There is a crisis in the UK, but contrary to tradition, the new government of Andy Burnham is wildly popular by the standards of modern history - the country has not had such sympathy for a leader since the early Boris Johnson version of 2020. In just over a hundred days in power, Burnham has retained the title of the country's most respected politician, despite the fact that not a single problem has yet been resolved. How did he do it and how long will he last?
Andy Burnham took over the government in July without a general election by a ruling party spooked by previous Prime Minister Keir Starmer's disastrous ratings. Even then, Burnham was not only the most popular politician in the country, but in general the only one whom more people trusted than did not trust.
Experts and analysts predicted a difficult honeymoon and national disappointment for Burnham. They pointed out that Britain's problems cannot be solved overnight, since the government has neither extra money nor the ability to influence the main reason for the stagnation of living standards in the country - rising prices due to the US war in Iran and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
However, more than three months have passed, and Burnham's ratings are still high. He even got away with the budget presented this week, despite tax increases.
That’s because Burnham gave the British people hope that, after years of chaos and inaction, the country finally had a leader capable of, if not solving, then at least openly tackling issues hitherto considered taboo, from pension reform to Brexit.
TikTok Prime
“Burnham has shown that he is ready to play for the long haul, to take on the most important and long-standing problems, to openly explain to the public both the government’s policies and their possible painful consequences,” experts from the British Institute for Government assess the prime minister.
“And it does it much better than most of its predecessors,” they write.
Photo copyright: Press Association
Indeed, critics reproached Keir Starmer for having the charisma of an iron, while Burnham is called “Britain’s first TikTok Prime Minister” and he literally broadcasts from all the irons.
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Here he is playing a Smiths song on the guitar to a Ukrainian military man, here he is climbing on a stepladder to blogger Max Klimenko, and here he is blindly tasting snacks in a pub with his own Minister of Finance.
As a result, in just a few months, the new British prime minister has halved the gap between those who are dissatisfied with the government and those who approve of it. Back in May, under Starmer, 66% criticized the authorities and only 15% supported them. Now it’s 51% to 26%.
Burnham's own rating has dropped slightly, but is still in positive territory, which is unusual for the last decade, sociologists from YouGov note.
“While the numbers may suggest the end of the honeymoon is approaching, no prime minister since 2017 has done so,” they write.
Is it just Burnham? Not really.
Small things
Burnham was somewhat lucky. All his competitors are at the bottom.
There are no rivals in the ruling party: at the time of his resignation, Starmer was one of the most unpopular prime ministers in modern history, despite the fact that two years earlier he had triumphantly brought Labor to power after 14 years of Conservative rule.
That same summer, Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK led the party ratings, but after scandals involving donations to him and against the backdrop of Burnham’s rise in popularity, Farage’s party dropped to third place.
But it's not just about luck.
Photo copyright: Reuters
Burnham immediately tried to present himself as a man of action, a friend of the voter. He bet on the theory of small things: not a week goes by without the government announcing how the life of the common man in Britain will be improved.
Burnham banned listening to music in public transport without headphones, twisting the speedometers of used cars, rewriting price tags before a sale, and fining people for accidentally entering a private parking lot. He promised to crack down on annoying debt collectors and swindlers and to reduce prices for electricity and bus fares.
People began to joke: Burnham would soon solve more serious problems. The government decree will determine that the pots fit into the cupboard normally, and that the cookies in the tea get soggy, but do not fall apart.
Big problems
Small things maintain the prime minister's popularity, but do not solve big problems. There is still not enough money in the treasury, household incomes are practically not growing, and the crisis is only intensifying for reasons beyond Burnham’s control. First of all, because of the war between the United States and Israel with Iran and Russia with Ukraine.
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Two wars led to rising prices for light, heat and gasoline, which dealt an additional blow to the British economy, already weakened by Brexit - a divorce from the closest and richest market for British services and goods.
Burnham can’t do anything about wars, except make tough statements against Russia. He's on good terms with Trump.
But Burnham decided to return Brexit to public discussion for the first time since 2016, when Britain voted to leave the European Union. After painful divorce negotiations, politicians avoided the toxic issue, but Burnham broke the taboo and promised rapprochement with the EU.
“It seems that the prime minister is ready to set the tone in the discussion on sensitive topics. And this confidence resonates with voters,” says David Henig, an expert at the European research center ECIPE.
Polls show that the majority of Britons support rapprochement and even reunification with the European Union. Another thing is how ready the EU is for this and how seriously the British will approach the negotiations.
The first stage is the EU-Britain summit on November 20. But even if everything goes smoothly, Britain will not return to the EU in the coming years, experts are sure. This means that it will not be possible to compensate for the losses from the divorce with the EU before the next elections, and Burnham will have to find other ways to revive the economy, in addition to removing barriers to trade with his largest partner.
The economy is the main concern of British voters. It is called the main problem by 51% of sociologists surveyed. Labour's political future depends on solving this problem.
Two years ago they were voted in defiance of the Conservatives. By the next election in three years, Labor at this rate risks setting an anti-record decline in living standards in one parliamentary term, notes the British research center Resolution Foundation.
Real incomes have barely grown since 2021-22, and economists see this as a continuation of a broader trend dating back to the mid-2000s. Housing, electricity and gasoline are becoming more expensive, people are getting more and more into debt.
The first major shock came during the pandemic, followed immediately by the energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. “The conflict in the Middle East threatens to deepen the decline in living standards,” warns the Resolution Foundation.
Solving these problems will require more effort from Burnham than recording a TikTok.
“We were promised a 10-year reform plan in the fall. We need details, we need solutions,” Hannah White, head of the British think tank Institute for Government, describes the difficulties of premiership after the honeymoon ends.
“The Prime Minister will have to maintain the pace of the announced reforms. This is the only way he can fulfill his promises,” she warns.
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