Photo copyrightNikolay DOYCHINOV / AFP via Getty Images
Acting President of Bulgaria Iliana Yotova, who advocates dialogue with Moscow and against military assistance to Ukraine, according to the local Central Election Commission, wins in the second round of the presidential elections in Bulgaria Andrei Gyurov, a banker and former acting prime minister who is supported by the pro-Western opposition. Exit polls also predicted her victory.
After processing almost 100% of the protocols, Yotova receives 57.66% of the votes, Gyurov - 39.38%. Final election results are due to be announced throughout the day on Monday.
Voting in the second round of the country's presidential elections took place on Sunday. The candidates for this largely ceremonial but important position were Iliana Yotova, who calls for dialogue with Russia, and Andrei Gyurov, a supporter of cooperation with NATO. Yotova ran in the elections together with vice-presidential candidate, journalist and lawyer Kirill Vylchev
The presidential election took place against the backdrop of attacks by unmanned combat boats on merchant ships off the Black Sea coast in Bulgaria throughout October. The strikes, which are suspected of being carried out by Russia, have sparked international condemnation and fears that the war in Ukraine will escalate.
The first round of elections took place last weekend, with 27 candidates participating.
Yotova, who is now acting president, was slightly ahead of the former prime minister of the interim government, Gyurov, but did not overcome the 50 percent barrier. Turnout was a record low of just 23%.
In the first round, Yotova received 35% of the votes, and Gyurov - 32%. The gap turned out to be much smaller than predicted by public opinion polls, according to which Yotova was ahead of her opponent by 20 percentage points: in the first round, Gyurov was only 42 thousand votes behind her.
The President of Bulgaria is the head of state. Although the president's role is largely ceremonial, he represents Bulgaria in international relations and is the supreme commander of the country's armed forces. The president has the right of veto in parliament, but it can be overridden by a majority vote. Foreign intelligence is also subordinate to him.
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Final results are likely to be known on Monday as ballots are counted.
Expected victory
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Yaroslava Kiryukhin, BBC Russian Service
The victory of Iliana Yotova in the presidential elections in Bulgaria was expected, but demonstrated a deep generational split in society. She became the first woman elected president of the country.
With her election, one of the institutional counterbalances to Prime Minister Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria, which has a parliamentary majority, is weakening.
Yotova was his vice-president for almost 10 years, and Radev personally supported her candidacy. Although the president's powers are limited, he can veto laws. However, in July Yotova did not exercise this right after passing a budget with a record deficit of 5.7% of GDP despite protests.
According to polls, Gyurov was in the lead among young people under 30 (42.5% versus 27.1% for Yotova) and voters with higher education, while Yotova was among the elderly. In the group over 70 years old, she was supported by 56.8% versus 22.2% for Gyurov.
Gyurov also received a majority of Bulgarian votes abroad, but Yotova won convincingly in Russia, Belarus and Moldova. In the only electoral section in Moscow, almost 84% (178 people) voted for her, although Kostadin Kostadinov was in the lead there in the first round. According to Alpha Research, his supporters followed the call to support Yotova in the second round of elections.
Yotova’s unexpectedly small lead in the first round (34.76% versus 31.95%) could be due to pre-election scandals, including the pardon of a convicted drug trafficker, as well as an evasive position regarding those responsible for the attack on ships off the coast of Bulgaria.
In the second round, Yotova confidently won, gaining 57.58% of the votes. However, the turnout in both the first and second rounds was very low - 23% and 29% respectively.
One of the reasons for this, analysts say, is that voters are tired of political instability. Since 2021, eight parliamentary elections have already been held in Bulgaria. At the same time, the level of trust in Radev’s government, formed after the parliamentary elections this spring, is gradually declining.
What Yotova said about cooperation with Russia
Photo credit: AFP via Getty Images
Drone attacks have sank several ships off the coasts of Bulgaria and Romania in recent weeks, killing or injuring dozens of sailors.
Last Thursday, a container ship carrying dangerous goods was hit about 30 km off the Bulgarian coast; However, Bulgaria suggested that Russia was behind two attacks on cargo ships near its waters in October.
Both leading presidential candidates condemned the attacks.
62-year-old Yotova temporarily took over as president in January this year, and before that she was the country's vice president. She took the presidential oath following the resignation of Radev, who stepped down to take part in parliamentary elections and became Bulgaria's prime minister in April.
As the Financial Times notes, Yotova’s victory could bring Bulgaria one step closer to Moscow. Prime Minister Radev, who is more pro-Russian than any other Bulgarian prime minister in recent years, has already announced that Sofia will no longer supply weapons to Ukraine. He also refused to participate in NATO's anti-drone initiative and threatened to veto sanctions against Russia, saying "the age of the crusades is over."
Yotova, a longtime ally of Radev, supports Bulgaria's membership of the EU and NATO, but positions himself as the "president of the world" and strongly advocates negotiations with Russia. She believes that “peace can only come through negotiations.”
“The injection of additional funds into Ukraine, the supply of new and more advanced weapons only lead to even greater destruction and the death of many people on both sides,” she said.
In the final phase of the election campaign, Yotova said Russia should be brought back to the negotiating table and Bulgaria should play an important role as a “diplomatic conduit.”
“Everyone should turn to President Putin,” she told Nova TV in Sofia. “It would be much more effective if these diplomatic channels of communication with Russia were opened on behalf of the entire EU.”
What Gyurov says
Andrey Gyurov, 50, a former deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, is a sharp critic of Radev's foreign policy and a strong supporter of Bulgaria's Euro-Atlantic ties.
After the first round, Gyurov said that Bulgaria faces a choice “between two personalities, two directions and two ways of exercising presidential powers.”
“Bulgaria cannot stand by as instability and tension grow in the Black Sea; we must stand firmly on the side of our allies,” Gyurov said in an interview with FT. “We need to cooperate and prepare for possible escalation.”
During a televised debate before the second round, Gyurov criticized Yotova for not blaming Russia directly for the attacks in the Black Sea.
“Russia must stop its aggression so that further steps can be taken. Let’s name the country where the threats are coming from,” he said.
Gyurov also sharply criticized the “indecisiveness” of Yotova’s ruling Progressive Bulgaria group: “We have had information about this escalation for several months now, but no action has been taken by the government. Even the National Security Council was not convened on time, but only after the second wave of attacks, when ships sank in the Black Sea and sailors died.”
Will relations with the EU change?
Bulgaria, which has a population of 6.5 million, has experienced years of political instability and remained under Russian influence. Under Radev, it gained its first stable government in five years after a series of falls of previous cabinets, but at the same time began to retreat from its obligations to the West, the FT notes.
The president-elect likely won't be able to diverge Sofia significantly from Western policy because the country is a member of NATO and the EU, said Ruslan Stefanov, director of the Center for the Study of Democracy, a European think tank based in Sofia.
Bulgaria could become a source of problems for its Western partners, as was the case with Hungary under strong leader Viktor Orban. However, other EU countries have learned to more effectively contain such threats, especially within the European Union, Stefanov noted.
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Sociologist Boriana Dimitrova told AFP that the low turnout in the first round could be explained by the fact that some voters considered "Jotova's victory a foregone conclusion" as well as disillusionment with Radev's coalition.
The election campaign was marked by accusations from the opposition that Radev used state resources and his post to campaign in favor of Yotova, which is a violation of election law.
The Central Election Commission rejected these charges, but Gurov's campaign headquarters plans to appeal this decision in court.
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