![[Commentary] The downfall of Mr. Vucic in Serbia has many similarities with Mr. Orbán in Hungary](/api/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fichef.bbci.co.uk%2Face%2Fws%2F240%2Fcpsprodpb%2Fb724%2Flive%2Fdb1d9120-d456-11f1-906a-add2117fe3e6.jpg)
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Nick Thorpe Budapest Correspondent
When Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and then-Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met in northern Serbia last November, they could not have imagined that they would be ousted from power within a year.
Both were ousted by public protests. Mr. Orbán lost the general election in April this year to the center-right party Tisza (Respect and Freedom), led by Magyar Péter. At the end of October, the Student List, a centrist group founded less than two years ago and led by students, won an overwhelming victory in Serbia's parliamentary elections.
The Hungarian Tisza and Serbian student lists are very different. While Tisza centers on the personality and energy of the Magyar leader, Serbian students argue that they have no leader.
However, the impressive turnout of 79% in Hungary and 69% in Serbia was driven by young, tech-savvy people in both countries. They used AI tools to analyze numbers, identify threats to voting, and mobilized tens of thousands of election observers to prevent intimidation and election fraud by the ruling party.
Voter mobilization and the role of election observers played a major role in the opposition's victories in both countries.
Last weekend, Hungarian civil society organization DE sent 70 election observers to Serbia. He visited a polling station in the autonomous region of Vojvodina in northern Serbia to work with representatives of the student list.
During the summer, even before the elections were officially announced, DE held workshops to share experiences and methods gained from the Hungarian elections with Serbian students.
One key method was to identify ``infected'' constituencies in advance. This is a constituency in which the ruling party received an astonishingly large number of votes in past elections, suggesting that techniques such as voter intimidation and chain voting may have been used.
"From about 4pm on election day, we noticed masked hooligans, Vučić supporters, gathering near the polling station," Peter Klemm, a student activist from Subotica, told the BBC. "So we sent out a mobile team and started filming everything."
Klemm believes the presence of 20 to 30 volunteers at threatened polling places, in addition to the already-deployed "permanent" observers, served as a strong deterrent and prevented intimidation and fraud.
Hungary's Orbán and Serbia's Vučić both looked invincible. Both were powerful leaders who held power for 16 and 14 years, controlling state institutions and building business empires that spanned both countries.
Almost a year ago, the two met for lunch at a small and popular bakery in Subotica's town center, eating traditional burek pastries. Mr. Orban chose the one with cheese, while Mr. Vucic chose the one with meat.
The two then headed to a local winery to discuss oil and other business deals, particularly Hungary's planned acquisition of a stake in Serbian oil company NIS. The two nationalists found much in common in both business and politics. Important among them were his friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and his strong support for Milorad Dodik, head of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Serb separatist party.
A high-speed railway linking the capitals of both countries, Belgrade and Budapest, is being constructed with Chinese funds and technology.
There are striking similarities between the circumstances of these two men's downfalls. For example, Vučić conceded defeat at 9:30pm on October 25, the day the votes were counted, while Orbán declared defeat at the same time on April 12, the same day the votes were counted. Few expected either side to peacefully admit defeat.
There is also speculation that Mr. Vučić called Mr. Orbán twice on election day to seek his advice. The first time was before he admitted defeat, and the second time was at 11:15 p.m. Mr. Orban then persuaded Mr. Vucic not to use force.
Vučić denies having spoken to Orbán before declaring defeat, but admits to having had a conversation afterwards. The BBC asked Orbán for comment, but he declined.
In Serbia, masked and hooded vigilantes took up positions in central Belgrade an hour before voting closed. During voting, similar groups were photographed at many polling stations and stopped by election observers.
There is another strange numerical similarity. The Student List won 140 seats in the Serbian parliament (250 seats), the same number of seats that Magyar's Tisza party won in the Hungarian parliament (199 seats).
On election night in Serbia, Magyar was the only European leader to call students directly to congratulate them. He was probably the only one who had the students' phone numbers.
Magyar told the BBC: "It's always gratifying to hear that Tisa's story could serve as an inspiration for other countries."
Meanwhile, Ilija Srdanović, the leading candidate on the student list, said on the eve of the vote: ``Hungarian election results have clearly shown us that what we are doing here is right.''
Mr. Srdanovic was one of the people Mr. Magyar spoke to the following night.
Mr. Orban, now 63, and Mr. Vucic, 56, could face charges of corruption and abuse of power.
The judicial systems of Hungary and Serbia are similar. Serbia's Organized Crime Prosecutor's Office (JTOK) and Hungary's newly established Public Property Recovery and Protection Agency (NVVH) have similar mandates, which could lead to mutually beneficial cooperation between the two agencies.
A Hungarian company close to Orbán was also involved in the Novi Sad Central Station renovation project that sparked the Serbian student movement. In November 2024, during renovation work at the station, the roof of the station building collapsed, resulting in an accident that killed 16 people. Corruption and negligence were blamed.
"There was a widespread perception in Europe that the longer the Orbán and Vučić governments lasted, the more powerful they were," Timaru Aron, founder of Hungarian civil society organization DE, told the BBC.
"But the fact is they were getting weaker. And when society spoke up and stood up, there was nothing to stop it."
(English article How the downfall of Serbia's Vučiċ mirrored that of Hungary's Orbán)
