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The American midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, in an electoral entitlement that determines the balance of power within Congress, the fate of control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as the election of state governors and members of local legislative councils.
Although President Donald Trump's name will not be on the ballot papers, the election results may determine the shape of the last two years of his term, and the extent of his ability to pass his political and legislative agenda, as Democrats seek to regain the majority in Congress.
These elections are held in the middle of the four-year presidential term, that is, two years after the election of the president and two years before the next presidential election.
It does not include the election of a new president, but it represents a test of the performance of the president and his party, and an opportunity for voters to hold them accountable for economic, internal, and foreign policies.
What does this election involve?
The midterm elections involve three main levels of competition:
US House of Representatives
The House of Representatives includes 435 elected members, and the term of membership is two years. Therefore, all its seats are put up for election every two years.
The party that obtains the majority in the Council influences setting the legislative agenda, chairing committees, discussing draft laws, as well as exercising oversight over the executive administration.
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Republicans currently enjoy a narrow majority in the House, holding 218 seats compared to 214 for Democrats, with an independent representative who usually votes alongside Republicans and two vacant seats.
US Senate
The Senate consists of 100 members, with two members from each state, and the term of membership lasts six years.
Therefore, elections are not held for all seats at the same time, but rather about a third of members are elected every two years, with the possibility of holding special elections to fill vacant seats.
Republicans currently have a majority of 53 seats compared to 47 for Democrats, and Democrats need to win four seats to reach the majority necessary to control the House.
Control of the Senate is particularly important because of its role in passing legislation and ratifying key presidential appointments, including judicial and diplomatic appointments. Vice President Jay DeVance's vote will also be decisive if the two parties are tied in the vote.
State governors and local legislatures
Midterm elections are not limited to Congress, as they also include the election of governors of a number of states, as well as seats in local legislative councils and other positions.
Governors' elections are of particular importance because they exercise executive powers within their states, and may have a role in files such as managing elections and drawing electoral district boundaries.
How are midterm elections conducted?
The electoral process generally goes through two main stages:
The first is the primary election in which candidates within one party compete to choose their candidates for the general election. Voting rules vary between states; Some allow only registered party members to participate, while other states allow participation for broader categories of voters.
The second stage is the general elections in which the candidates who have reached this stage compete for the proposed positions, and the winner is determined according to the electoral rules in force in the state or district in question.
Elections in the United States are administered at the state and local level, so some registration, early voting, mail-in voting, and vote-counting procedures vary from place to place.
The battle for control of Congress
This year's elections are of great importance for both the Republican and Democratic parties, as the Democrats seek to seize the majority in both chambers of Congress, which would restrict Trump's ability to implement his political program.
If the Democrats succeed in controlling the House of Representatives, New York State Representative Hakeem Jeffries will become the most likely candidate to assume the presidency of the House, a position that comes second in the order of succession to the president after the vice president.
Jeffries currently holds the position of Democratic Leader in the House of Representatives, and if he assumes the presidency of the House, he will become the first African American to hold this position.
He will also be in a position to direct the Council committees to open investigations into controversial activities linked to Trump and those close to him. Jeffries repeatedly said Democrats would scrutinize what he described as "unprecedented levels of corruption" during the Trump administration.
On the legislative front, Jeffries said his party will focus on reducing the costs of health care, food, housing, energy and other living expenses.
If Republicans maintain the majority, the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives will remain in their hands, whether led by current Speaker of the House Mike Johnson or another Republican who wins the position if Johnson faces a challenge.
Republican priorities are likely to focus on further tax cuts, significant increases in defense spending, and broader cuts to social safety nets, complementing what was included in Trump's 2025 bill known as the "Big Beautiful Law."
The importance of controlling Congress is not limited to passing legislation, as it gives the controlling party great influence in determining the issues that the Council discusses, and exercising oversight over the work of the American administration.
If the opposition controls the House of Representatives, it can use committees, hearings, and oversight investigations to hold the administration accountable, and it can disrupt or modify parts of the president's agenda.
Its control over the Senate may affect the course of legislation and presidential appointments that require Senate approval. If control is divided between the two parties, passing many laws becomes more difficult, and the need for negotiation and political settlements increases.
What do the polls say?
Opinion polls indicate that Republicans face electoral challenges, in light of President Trump's declining popularity and voters' concerns about economic conditions.
A poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos in September 2026 showed that the percentage of support for Trump’s performance reached 31 percent in one poll, while other polls recorded percentages ranging between 32 and 41 percent.
In a poll conducted by PBS News, NPR, and the Marist Institute on September 14 and 15, Democrats led Republicans by 53 percent to 41 percent when asking registered voters which candidate they would support in the congressional elections.
The poll also revealed that Democrats were ahead by a large margin among independent voters, by 57 percent compared to 32 percent for Republicans.
Economic issues and costs of living, including the prices of food, fuel, housing, and health care, emerge as among the most prominent factors that may influence voters’ choices.
An NBC News poll reported that 55 percent of registered voters believe that Trump's policies have harmed the economy, compared to 26 percent who believe that they have helped improve it.
Immigration also represents a major focus of disagreement between the two parties, in light of the debate over border control policies and immigration enforcement.
There are indications that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans, while there are indications that some Latino voters, who tended to support Trump in the 2024 elections, may return to the Democrats due to frustration with economic conditions and some methods of implementing immigration policies.
However, a Democratic victory is not guaranteed, as Republicans may benefit from continued suspicion of Democrats, their superior campaign spending, and moderate voters' concerns about the victory of some left-wing candidates in the primaries.
How could the election affect Trump's presidency?
Midterm elections typically represent a challenge to the party that controls the White House, as the president's party often loses seats in Congress after two years in office.
The 2026 elections indicate that Trump and the Republicans, who control the House of Representatives and the Senate, face a precarious political situation.
The results could give voters an opportunity to evaluate the president's performance, and prompt the White House to adjust its course if the results are bad.
It may also give indications to candidates aspiring to run in the upcoming presidential elections in 2028 regarding the issues that concern voters and the political messages that most influence them.
Recent history highlights the impact that midterm elections can have on the presidency.
In the 2010 elections, during the presidency of Democrat Barack Obama, Republicans achieved significant gains by obtaining 63 additional seats in the House of Representatives, in light of weak American economic performance and declining support for Obama’s plan to reform the health care system.
Democrats lost their majority in the House, but maintained control of the Senate despite losing six seats.
At the time, Obama described the Republican surge as a “crushing defeat,” only to later find himself facing demands from Republicans to make significant cuts in non-defense spending.
In the 2018 elections, during Trump's first term, the Democrats responded by winning forty seats in the House of Representatives, but losing two seats in the Senate.
As attention turns to the results of the November 3 elections, the question will not be limited to which party will control Congress, but also to the extent of Trump's ability to continue implementing his political program during the last two years of his term, in light of legislative oversight that may become more stringent if the Democrats regain the majority.
A multi-billion dollar election race
The importance of the midterm elections was not limited to political competition, but also extended to the amount of financial spending on election campaigns and advertisements.
Ad Impact, a company specializing in ad tracking, expects advertising spending in the 2025-2026 cycle to reach about $11.6 billion, exceeding the previous record for the midterm elections, which reached $8.9 billion in 2022.
Other estimates by Kinetic Political Insights indicate that spending may reach about $11.96 billion, within a range of $11.5 to $12.5 billion.
Spending on political ads had reached $3.8 billion as of October 12, according to data from Ad Impact.
Much of the spending is concentrated in close races for Senate seats in Texas, Ohio and Michigan.
Campaign finance records show that Elon Musk alone has spent about $366 million to support Republicans.
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