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An analysis of satellite imagery suggests Iran appears to be carrying out major construction work near at least two of its major missile sites, as well as rebuilding military bases damaged by months of US and Israeli airstrikes.
Satellite images taken in November showed signs of excavation and new buildings at the Garmdare military base in the city of Kheredj, near the Iranian capital Tehran, as well as at the Shahrud base in the north of the country. This was reported to the BBC Verify information department by analysts from the British intelligence company MAIAR, who studied the images.
Signs of restoration work are visible at at least 12 other military sites, including missile complexes and air bases. At the Kermanshah missile base in western Iran, near the border with Iraq, new roofs have appeared in place of destroyed buildings. Rubble has been cleared and damaged structures have been removed from the Parchin military complex east of Tehran. This facility was repeatedly restored after a series of airstrikes.
According to Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst specializing in Iran, the excavation near Shahrud may be related to missile production. He believes that since the nearby Shahrud air base has been hit repeatedly in recent years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is likely looking for ways to move its production facilities underground.
The MAIAR analyst noted that this is not the first time Iran has moved infrastructure underground to protect it from further attacks. According to Mark Mellett, a military analyst and former commander of the Irish Armed Forces, building underground facilities has another advantage: it makes it difficult for outside observers to assess the scale and degree of their combat readiness.
Speculation has grown in recent weeks that the US could resume strikes on Iran following mid-term elections earlier this week. However, on Wednesday, US Vice President J.D. Vance said that the unpopularity of the war among voters was one of the reasons for the Republicans' unsuccessful performance in the elections. The war may have cost the party control of the Senate "for the next six years," he said.
At numerous military bases across the country, the Iranian military is carrying out relatively minor restoration work on sites heavily damaged by airstrikes since the start of the US-Israeli war.
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At the same time, analysts note, judging by satellite images, a significant amount of construction work has been completed at the Taleghan-2 facility, located on the territory of the Parchin military complex. The damaged buildings were demolished, and the underground bunker, damaged by the strikes, was restored and further reinforced with concrete.
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Satellite images also show extensive excavation work at sites in Keredzh and Shahrud. Numerous vehicles are visible in Keredzh's photographs. In addition, judging by the images, modernization work was also carried out at the nearby airbase.
According to Sam Lair, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) who has extensively studied changes at Iranian military installations, Keredj's images appear to show "a new entrance to an underground facility."
Sean O'Connor, an analyst at intelligence firm Janes, said it was unlikely the construction work was being done to mislead foreign intelligence agencies. According to him, such a project “would require large expenses and would be unlikely to bring significant results.”
The work comes amid repeated White House assurances that the US-Israeli strikes have seriously weakened Iran's armed forces. US President Donald Trump described their condition as “a complete and utter collapse.”
Earlier, a Pentagon spokesman said that the United States had “destroyed up to 90% of Iran’s drone, ballistic missile and naval production capacity” and had also “significantly undermined” the country’s ability to launch missile and drone strikes.
However, Iran maintains that it still has significant stockpiles of missiles. Iranian state television this week aired footage it said showed dozens of missiles fired at the entrance to an underground facility in the south of the country.
Back in August, Iranian state television released a video that allegedly showed Khordad anti-aircraft missiles emerging from a tunnel near the southern city of Bandar Abbas.
The UK MAIAR analyst also found signs of new construction and excavation at tunnel entrances near the city of Qom, near the Fordo underground uranium enrichment complex, which has been repeatedly bombed by the US and Israel.
According to Mark Cancian, a military analyst with the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the work on military installations could indicate that Tehran is preparing for new attacks from the United States and Israel.
“The purpose of this work is to strengthen protection against possible future attacks,” he explained. “It also indicates that restoring military capabilities is more important to the Iranian authorities than restoring the economy.”
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