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With two years left in his term, U.S. President Donald Trump, who has led U.S. politics for the past 10 years and brought about major changes, is facing an election that could become a watershed in future state administration.
The midterm elections on the 3rd, which will determine leadership in Congress, are held at a difficult time for President Trump's Republican Party.
Voters overwhelmingly cited cost of living as their biggest concern. With food and fuel prices soaring due to President Trump's hard-line tariff policy and the Iran war, which is not supported by public opinion, this issue is expected to be the most important consideration for many voters when they go to the polls.
President Trump, who has recorded the lowest approval rating ever in recent months, has been putting all his effort into his election campaign, leading dozens of rallies across the country.
But high prices are a concern for all voters, regardless of political affiliation. This explains why President Trump campaigned in traditionally strong Republican areas, such as visiting Iowa and Kansas in the last weekend of the campaign.
The Republican Party also poured hundreds of millions of dollars into election advertising in areas where it was traditionally strong for victory, including the Kansas Senate race.
Carrie Dan, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, a media outlet that analyzes elections and campaigns, told the BBC, "If you start spending a lot of US dollars on political advertising in states that are obviously going to win, it means they are deciding they are in a difficult situation."
He added, “The amount of campaign funds spent in Kansas will far exceed the level that the Republican Party originally expected.” This shows that the Republican Party is conducting this election from a defensive position.
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President Trump also made a request to voters at various campaign sites. Last month, he appealed, “Please consider my name on the ballot in this election,” and “Please do so.”
Of course, President Trump's name will not be on the ballot in this election. However, the fact that he repeated this appeal in Iowa on the 1st gets to the heart of an important question. Can President Trump still help the Republican Party win the election?
The answer to this question is not as simple as it once was.
President Trump returned to the White House with great influence after winning a landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election. At the time, his approval rating for state affairs was also high. Prior to that, in the 2022 midterm elections, Republican candidates made efforts to win President Trump's public support, considering his support as an essential factor in winning the election.
However, as the war with Iran continues and the economic burden on Americans grows, President Trump's approval rating has also fallen. The price of diesel, which was $3.75 (about 5,000 won) per gallon before the war began last February, soared to an all-time high of $6.52 (about 8,800 won) in September.
A voter I met in Iowa told a reporter, "Not long ago, my son was driving across the United States, and every time he passed through the state, he would call me and tell me the price of gasoline. Every time, I thought, 'Oh my God, this is really serious.'"
The inflation rate also rose from 3% when President Trump took office to 3.7% now. Economists estimate that the rate of inflation would have been lower had it not been for President Trump's widespread tariffs imposed across the world.
There are concerns within the Republican Party that this economic situation has made it difficult to guarantee election victory even in traditional Republican strongholds such as Texas, Ohio, and Kansas.
Stephen Hawkins, head of global research at public opinion polling agency More in Common, said, “The South and Midwest, or the so-called heartland of the United States, are areas where the Republican Party has traditionally been strong.”
He explained, “But it is also in these regions that the most notable Senate elections are taking place right now.”
He said, “States where President Trump won by 10 to 15 percentage points in the presidential election just two years ago have now turned into areas where the Democratic Party has a good chance of winning a Senate seat.”
Iowa, where President Trump won the last presidential election, is an area that has suffered an economic blow due to the recent surge in fuel and fertilizer prices. When voters here were asked whether President Trump would have a positive or negative impact on their support for the Republican Party, the answers they received were meaningful.
“It may be hard to believe, but in the current situation, I think the likelihood of supporting the Republican Party will decrease,” said Paul Ross, whom we met outside a crowded stadium where a college football game is being held. “I am also a Republican supporter, but I think President Trump could actually have a negative influence.”
Jack Shimp also said, “It is clear that voters are turning away because of President Trump,” and added, “I think there is also an effect of the Democratic Party’s approval rating being higher than usual just because of the person named Trump.”
Another voter, Rose Hemming, said, “President Trump dragged us into war,” and added, “Inflation and food prices have skyrocketed, and the price of gasoline has also gone up.”
This is the core of this election. Even in areas where the Republican Party has a solid base of support, many voters are experiencing economic hardship, and opinion polls suggest they may try to express their dissatisfaction by voting on the 3rd.
However, it is an overly simplistic interpretation to believe that the situation of war, tariffs, and soaring prices will lead to a landslide victory for the Democratic Party in the House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections.
Many Republican supporters are dissatisfied with President Trump, but they are not angry enough to vote for the Democratic candidate. It is a wrong judgment to assume that President Trump's low approval rating will lead to an increase in the Democratic Party's approval rating.
In fact, according to the last opinion polls conducted just before the election, President Trump's approval rating for his administration was only about 38%. Although it is a low figure, only 29% of voters evaluated the Democratic Party positively in the same surveys, including NBC's national poll released on the 1st.
Just because voters are dissatisfied, there is no guarantee that they will change their party support in the election on the 3rd.
Tim McKinnon, a Republican from Iowa who voted for President Trump in the 2024 presidential election, told a reporter last month, "We prefer not to interfere in other people's affairs," and added, "But I don't like President Trump's repeated interference in international affairs."
