Riga (AFP) - The results of exit polls in the parliamentary elections in Latvia on Saturday evening showed Prime Minister Andris Kohlbergs' party leading, suggesting that the country will continue on its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian path.

Published on: 03/10/2026 - 13:10 Last updated: 03/10/2026 - 23:22

But populist parties also achieved good results after an election campaign overshadowed by concerns about neighboring Russia and the cost of living at home.

The center-right "Unified List" party, led by current Prime Minister Andris Kohlbergs, topped the electoral race with 35.6%, according to the results of exit polls published by the official broadcaster LSM.

"We have not reached the end yet, but the percentage is higher than expected," Kohlbergs told reporters after the announcement.

"This means that people really want change," he added, explaining that this meant "economic growth" and "a future for (Latvia's) children." It is worth noting that Kohlbergs assumed the position of Prime Minister in May.

The current ruling coalition consists of the "Unified List", "New Unity", "Union of Greens and Farmers", and the "National Alliance". Opinion polls indicate that this bloc is unlikely to retain power in its current form after the elections.

One of the coalition partners, the Greens and Farmers Union, appeared to have finished with only 3.7%, below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

This, combined with the expected results for the other coalition parties, suggests that the Kohlbergs will be forced to form a new ruling coalition.

Although exit polls are usually reliable, voters' reluctance to declare their support for more extreme parties may mean that populist parties perform better than expected.

Roberts Kates, an analyst at the Latvian research center "Laser", told AFP, "I believe that the largest increase in the actual results compared to the exit polls will be in favor of the parties that enjoy the support of Russian-speaking voters, which are the Sovereign Power and Latvia First parties."

Sigitta Stroberga, Secretary General of LATO, stated that it is too early to accurately predict the shape of any future coalition.

She added to Agence France-Presse, "We really have to wait for the real rates, which may differ slightly from what we see at this stage."

Gains for populists

Security issues were the main focus during the election campaign in Latvia, a member state of the European Union and NATO and located on the eastern flank of both blocs.

But populist parties are expected to gain by focusing on economic concerns in Latvia, the least prosperous of the three Baltic states.

The populist Sovereign Power Party led by Yulia Stepanenko, criticized by its opponents as pro-Russian, ranked fourth with 10.8 percent according to exit polls, and could become the second largest party in Latvia's 100-seat unicameral parliament.

The party opposes military aid to Ukraine and any additional increases in defense spending, preferring to focus on domestic economic problems.

Despite its progress, it is unlikely that the party will enter the government, as most major parties refuse to cooperate with it.

Latvia First, another populist force led by businessman Einar Schlessers, may be a more likely partner in a government coalition.

The Progressives Party, a pro-European social democratic party that calls for strengthening social protection and continuing support for Ukraine, has about six percent of voting intentions.

Geopolitics and economics

Security remains at the center of political debate four years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Latvia, a member of NATO and the European Union since 2004, considers Russia its main security threat. It has raised its defense spending sharply since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and now allocates about five percent of its gross domestic product to defense.

Most of the parties expected to enter Parliament support keeping military spending at high levels and continuing to provide aid to Kiev.

But economic issues remain crucial for voters. High costs of living, low wages, pressures on the health care system, and long-term population decline are all issues that feature prominently in election debates.

Aya Laotsina, 49, an employee at the European Commission, told AFP, “I think we are suffering from excessive recession and need to develop the economy,” adding that the country needs to “work on the demographic aspect.”

Voting patterns among Latvia's large Russian-speaking minority are also changing.

While the votes of this group were previously concentrated behind the “Al-Weam” Party, which lost its parliamentary representation in 2022, many voters are increasingly making their choices based on economic and social issues rather than identity politics alone.

Once the votes are counted, attention is expected to quickly turn to negotiations to form a government coalition, a process that could be long and complex.

The preliminary official results are expected to be announced on Sunday.

© 2026 AFP

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