in early October.
Negative evaluation of President Trump reached 61%.
However, not all seats are subject to fierce competition. There are some regions where the Republican or Democratic Party's victory is almost certain.
CBS News, the BBC's American partner, selected the results of 10 Senate districts in Iowa and New Hampshire and 42 House of Representatives districts in Arizona and Ohio as noteworthy.
In particular, it is difficult to predict the election results this year due to the conflict between the two parties over the method of demarcating House districts.
The Republican Party sought to create district maps that were advantageous to them in certain states, and the Democratic Party also made similar moves.
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What does it mean for President Trump?
If the Democratic Party controls either the Senate or the House of Representatives, it will be difficult for President Trump to pass any legislation through Congress.
This will make it difficult to pursue domestic policies, but President Trump has found ways to exercise power without the support of the entire party.
Additionally, if Democrats take control of either the House or Senate, they will be able to form congressional committees to investigate various aspects of the Trump administration. Suspicions of corruption, the White House's new banquet hall, and the way Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operate may come to the fore.
Additionally, there is currently a debate within the Democratic Party over whether to impeach President Trump. It refers to the process of raising allegations against the president in Congress and conducting a political judgment, not a criminal trial, based on these.
If Republicans retain control of Congress, President Trump will be able to pursue his plans for the remainder of his term.
What does it mean for the 2028 US presidential election?
Although the president's name is not on the midterm election ballot, Trump is urging Republicans to vote for him as if it were his name, showing support for his actions so far.
Whatever the outcome of the election, experts will use it as a yardstick to gauge voters' reactions to Trump's ability to run the country.
President Trump cannot run for a third presidential election. Therefore, after the midterm elections, speculation is expected to begin about who will be his successor as the Republican presidential candidate in 2028 and who will compete as that candidate from the Democratic Party.
Additional reporting: Deirdre Finnerty