His wife, Michelle, said, "Of course, we did not expect President Trump to be a perfectly exemplary person," adding, "We voted in support of a fundamental part of the values he put forward."
Democrats cannot expect voters like the McKinnons, who are dissatisfied with some of President Trump's recent policies, to support them. This is because they do not think that the Democratic Party will represent their Christian and conservative values.
Tim McKinnon said, “Our beliefs will not change just because the price of gasoline goes up by another dollar (about 1,300 won).”
Even if the Democratic Party wins a large number of seats in the election on the night of the 3rd, it will not necessarily be because voters like the Democratic Party. It may just be because they dislike the Democratic Party a little less than the Republican Party.
However, the Democratic Party is already looking at the 2028 presidential election. At that time, the party must be united around a single candidate, but this is easier said than done in a situation where divisions within the party are clear. Some of these conflicts have been revealed publicly during the election, and a similar one unfolded in Michigan last weekend.
The Democratic Party will look closely at the results of this election and try to learn lessons for the 2028 presidential election. Will they be able to win in Texas? Can they win over rural voters, a solid base of support for the Republican Party? And can rising politicians like Georgia's Jon Ossoff and Texas' James Talarico live up to the heightened expectations?
If the answer to some of these questions is no, the Democratic Party will have a lot to think about over the next year. The process of evaluation and reflection within the party surrounding the election results may not be smooth.
“This election is an opportunity for the Democratic Party to significantly expand its influence,” said Stephen Hawkins of the polling agency More in Common. “Not just by increasing the number of seats, but also by changing the perception of which party can compete in which regions.”
President Trump and other Republicans tried to portray the Democratic Party as a dangerous communist force, but this argument did not resonate with all voters.
Nicole Williams, who runs a hair salon in Detroit, Michigan, made a statement that seemed to represent the thoughts of many voters the reporter met.
He said, “Anything is better than the current situation,” and “It doesn’t matter whether it’s socialism or anything else. I just wish the cost of living would be lowered.”
Gwen Jackson, another Michigan voter, said, "I'm tired of people's lack of respect for Americans. Aren't they Americans too?" This remark refers to Abdul El-Sayed, a left-leaning Democratic senatorial candidate in Michigan who has been repeatedly attacked by President Trump.
“People are just tired,” Mr Jackson said, adding: “Now they want to see change.”
Even when the incumbent president is more popular than President Trump, the party in power often loses seats in midterm elections. Considering this trend and recent opinion poll results, there is confidence within the Democratic Party that they can at least win the House of Representatives.
Democratic strategist Mary Ann Marsh cited “the cost of living issue and the war started without a declaration of war” as key issues in this election.
“Every Republican who didn’t stand up to President Trump will now realize the cost of believing he was invincible,” he said.
If the Democrats win the House of Representatives, they may try to block passage of the bill promoted by President Trump.
However, it is unlikely that President Trump will be very concerned about this. This is because he has already tried to run state affairs by bypassing Congress as much as possible and instead signing executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House.
What President Trump may be more concerned about is the various investigations that could be launched if the Democratic Party takes control of the House of Representatives.
The Democratic Party may also pursue impeachment of some members of the Trump administration. In particular, there is talk of the possibility that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will become a major target of impeachment in relation to the Iran war.
It appears that it will be a much more difficult task for the Democratic Party to take the Senate majority position in the election on the 3rd.
In this election, there will be competition for 35 seats in the Senate. In order for the Democratic Party to secure leadership in the Senate, it must increase its number of seats by four. If they lose in Michigan, a competitive region already occupied by the Democratic Party, they will have to secure additional seats in other regions to increase the total number of seats by five.
In most competitive regions, candidates from both parties are competing closely, and the gap in approval ratings in some regions is within the margin of error in opinion polls. Key Senate election regions to watch are Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska, and North Carolina.
In fact, it appears that the outcome of this midterm election will be determined in these regions.
However, as always in US elections, important points must be taken into account when interpreting opinion poll results. Past opinion polls have tended to predict the Democratic Party's approval rating higher than it actually is, and President Trump's approval rating lower than it actually is. President Trump seems confident that he can overturn the predictions of public opinion polls this time too.
However, if public opinion polls showing a surge in support for the Democratic Party are generally accurate, President Trump may face a painful defeat in a region that has been a solid support base for the Republican Party for decades.
It is still unclear how President Trump will react if he suffers a major defeat. He has repeatedly raised questions about the fairness and security of this election, and it is entirely possible that he will raise doubts again even while counting is underway or after the results are announced.
Meanwhile, this election is also a very important moment for Americans. This is because many voters are expecting real change over the next two years.
For both parties, this election will be the final electoral test before the 2028 presidential election that will determine what American politics will look like after President Trump. For President Trump himself, it is an opportunity for voters to evaluate him and the Republican Party's administration of state affairs.
As President Trump spends his remaining two years trying to shape his political legacy, one key question remains: Will a change in the leadership of Congress, which President Trump has largely bypassed, really put a brake on his administration of state affairs?
