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After months of campaigning and billions of dollars invested, the U.S. midterm elections have finally arrived.
Recent opinion polls show that the Democratic Party has the upper hand. However, public opinion polls are not always accurate, and there is a possibility of unexpected results in this election.
Broadly speaking, three scenarios can unfold depending on the choices of American voters.
We looked at what the results of each scenario mean, what early signals to pay attention to during the vote counting process, and what impact it will have on the future political landscape of the United States.
1. Democratic Party’s landslide victory
Looking at the results of past midterm elections, there was a tendency to favor the opposition party over the ruling party.
On top of this, a president who is recording the lowest approval rating of all time according to public opinion polls, a war with Iran that has driven up consumer prices, and controversial policies such as hard-line immigration crackdowns and support for data center construction have created the conditions for a so-called 'election storm' to occur.
The first scenario is that the Democrats win a landslide victory.
The Democratic Party can not only secure a majority of 218 seats in the House of Representatives, but also secure far more seats than this. This means that the Republican Party can take away seats not only in about 10 places that election analysts classify as very close races, but also in areas that traditionally have a strong conservative tendency.
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In order for the Democratic Party to win the Senate, it must win in most of the districts where the race is currently very close. This includes states that are traditionally conservative. In particular, it would be a significant surprise if he wins in Texas, where no Democratic candidate has been elected for decades, or Kansas, where there has been no Democratic victory for nearly 100 years.
If this scenario becomes a reality, the Democratic Party could not only secure the majority in the Senate, but also take one or two more seats than the majority. In this case, the impact of the Republican Party's legal challenge surrounding the Alaska state election on the election results may also be reduced. Previously, in Alaska, the Trump administration filed a lawsuit regarding the presence of two candidates with the name 'Dan Sullivan' on the ballot, but the judge dismissed the lawsuit.
In order for the Democratic Party to achieve such a victory, it must increase voter turnout among its supporters and secure the votes of independent voters by a large margin. This will result in a reversal of the trend in which President Trump expanded support among Hispanic voters and young men during the 2024 presidential election. It is possible that some Republican supporters will vote Democratic or not vote at all.
These results will be a painful defeat for President Trump and the Republican Party. At the same time, there is a growing possibility that a fierce conflict will break out over the next two years between the Democratic Party, which has gained new momentum by firmly controlling the legislative power of Congress, and President Trump, who rarely avoids confrontation.
*Signs to note at the beginning of the vote count:
If the Democratic Party retains seats in Florida's key House of Representatives battlegrounds and loses some of the Republican seats in North Carolina, Michigan, New York, Virginia, and Kentucky, this can be seen as a favorable trend for the Democratic Party.
In particular, if the Democratic Party takes the Senate seat held by the Republican Party in South Carolina, it will be a strong signal foreshadowing a landslide victory for the Democratic Party.
2. Advancement of the Democratic Party
Opinion polls may not be completely wrong, but they may also not be completely right.
In this scenario, the Democratic Party would secure a majority in the House of Representatives by securing seats in relatively easy-to-win areas, but the gap may not be large.
In this case, the Democratic House leadership will have to constantly persuade and coordinate with left-wing and centrist members of the party to secure the votes necessary to pass the bill.
In the Senate, Democrats may only secure one or two additional seats. For example, in North Carolina, the Democratic Party's victory is almost certain, but they are unable to achieve victory in a traditionally conservative region.
In Maine, the Democratic Party may not be able to defeat Susan Collins, an unwavering Republican incumbent senator. In Michigan, progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed may fail to retain the Democratic seat.
In Alaska, the controversy surrounding the 'two Dan Sullivans' could lead to Democratic candidate Mary Feltola's defeat.
In order for this "Democratic Party's advance" scenario to become a reality, Republican supporters must also vote in large numbers on election day in response to the high voter turnout of Democratic supporters shown in early voting.
President Trump's efforts to rally support in areas where the Republican Party is traditionally strong could help prevent the Republican Party's worst defeat. In competitive areas where the gap in approval ratings between the two parties was within the margin of error in public opinion polls, the outcome may be mixed.
As a result, a 'split Congress' could be created in which different parties control the Senate and House of Representatives. This is likely to lead to political deadlock.
It would be noteworthy if the Republican Party comfortably wins across the state of Florida, and the Democratic Party only secures some additional House seats in states such as Virginia and Pennsylvania.
In particular, if incumbent Republican lawmakers with relatively stable constituencies nationwide retain their seats despite the Democratic Party's strong offensive, it is a sign that the scale of the Democratic Party's victory may be limited.
3. Republican propaganda
The third scenario is when the Republican Party maintains its majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
For this to happen, public opinion polls that predicted President Trump's approval rating lower than it actually was should turn out to be wrong again, and the Republican Party should win in most closely contested areas.
Not only should Republican supporters record much higher voter turnout than expected, but independents and Hispanic voters who seemed to have turned their backs on President Trump's policies should ultimately vote for the Republican Party.
In this scenario, the Democratic Party's control of the House of Representatives is not a foregone conclusion, and the majority party may be determined by the final results of California, where it will take several days to count mail-in votes.
In the end, the Republican Party was able to secure a majority of seats in the House of Representatives by a narrow margin thanks to efforts to adjust district boundaries to their advantage in states such as Texas, Florida, and North Carolina.
In the Senate, there is a possibility that the Republican Party will win all elections in states with strong conservative tendencies and even take away the Michigan seat that was occupied by the Democratic Party before the election.
Even if the Republican Party fails to keep the North Carolina seat or win the Democratic-controlled states of Minnesota and New Hampshire, it can at least keep Democratic candidates on edge to the end. The two regions are classified as having a relatively low likelihood of a close contest in this election.
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If this scenario becomes a reality, President Trump claims that he has reaffirmed the public's support for his administration through the election held on the morning of the 4th (local time), and can more actively pursue domestic and foreign policies based on the continued support of the Republican-dominated Congress.
It is worth paying attention to whether Senators Ashley Moody of Florida and John Husted of Ohio are comfortably re-elected.
Additionally, if the Republican Party retains its existing seats in the House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania and Virginia, and even takes away the House seats held by the Democratic Party in North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida, this can be seen as a favorable trend for the Republican Party.
