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Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has cut aid to Ukraine and sought concessions from Kyiv to Moscow. Now, after the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections, it will be more difficult for him to pursue a course that will encounter resistance from the new Congress. Ukraine is counting on increased American support. The BBC looks at how the new balance of power in the US will affect the White House's policy towards Russia and Ukraine.
On the eve of the midterm elections in the United States, relations between Moscow and Washington looked perhaps better than ever since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Trump envoys resumed contacts with Moscow and agreed on new rounds of peace talks. A few weeks before the vote, Trump demanded that Ukraine stop attacks on Russian refineries, saying that it was they, and not the war in Iran, that led to rising fuel prices on the American market. The United States threatened Kyiv with a complete stop in the transfer of intelligence data and blocking the purchase of American weapons. Soon after, the US President announced first a diesel deal with Russia and then an easing of sanctions. The parties confirmed that they are discussing a possible meeting between Putin and Trump together with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
Whether the US President will be able to continue this course is now unclear. The Republicans lost the election decisively. Control of the House of Representatives and Senate will shift to Democrats. Since 2022, when the country was governed by the Joe Biden administration, this party has advocated active assistance to Ukraine and all kinds of pressure on Russia. After winning the election, Donald Trump radically reduced the level of financial and military support for Kyiv, and at times openly put pressure on the Ukrainian authorities, demanding to make concessions to the Kremlin.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, commenting on the results of the US elections, said that he was grateful for the support of both American parties.
“But during elections, Democrats speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine,” he noted. “The hope is that now there will be such a balance of power that we will be supported more.”
Why New Funding Doesn't Guarantee Weapons Supply
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Control of Congress will give Democrats the ability to set the legislative agenda, direct the work of key committees and, most importantly, influence the allocation of budget funds. Ukrainian authorities perceive this as an opportunity to achieve increased assistance from the United States. According to Zelensky, the volume of already agreed upon assistance, which Ukraine never received, is about $16 billion.
“We are grateful for everything that was given, but at least Ukraine must fight for this money,” said the Ukrainian president.
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In a conversation with the BBC, experts urge not to expect large-scale changes in American foreign policy.
"Congress has limited influence - through fiscal controls, oversight, hearings and blocking appointments - but it cannot directly determine US foreign policy," Sam Charap, a senior fellow at the RAND research corporation, tells the BBC.
Brian Taylor, a professor of political science at Syracuse University's Maxwell School, agrees. According to him, the structure of power in the United States gives the president much greater weight in everything related to foreign policy and security issues: “And it is often quite difficult for Congress to impose its will on the president on these issues.”
At the same time, both experts admit: Democrats can make life difficult for Trump and members of his inner circle who are involved in Ukraine. They will also have certain tools to help Ukraine.
With control of both houses, Democrats will likely try to include military or economic aid to Ukraine in one of the budget packages, Taylor said. In addition to European support, this could strengthen Kyiv's position.
However, funding approval does not guarantee supply. Charap estimates that it will be difficult for Congress to force Trump to transfer specific weapons to Ukraine, such as PAC-3 interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, needed to defend against Russian ballistic missiles.
“But Democrats may try to tie certain funding items to other issues that are important to the White House, and thus force it to take certain steps on aid issues,” explains Charap.
According to Taylor, we should not forget that Trump’s position and lack of funding are not the only factors influencing the amount of assistance to Kyiv. For example, a huge number of PAC-3 interceptors were used in the Persian Gulf by the US and its Middle Eastern allies due to the war with Iran.
“Therefore, there is a basic production problem here that no amount of money can solve: only a certain number of interceptors can be produced per year, and there is already a waiting list for them,” explains the political scientist.
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It will become more difficult to lift sanctions
Another aspect of relations with Russia that Democrats on Capitol Hill will be able to influence is sanctions. “It will definitely be more difficult for the administration to lift sanctions enshrined in law now,” says Cherap. True, the White House will retain the right to suspend restrictions or seek exceptions - it will be difficult for Democrats to influence this.
On some issues, Democrats can count on the support of those Republicans who support aid to Ukraine. Many of Trump's party members criticized him for the diesel deal with Moscow. The recent law, which allows the US president to impose sanctions against buyers of Russian energy resources, was drafted by Senator Lindsey Graham, who died in the summer, and received bipartisan support.
“I think some Republicans who may have previously been afraid to stand up to Trump [on the Ukraine issue] will now feel less constrained because he is clearly perceived as a lame duck,” Taylor explains.
The new balance of power in Congress may also affect people from Trump’s circle associated with the war in Ukraine. Among them are Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner (both are involved in negotiations with Moscow and Kiev), as well as Elon Musk. His company SpaceX operates the Starlink satellite communications network, critical to the Ukrainian army.
The Democrats' interest in these people is connected not only directly with the war in Ukraine, but also with accusations of corruption and conflicts of interest. It is these topics that have become one of the main topics for Democrats on the eve of the midterm elections.
Parliamentary oversight "will go some way to limiting Trump's ability to get too close to Russia," Taylor said.
Now it is difficult to say how closely the Democrats are going to deal with the topic of the war in Ukraine. The main topic in foreign policy that Trump's critics talked about before the election remains the war with Iran and its impact on the American economy. Democratic candidates also spoke a lot about US relations with Israel. The war in Ukraine was not among the main themes of the campaign. The allocation of military aid to Kyiv, according to an October YouGov/The Economist poll, is supported by about half of American voters (46%). About a third (34%) are against. In general, the number of those who advocate material support for Ukraine has decreased since last summer.
“In two years you will be gone - and then what?” How Trump's defeat changes the Kremlin's calculations
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Trump's defeat in the midterm elections has another possible consequence. American presidents who have lost control of Congress often shift more attention to foreign policy, an area where the White House has much more freedom of action. According to Taylor, this scenario is also possible in the case of Trump, but this logic should be applied to him with caution - the American leader is too unpredictable.
So far, there are no signs that Trump is preparing to reconsider his approach to the war between Russia and Ukraine. On November 5, he met with the special representative of the Russian President Kirill Dmitriev. He came to the USA for an event in honor of the success of the humanitarian mission in Aleshki (Ukrainian name - Oleshki). It was said in Moscow and Kyiv that it was achieved through the mediation of First Lady Melania Trump, who received guests from Russia and Ukraine. The head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction, David Arakhamia, also came to Washington, who is actively participating in negotiations with Russia and the United States on the end of the war. Trump did not meet with Arakhamia.
After a conversation with Dmitriev, Trump announced that the United States had prepared a “big beautiful agreement” that would affect not only Ukraine and Russia, but all of Europe. US President's son-in-law Jared Kushner later clarified that the talk was about broad proposals for a new security architecture in Europe and security guarantees. They will be discussed, among other things, at trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States, which, after a long pause, will resume in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11.
The Kremlin has so far been reserved in commenting on Trump's weakening position. Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov noted that the American president will continue to exercise his powers and pursue foreign policy, and called the election results an internal matter of the United States. According to Peskov, Russia intends to achieve its goals regardless of the domestic political situation in the United States.
According to the director of the Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia, Alexander Gabuev (Gabuev in Russia has been declared a “foreign agent”, and the Carnegie Endowment is not only a “foreign agent”, but also an undesirable organization), the Russian side never believed that Trump could “fundamentally change foreign policy.”
“But he really is unorthodox, the most friendly president towards Russia,” explains Gabuev. “Plus, as it turns out recently, President Trump’s entourage and family are quite susceptible to corrupt incentives and the thirst for profit, which is also one of the Kremlin’s favorite foreign policy tools.”
At the same time, Gabuev says, Russia was unable to “convert” Trump’s friendly attitude into ending the conflict on Russian terms, including due to the Kremlin’s maximalist position, Ukrainian resistance and European support for Kyiv. The “window of opportunity” could be the period until January 2027, before the start of the work of the renewed Congress.
“But this is the window when Vladimir Putin expects to make maximum use of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy and infrastructure, so it is unlikely that we will see steps towards a truce,” says Gabuev. According to him, another “window of opportunity” may open in the spring, after the presidential elections in France, where forces more skeptical about supporting Ukraine may come to power. From the Kremlin's perspective, "any subsequent post-Trump administration will likely be tougher," so Moscow may try to step up diplomatic efforts between now and November 2028, when the next US presidential election takes place.
According to experts interviewed by the BBC, the Kremlin now probably assumes that after losing the midterm elections, it will be more difficult for Trump to achieve the result Russia needs and force Ukraine to conclude a deal on Moscow’s terms.
"Putin is probably losing hope that he can charm Trump and get what he needs from him," Professor Brian Taylor explains to the BBC. At the same time, according to him, this will not affect the Kremlin’s basic calculations and its readiness to continue the war.
According to Sam Charup, Russia is not the only player who, against the backdrop of Trump's defeat in the midterm elections, may begin to perceive his role in negotiations to end the war in a new way.
“One of the effects of midterm elections—and this has happened before near the end of a presidential term—is that other countries' perceptions of the United States and the amount of American influence on them changes because the time horizon changes. There will be less and less time left until the end of Trump's presidential term. And it may be much easier for other countries to resist American pressure,” the expert explains. “These countries are probably already asking themselves: OK, in two years you won’t be around, so what then?” How long-lasting will any agreements you enter into now be?”
*Russian authorities included Elizaveta Focht in the register of “foreign agents.” The BBC strongly objects to this decision and is challenging it in court.
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